September 2022 WX discussion

[tpweather]

Stretch of beautiful September weather for AVland rolling along , with no changes going forward from yesterdays forecast. The big weather news in the coming days will showcase Alaska with active weather. Former typhoon Merbok(who comes up with these names?) , will move through just west of Aleutians and through the heart of the Bering Sea. This will bring high winds and rain to the west coast of Alaska and snow for the interior. Then next week multiple low pressures smack the southern Alaska coast probably bring an AR event and flooding rains along the southern coast. It's that time of year when the east Asian jet starts to crank up and extend further east into the Pac , so storms are starting to increase in the north pac


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Great Post and this keeps Alaska on the milder side for mid-late September. The Asian jet is cranking up and usually early Oct the northwest USA starts to get in on the action as well. My 17th kid is named Merbok lol

[Bgoney]

Stretch of beautiful September weather for AVland rolling along , with no changes going forward from yesterdays forecast. The big weather news in the coming days will showcase Alaska with active weather. Former typhoon Merbok(who comes up with these names?) , will move through just west of Aleutians and through the heart of the Bering Sea. This will bring high winds and rain to the west coast of Alaska and snow for the interior. Then next week multiple low pressures smack the southern Alaska coast probably bring an AR event and flooding rains along the southern coast. It's that time of year when the east Asian jet starts to crank up and extend further east into the Pac , so storms are starting to increase in the north pac


Screenshot_20220914-060241_Twitter.jpg

Great Post and this keeps Alaska on the milder side for mid-late September. The Asian jet is cranking up and usually early Oct the northwest USA starts to get in on the action as well. My 17th kid is named Merbok lol

Lol. Are you back in NKY to enjoy this stretch of weather? I know I'll have to start watering some of my younger shrubs in the coming days and I know you've been on the low side in qpf amounts , so I'm sure you'll be doing the same. I planted grass seed about 3 weeks ago before the rains here and it looks beautiful atm , so that'll get an extra water boost as well

[tpweather]

Stretch of beautiful September weather for AVland rolling along , with no changes going forward from yesterdays forecast. The big weather news in the coming days will showcase Alaska with active weather. Former typhoon Merbok(who comes up with these names?) , will move through just west of Aleutians and through the heart of the Bering Sea. This will bring high winds and rain to the west coast of Alaska and snow for the interior. Then next week multiple low pressures smack the southern Alaska coast probably bring an AR event and flooding rains along the southern coast. It's that time of year when the east Asian jet starts to crank up and extend further east into the Pac , so storms are starting to increase in the north pac


Screenshot_20220914-060241_Twitter.jpg

Great Post and this keeps Alaska on the milder side for mid-late September. The Asian jet is cranking up and usually early Oct the northwest USA starts to get in on the action as well. My 17th kid is named Merbok lol

Lol. Are you back in NKY to enjoy this stretch of weather? I know I'll have to start watering some of my younger shrubs in the coming days and I know you've been on the low side in qpf amounts , so I'm sure you'll be doing the same. I planted grass seed about 3 weeks ago before the rains here and it looks beautiful atm , so that'll get an extra water boost as well

Yes back home. The trees have lost so many leaves because of how dry it has been at my house. I was going to plant grass seed but I was back and forth plus how dry it has been at my house. I trimmed a lot trees on Tuesday so it looks like a forest in my backyard. Will let the leaves fall off over the next two weeks and then have a few good fires for October.

[tpweather]

Not much change in the forecast from earlier except there is a trough that will try and bring a few showers in here on Monday but has to overcome dry air and yes the ground will be getting drier as well. If there is a front it should not go much further than the Ohio River. As we know when we get these fronts that stall nearby some decent warmer air could head up into the area and we could flirt with 90. A little to early on that aspect but it will be a warm weekend with temps at least 85-88 both days. Then later next week the dry and warm conditions remain unless somehow a tropical system can get involved but so far those systems have failed for many reasons.

[tron777]

Was cloudy and windy today. Couple peeks of sun this afternoon. Bite hasn't been great on this trip for bigger fish but man today.... The bite was tough today for some reason. Last day of pre fishing tomorrow. Rain is likely and for Friday day 1 of the tournament. We shall see. We need some luck. Tough finding the bigger fish this year.

[Bgoney]

Former typhoon Merbok continues making a beeline to the Bering Sea . Merbok is feeding off of the very warm sst anomalies in the north pac. He/She will move right through heart of the warmest waters, which will help cool those same waters in the coming weeks. Hopefully the waters don't recover to the warmth they currently are going into winter

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[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and another nice day. Still not many changes to the forecast and maybe a few showers Monday but not sure that even happens. We stay warm and could see a day or tow of 90 next week before a nice trough looks to invade the area late in the week. Not even sure we get a lot of rain with the change to cooler weather and this happens quite often in the early fall season. Either way temps should start to cool off late next week and can see temps in the 70's for highs and lows in the 50's at night the weekend of the 23rd. Once we get that cool shot I believe 90 degree days should be over until next May.

