May 2021 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Interesting graphic. The GFS is behind the Euro and CMC the last 90 days. The Canadian has definitely gotten better the last year or two!

Hey Doug... While the Euro still leads the pack, the GFS with the last upgrade has definitely closed the gap. We are getting better slowly. I like the CMC as well in certain situations and a couple of times this past winter, the CMC did do much better. At times this past winter, I think the GFS did better also. Euro was a little disappointing at times IMO especially with QPF.

I definitely agree about the Euro. For our part of the world the Euro did not perform well over the winter, which means it must have been a much better performing model in most areas of the globe. Yes, the GFS seems to be better with the latest upgrade. It better be, the Euro is upgrading to a new version starting today if I am not mistaken.

Yep! I believe the upgrade they are making is supposed to make the Euro better with regards to tropical weather forecasting. The model has not been doing well the last few seasons so the ECMWF folks are trying to change that.

[tron777]

StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/05/11/goode- ... ther-blog/

[Bgoney]

Tomorrow morning, however, is the highest chance for sure and hopefully (I know we keep saying this) but the last one until Fall.

Don't look at the 00z GFS, Les - for 20th and 21st. Yup - more 30s for lows! LOL

Bah Humbug! Euro at Day 10 which is closing in on the above from the GFS, shows spotty rains and milder temps. It's an interesting battle that still rages on. Post 5/20, the Euro breaks us out of this (basically next week) and now the GFS tries to keep it going. EPS backs up the OP Euro so I checked the GEFS and yeah it's not like the Euro with the warmth, but it's not cold like the GFS either. GEFS has more zonal flow so probably a wet pattern again but it wouldn't be cold or warm. It's actually a good compromise between both of the more extreme OP / EPS solutions.

These entrenched blocking patterns are tough to break down. Europe is expecting another 7-10 day below normal period starting tomorrow. Our cold spell continues, we can't even sniff 70 , in mid MAY! After the 20/21, for the US and the last 10 days of May we should average close to normal or slightly above for that period , with no lengthy much above normal temps in sight for this period.

[tron777]

These entrenched blocking patterns are tough to break down. Europe is expecting another 7-10 day below normal period starting tomorrow. Our cold spell continues, we can't even sniff 70 , in mid MAY! After the 20/21, for the US and the last 10 days of May we should average close to normal or slightly above for that period , with no lengthy much above normal temps in sight for this period.

It's going to be very tough to erase the 4-6 degree deficient across the region with no 80s in site.

[Bgoney]

11am 53 cvg ,48 Dayton

[tron777]

11am 53 cvg ,48 Dayton

SS, DD for Spring of 2021

[Bgoney]

11am 53 cvg ,48 Dayton

SS, DD for Spring of 2021

The hibernation of Trev continues

[tron777]

Sun shine is trying to move in so if we can get a couple of hours worth, maybe we can get back to where we were yesterday... 62? Otherwise, 60 could be tough if the clouds do hang on. Record cold highs for the next week are still in the U40s to L50s at CVG so any records will remain safe.

[tron777]

11am 53 cvg ,48 Dayton

SS, DD for Spring of 2021

The hibernation of Trev continues

If he manages to come out in July, we could pay the price in the form of mass 90s!

[cloudy72]

GFS continues on it's below normal temperature trend

[tron777]

12Z Euro continues with the above normal temp trend and dryness as well.

[MVWxObserver]

Still a ways out of course, but prayerfully the period of May 24th to 26th i.e. will be great wx wise as my folks and myself will be going on a mini trip to an Amish region resort in Shipshewana, IN (near the MI border).

Glad that every May isn't like this one where its slow eroding of Old Man Winter-like temps (lows esp!).

Currently 50 here in G'ville and progged for around 34 Wed morning.

[tron777]

Interesting graphic. The GFS is behind the Euro and CMC the last 90 days. The Canadian has definitely gotten better the last year or two!

Hey Doug... While the Euro still leads the pack, the GFS with the last upgrade has definitely closed the gap. We are getting better slowly. I like the CMC as well in certain situations and a couple of times this past winter, the CMC did do much better. At times this past winter, I think the GFS did better also. Euro was a little disappointing at times IMO especially with QPF.

I definitely agree about the Euro. For our part of the world the Euro did not perform well over the winter, which means it must have been a much better performing model in most areas of the globe. Yes, the GFS seems to be better with the latest upgrade. It better be, the Euro is upgrading to a new version starting today if I am not mistaken.

Yep! I believe the upgrade they are making is supposed to make the Euro better with regards to tropical weather forecasting. The model has not been doing well the last few seasons so the ECMWF folks are trying to change that.

I found some more info on the Euro's major upgrade and in particular to the EPS (Euro Ensembles)

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-ce ... 6Mqrv9AnUc

[tpweather]

Guys, love the talk about the models and like I have been saying for years one model may do well on the east coast but not so good locally. Grading the models is almost impossible and yes there are certain patterns that may fit a certain model but again I have seen all the models do great in one area of the country and terrible in another part with the same system. The biggest problem I have with the gfs is that models uses to much current conditions when it tries to figure out 10 days from today. If its cold more than likely it will lean towards the cold even if we believe its going to get really warm. The Euro had problems with precip and that seems to continue. The good thing is if the models were correct all the time we would not be able to enjoy this hobby as much lol

[tron777]

Good afternoon, Tim. Nice model battle showing up still today between the GFS and Euro with regards to a big warm up next week and dry or more mild at least...70s but a daily chance for rain which would be more of the GFS idea. Tough to go against the wetter trend for next week. The weekend, right now is trending drier so that's good. We could use that.

In the short term... two more frost potential nights ahead... tonight / tomorrow morning and again now on Thursday. This pattern is not going to go away very quickly.

[MVWxObserver]

Currently 52 here in G'ville.



Hi Tim,

The next time whenever you're back in SC, it could be tough to fill up at the pump, Bro.

[tron777]

CVG managed 61 today but I only managed 59 degrees.

[tron777]

NE winds kept CVG and NKY out of the frost threat. Low 40s attm and the same with my back yard. One more shot tomorrow then can we be done with this already? Anyone in the 30s north of the river this morning?

Still looking at rain chances returning Sun night into next week. The chances of the weekend remaining dry continues to go up. We should crack 70 this weekend and in the 70s next week with daily rain and t-storm chances the way it's looking to me right now. Euro is mild next week but shows a lot of rain chances now like the GFS so that looks to be the correct way to go forecast wise next week.

[tron777]

I got down to 41 this morning. CVG at least made it down to 43.

[tron777]

StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/05/12/goode- ... blog-live/

[Trevor]

Delighted to see that the GFS has moved away from the cool snap next week. Please hold

[cloudy72]

Was 37 in my hood

[tron777]

Delighted to see that the GFS has moved away from the cool snap next week. Please hold

Now you finally come out of your damn hole.

[Trevor]

Delighted to see that the GFS has moved away from the cool snap next week. Please hold

Now you finally come out of your damn hole.

I’ve been too upset with this crap to post

[Smohler]

Yikes! I love the new forum look, but I haven't posted on here yet. I am not good with change. Anyway, catching up a little on the weather, things have been busy with doctor appts etc. for my husband and I. Never ending anymore it seems. The forum always makes me feel like home. So, i do have a question and I know it doesnt go here-- where would I post about fireworks? I have no idea how to start a thread. I really just need to know good places to buy them, seems like this year may have some shortages and I know some on here are knowledgeable in that area. So sorry to clog up the weather thread, someone just give me an idea where to start that discussion. Thank you..