Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2022-2023

[tpweather]

I get excited too, just like when I was a kid lol Weak E?NSO events are best for us in the Ohio Valley. This Nina is going to be at least peaking at a moderate intensity so it's not all bad news. Just concerned about the +QBO, -IOD potentially leading to a +AO or a cold polar vortex that may keep the cold air wrapped up to the north. Hopefully that is not the case, we'll see. It is late August as you said and many things can change in the next 3 or 4 months prior to winter coming.

What do you guys make of the PDO. The cooler waters along the California coast of last year have eroded and I'm assuming will flip to all warmer than normal by late fall , to go along with the ever expanding blob-2.0 creeping it's way eastward in the NPac

I've been watching that. It has been negative and with a Nina you would expect that to be the case. However, as rare as a +PDO is during a Nina, it can happen and we have seen it before. Currently, it is warming and we'll need to keep an eye on it to see if further warming occurs and also if it holds. Right now in the N PAC and Gulf of Alaska, I am liking what I am seeing. Just hope that look of the SST's continues.

The N PAC and Gulf of Alaska look good at the moment but I always watch in October when that area can get hit with storm after storm and the waters get colder. Only time will tell and October into early November seems to be the time when things have played out some.

[tron777]

The N PAC and Gulf of Alaska look good at the moment but I always watch in October when that area can get hit with storm after storm and the waters get colder. Only time will tell and October into early November seems to be the time when things have played out some.

Exactly Tim... we have a long ways to go! A lot of folks are thinking 2010-2011 for an analog but that was a -PDO. The water was warm in Aug but cooled in Sept and Oct so just an example of what you're talking about. Whereas in 2013-2014 we sawe the warmth and it stayed there and controlled the pattern. You just never know what is going to be in the drivers seat. That changes from week to week month to month as well. These things are what makes our job that much tougher.

[tron777]

[airwolf76]

Yeah I did notice and see the PDO when looking at the SST map. I def like what I am seeing there but like Tim and I said before you really need about another 2 months to see whats what yet before making a long range call for early winter

[tron777]

Yeah I did notice and see the PDO when looking at the SST map. I def like what I am seeing there but like Tim and I said before you really need about another 2 months to see whats what yet before making a long range call for early winter

Completely agree Charles. Without question you should wait until November to make an actual prediction. Hopefully our discussions in here leading up to November will help us out.

[airwolf76]

Yeah I did notice and see the PDO when looking at the SST map. I def like what I am seeing there but like Tim and I said before you really need about another 2 months to see whats what yet before making a long range call for early winter

Completely agree Charles. Without question you should wait until November to make an actual prediction. Hopefully our discussions in here leading up to November will help us out.

I am going to post some of my thoughts next month and then again around Halloween or so

[tron777]

Yeah I did notice and see the PDO when looking at the SST map. I def like what I am seeing there but like Tim and I said before you really need about another 2 months to see whats what yet before making a long range call for early winter

Completely agree Charles. Without question you should wait until November to make an actual prediction. Hopefully our discussions in here leading up to November will help us out.

I am going to post some of my thoughts next month and then again around Halloween or so

Sounds good! Looking forward to reading your thoughts and ideas! If that PDO region continues to warm and we don't lose it, will this Nina act like a Nino? Seeing some guidance suggesting that possibility, but as we've said, way too early op have any confidence at all. Just brain storming and tossing ideas around. That's about all we can do for the next couple of months.

[tpweather]

Just trying to do a little research this morning and found something that may mean nothing but you never know. During the 70's. Between 1970 and 1975 all the winters were La Nina except 1972 which was a strong El Nino. I remember that year because we may have had one night below 20 degrees and very little snow. Of course the years 1976-79 we had 3 of the 4 years with a weak El Nino and one neutral season in 1978 and we know how those winters turned out. After this year will we see another La NIna or will we head towards several years of El Nino conditions. Usually the best winters for us are weak El Nino's as we are able to get cold but also usually a very stormy period.

[tron777]

Just trying to do a little research this morning and found something that may mean nothing but you never know. During the 70's. Between 1970 and 1975 all the winters were La Nina except 1972 which was a strong El Nino. I remember that year because we may have had one night below 20 degrees and very little snow. Of course the years 1976-79 we had 3 of the 4 years with a weak El Nino and one neutral season in 1978 and we know how those winters turned out. After this year will we see another La NIna or will we head towards several years of El Nino conditions. Usually the best winters for us are weak El Nino's as we are able to get cold but also usually a very stormy period.