[Bgoney]

Recovery rains continue for the rockies with Northern Caleefornya getting in on the action

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[tron777]

Had some rain early this morning before we went fishing. Only one downpour while on the water then it got warm....80. Still expecting rain tomorrow and 60s for day one of the tournament.

[Bgoney]

Who'd have thunk the strongest tropical system to affect the US in 2022 hurricane season would be in the Bering Sea and Alaska

All attention is on a powerful storm system (formerly Typhoon Merbok)
which is rapidly deepening as it crosses the western Aleutian Islands
into the Bering Sea. Everything about this system looks highly
impressive. The central pressure is estimated at around 950 mb
and falling. The low will pass near the vicinity of Shemya around
6pm AKDT, which will provide an instrument-based reading to
estimate the central pressure. Based on a combination of real-time
surface and satellite-based observations supplemented by model
data, gale force winds extend roughly 500 miles in all directions
from the low center; storm force or higher winds extend 500 to 800
miles; and a smaller swath of hurricane force winds can be found
on the south to east side of the low center coincident with colder
air wrapping into the system. This core of strongest winds is
tracking northward between Adak and Shemya.

Meanwhile, the overall moisture content of this system is quite
extreme, a combination of advection of warm moist air from the
tropics and dynamical forcing leading to strong upward vertical
motion and heavy precipitation. CIMMS MIMIC satellite-based
precipitable water products show a large area of 1"+ TPW extending
along the Alaska Peninsula, Aleutian chain, and southern Bering
Sea - with a small area of 2"+. To put this into perspective,
this equates to 200 to 300% of normal. The heaviest rain with
this system is spreading across the western Aleutians and into
the Bering Sea, though the greatest impact is from rapidly
increasing winds and seas.

Out ahead of this storm, a vertically stacked low is tracking
onshore of western Alaska in the vicinity of the Y-K Delta.
Rain is spreading from Southwest Alaska to Kodiak and Southcentral
Alaska, with the heaviest rain focused along the frontal system
and ahead of a sharp short-wave on the south side of the upper
low.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in excellent agreement with handling of this major
fall storm, with good run-to-run continuity. As a result, overall
forecast confidence in the forecast and associated impacts is
high. The biggest uncertainty is with the exact timing and degree
of storm surge for the Kuskokwim Delta coast. This phenomena is
traditionally difficult to measure and model. However, based on
confidence in the overall track and strength of the storm, it does
look like the most impressive storm surge event in recent memory.



.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Sunday)...

Overall, the forecast remains on track. Showers will taper off
across Southwest Alaska this evening as a low over the Y-K Delta
weakens. Light rain returns early tomorrow morning as a potent
low in the Western Bering pushes its front across Southwest
Alaska. The bigger story with this low, however, are the strong
winds that will wrap around it and push into the Kuskokwim Delta.
A High Wind Warning is in effect for Kuskokwim Delta from Friday
afternoon through Saturday morning. The strongest winds (with
gusts up to 80 mph) are expected nearer the coast, though winds
could still gust up to 60 mph further inland. Given these strong
winds and the long fetch associated with the track of this low, an
extratropical storm surge is expected to affect the Kuskokwim
Delta coast. As such, a Coastal Flood Warning is in effect as
water levels could rise about 5 to 8 feet above the normal highest
tide line. No warnings are in effect for the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley or Bristol Bay; these locations are far enough from the
track of the low that they will be spared from strong winds. Winds
will still be elevated, however, with gusts approaching about 40
mph.



&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Sunday)...

All eyes are on the extratropical remnants of Typhoon Merbok as it
moves from the Western Aleutians tonight to the Bering Strait on
Saturday. A High Wind Warning is currently in effect for the
Western and Central Aleutians through tomorrow morning, with gusts
up to 90 mph expected as cold air wraps around this low. As the
low continues moving north across the Western and Central Bering
Sea tomorrow morning, hurricane force winds and seas up to 50 ft
will follow it. The next land area to be impacted will be the
Pribilof Islands, for which High Wind Warnings are in effect from
Friday morning through early Saturday morning. With the low center
entering the Bering Strait by Saturday morning, winds should
slowly subside across the Bering Sea through early Sunday morning.
Aside from a few showers, calmer conditions should prevail on
Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...

Merbok remains the main concern through the end of this week. As
this system enters the Bering Sea it is expected to re-intensify
and go through the extra-tropical transition as is ingesting cold
air from eastern Russia. There is very minor uncertainty regarding
the exact track and strength of this storm as the center of the
low expected to pass over Shemya this afternoon. It will then
track from the Western Bering Sea to the vicinity of Norton Sound
on Saturday. Expect widespread storm force winds across the
Bering with areas of hurricane force winds. The hurricane force
winds are most likely from the Western Aleutians to the Central
Bering Sea between this afternoon and Friday evening. Seas are
also expected to build rapidly with widespread 30 to 40 ft seas
across much of the Bering with 40 to 50 ft seas associated with
the strongest winds. This is a major Bering Sea Storm and mariners
are encouraged to enact

[tpweather]

Bgoney,interesting storm to say the least but with the really above normal water temps very far north I understand why a storm can become this strong. I love to study storms like this and see how the models handle something that is sort of off the scales.

[tpweather]

Good Morning an another nice day though warming up each day by a few degrees but humidity still not bad. Not many changes once again as we may see a little rain Monday but not sold on that and most likely the rains will be light and further north. Then we have 2 days Tuesday and Wednesday where we heat up with some humidity and maybe we hit 90. Thursday will be another warm day but a cold front on the door step. How quickly that gets through here will have much to do with the tropical system. After the tropical moves away cooler air is no doubt in the forecast. I can still see next weekend with 70's for highs and 50's for lows and if the trough digs a little deeper the following week could really be the first true preview of fall and temps may not get out of the 60's and lows well into the 40's.

[tron777]

Good morning from a rainy Cass Lake MN! Hopefully we will have a good showing this afternoon at the weigh in! See the AV fishing and hunting thread to watch it online. Boat 35 is my brother. 74 boats in total.

[Bgoney]

Bgoney,interesting storm to say the least but with the really above normal water temps very far north I understand why a storm can become this strong. I love to study storms like this and see how the models handle something that is sort of off the scales.

Satellite pics should be awesome later. I think ensembles did pretty well with the strength and track from a few days back, but there's probably not as many complications in this area as opposed to the Atlantic

[Bgoney]

30 minutes ago, NOAA buoy 46035 in the south central Bering Sea about 275 miles west of St. Paul, 310 miles north of Adak as of 7am AKDT. Seas up to 45 ft (13.7m). Pressure down to 953mb and falling rapidly.

[tron777]

30 minutes ago, NOAA buoy 46035 in the south central Bering Sea about 275 miles west of St. Paul, 310 miles north of Adak as of 7am AKDT. Seas up to 45 ft (13.7m). Pressure down to 953mb and falling rapidly.

I've been in 20 footers before and that was spooky. I couldn't imagine 45 footers! Wow!!!

[Sargent51]

30 minutes ago, NOAA buoy 46035 in the south central Bering Sea about 275 miles west of St. Paul, 310 miles north of Adak as of 7am AKDT. Seas up to 45 ft (13.7m). Pressure down to 953mb and falling rapidly.

I've been in 20 footers before and that was spooky. I couldn't imagine 45 footers! Wow!!!

Hopefully Deadliest Catch is filming right now.

[tron777]

30 minutes ago, NOAA buoy 46035 in the south central Bering Sea about 275 miles west of St. Paul, 310 miles north of Adak as of 7am AKDT. Seas up to 45 ft (13.7m). Pressure down to 953mb and falling rapidly.

I've been in 20 footers before and that was spooky. I couldn't imagine 45 footers! Wow!!!

Hopefully Deadliest Catch is filming right now.

No doubt!

[Bgoney]

Forecasted storm surge for Nome flirting with other records

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[Bgoney]

Update from the buoys:

Updated weather and wave observations from NOAA buoy 46035, located in the south central bering Sea 275 miles (450km) west of St. Paul Island. Max significant wave height was 51.8 ft (15.8 m

[tpweather]

Good Morning and a warm and dry weekend in store.Monday there is a chance of a few showers but not expecting to much in the way of rainfall and many folks should remain dry especially further south. Then we get 2 hot days on Tuesday and Wednesday and yes we will be close to 90 each day. Then a wonderful cold front will arrive on Thursday and again early fall cold fronts tend to have less moisture involved but I can see a few showers as the front moves through. Friday looks great and how does the low to mid 70's sound for highs. With the tropical system missing out to sea the front should sweep through and bring the wonderful weather. Are the 90 degree days over after Wednesday and I believe they are which means we end up with a near normal year in the amount of 90's.

[tron777]

Good morning! Our final day in Cass Lake and severe storms are possible this afternoon. Hope it stays away until the weigh in is over!

[tpweather]

Good Morning and still not many changes to the forecast. Still a chance of some rainfall Monday and the problem is how much precip is left once it makes to the local area. Folks north and especially northwest have the best shot of getting rainfall and some areas towards Indy could see maybe 1/2 inch or so but it will dying off as the complex heads southeast. Tuesday and Wednesday should be the last two days of hitting 90 this season and neither is a lock though. Thursday is the day we go from summer to fall and with that strong of a front a few showers may come with the front but it will be moisture starved. Next weekend looks great for the most part with highs in the low 70's and lows near 50 with some outlying areas getting into the 40's.

[tron777]

On the road again. We spent the night in Eau Claire WS.

[tron777]

34 miles from Indy and about 2 1/2 hours from home.