Some of those Nina winters in the 70s were strong ones too and as you know, during a strong ENSO Phase whether it be Nina or Nino, we usually don't do well in the cold and snow dept. As you said, weak ENSO events are usually best for us. Weak Nino or Weak Nina. We've been lucky a time or two with a moderate ENSO event, like 2010-2011 which was a moderate Nina. But something else probably drove the bus that season. Like for example, 2013-2014 is considered to be an ENSO Neutral year but as we know, the Pacific drove the bus in the PDO and EPO domains. The Arctic domains (AO and NAO) were both ragingly positive, yet that winter was cold and snowy thanks to ridging along the West Coast of North America. So far, we have a moderate Nina right now, and hopefully it doesn't get strong, or if it does, it weakens rapidly. Lots of time to watch. The PDO Region right now is very interesting! If those warmer waters in the Gulf of Alaska and N Pacific can hold, I am very optimistic for this winter esp December. We'll see as usual.

[tpweather]

Les it always scares me when I see those warm waters this time of year in the Gulf of Alaska and N Pacific. Always hard to stay warm as October usually brings many storms to that area and yes it will cool waters some but how much is the key. Come Dec 1 and those waters are still warm I will become one happy camper.

[tron777]

Les it always scares me when I see those warm waters this time of year in the Gulf of Alaska and N Pacific. Always hard to stay warm as October usually brings many storms to that area and yes it will cool waters some but how much is the key. Come Dec 1 and those waters are still warm I will become one happy camper.

Totally agree... if it's still there even by Thanksgiving I'll be happy!

[tron777]

Interesting write up here folks if you have the time to glance over it about the Polar Vortex.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/configurab ... 0413.1.xml

Title of Paper: How Do Stratospheric Perturbations Influence North American Weather Regime Predictions?

Here's the abstract from the paper to give you a brief overview of what it's about. It's pretty technical, even for me!

The impact of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex on persistent weather regimes over North America is so far underexplored. Here we show the relationship between four wintertime North American weather regimes and the stratospheric vortex strength using reanalysis data. We find that the strength of the vortex significantly affects the behavior of the regimes. While a regime associated with Greenland blocking is strongly favored following weak vortex events, it is not the primary regime associated with a widespread, elevated risk of extreme cold in North America. Instead, we find that the regime most strongly associated with widespread extremely cold weather does not show a strong dependency on the strength of the lower stratospheric zonal mean zonal winds. We also suggest that stratospheric vortex morphology may be particularly important for cold air outbreaks during this regime.

[Wxlrnr]

You have to love research papers. Read way too many over the years, lots of words in a nonsensical way.

I just saw a tweet on Mike's Weather page from @BenNollWeather about the trade winds June to August being close to record levels. He had some graphs and mentioned possible analogs for winter for similar past years.

[tron777]

You have to love research papers. Read way too many over the years, lots of words in a nonsensical way.

I just saw a tweet on Mike's Weather page from @BenNollWeather about the trade winds June to August being close to record levels. He had some graphs and mentioned possible analogs for winter for similar past years.

Thanks for posting this Linn. I looked up Ben's tweet and these are the analogs he posted:

2010, 1999, 2007, 1988, 2011, 2000 & 1998.

2010 was a great winter! Snowiest December on record for CVG. 1999 was a clunker. 2007 was also until the March 2008 storm came along to save us from getting a dud. 1988 wasn't too good and the same can be said for 2011. 2000 was a good winter while 1998 wasn't. So as usual when using analogs, you'll find a mixed bag. I know one thing, we don't want the Nina to be strong. If it does achieve this (and it may), if it weakens rapidly, late winter can be salvaged. Just speculating since it's early.

[tron777]

Folks... below are the updated Euro seasonal 500 MB Maps for October thru March 2023. The mean 500 MB Height Anomaly pattern is being shown. Red areas are ridges, or positive heights where the blue areas are troughs, or below avg heights. I will have some analysis at the bottom of each image for your discussion and consideration.

EuroSeasonalOND.png

In the first image, you can see a flat Aleutian ridge (where we would want it more poleward). This invites troughs to dip into SW Canada and the Pacific NW. An up and down pattern for troughs and ridges is expected for us with the main ridge a bit west of us so cold fronts from time to time can still sneak through. Not a terribly warm or cold looking pattern, Typical for Autumn honestly.

EuroSeasonalNDJ.png

The Aleutian Ridge is not as flat. More stout and trying to go a little more poleward so we get a sharper jet with more ridging Wet, some troughiness East. Coldest of air still NW of us as is typical in late fall and early winter.

EuroSeasonalDJF.png

Pattern improving still from the last image as the cold air begins to take over more real estate and finally begin to bleed south. More -NAO episodes and -AO possible with a more favorable Pacific in the EPO / PNA domains.

EuroSeasonalJFM.png

In the last image, we lost the -NAO now but Pacific still favorable even for some late season fun but def torchy periods possible. Pattern can change more frequently without blocking esp in the NAO domain.

In conclusion, you'd expect snowy and cold periods early being possible with later on in Dec / January looking to have potential if not early Feb too then you see spring coming later in Feb and March with a surprise at the tail end of winter always being possible. Kind of my take on those maps. Thoughts folks?

[Bgoney]

Without getting to specific with the actual weather effects, I'll give my interpretation of what the 500mb could be from those maps.

First 2 I agree , it appears a -NAO would be in place periodically, for the pac side, I don't like where the anomalis ridge is located south of the Aleutians, you can see the maps hinting at a weakness in the eastern extent of the ridge or troughyness in the western states and ridging again in the middle of the country. So I think that could mean a -PNA, but depending on the strength of the -NAO, would determine if that is good or bad for the OV. Last map I think the pac is about the same scenario but with a more frequent +NAO, which probably would lead to warmer intrusions. A broadbrushing interpretation bit it is only September

[tron777]

Without getting to specific with the actual weather effects, I'll give my interpretation of what the 500mb could be from those maps.

First 2 I agree , it appears a -NAO would be in place periodically, for the pac side, I don't like where the anomalis ridge is located south of the Aleutians, you can see the maps hinting at a weakness in the eastern extent of the ridge or troughyness in the western states and ridging again in the middle of the country. So I think that could mean a -PNA, but depending on the strength of the -NAO, would determine if that is good or bad for the OV. Last map I think the pac is about the same scenario but with a more frequent +NAO, which probably would lead to warmer intrusions. A broadbrushing interpretation bit it is only September

We do run the risk if the Aleutian ridge is flat getting a -PNA. Last December the -PNA was record setting giving us the second warmest Dec on record at CVG. There's a lot of talk about a good December this year, just as there was last year. But the importance of the Aleutian Ridge's shape or position is critical for an early start to winter. Although last December was highly unusual, even if we get a -PNA you wouldn't expect it to be record setting again but the risk of a warmer then normal Dec is there. Last great Dec was 2010 yes it's been that long! Typically you lose winter sometime in Feb with a Nina and the above maps certainly imply that.

[tron777]

You can see the CAN CIPS Sept run on Tropical Tidbits so I won't post all of the images, just go here:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 90100&fh=2

A warm Nov with a -PNA / SE Ridge. +PNA develops in Dec and continues thru Jan. Almost looks like a clipper pattern with SW US ridging and a dominant polar jet. Begins to break down in Feb, although late. -PNA with a SE ridge comes back for March.

[Bgoney]

Off the charts bookend sst anomalies , in the NW pac and again in the NW Atlantic.. As of the Last decade+, that kind of Warmth in the pac coincides with a dominant ridge nearby, have to do a little more digging to see what the dominant feature is with the Atlantic warmth and position

ssta.daily.current.png

[tron777]

Off the charts bookend sst anomalies , in the NW pac and again in the NW Atlantic.. As of the Last decade+, that kind of Warmth in the pac coincides with a dominant ridge nearby, have to do a little more digging to see what the dominant feature is with the Atlantic warmth and position


ssta.daily.current.png

One thing we would like to see are the warmest Anomalies in the NPAC / Gulf of Alaska (GOA) region to be closer to the West coast of North America versus it being SW of the Aleutians. That situation has improved some as long as the GOA keeps warming that is. If I recall, we know that 2013-2014 had the "warm blob" in the right spot on the Pacific side. I also believe that the N ATL S of Greenland and off the East Coast was also warmer then normal. It's a good QBO match, both Westerly., but not a good ENSO match. It was neutral the winter before that and in 2013-2014. This year is of course the triple dip Nina which we have a low sample size of and can't really base much off of it other then usual Nina conditions.

[tpweather]

Another sign of winter heading this way is below 32 degrees daytime highs in parts of Northern Canada. Saw the first one yesterday and again they will go back and forth for a few weeks before they stay below 32 for a long period.

[tron777]

Another sign of winter heading this way is below 32 degrees daytime highs in parts of Northern Canada. Saw the first one yesterday and again they will go back and forth for a few weeks before they stay below 32 for a long period.

Seeing some patchy snow cover in Siberia showing up now too.

[tron777]

From the French:

French.png

A nice solution for cold and snow in December, esp for the East Coast.

JMA.png

The JMA I think is a bit more reasonable, not as weenie looking as the French model but some +PNA and an east based -NAO is there for December. Def would have cold and snow potential with that look too. For once... can we break the crappy December trend or will it be -PNA city / SE ridge again? Stay tuned...

[tron777]

UKIE is very warm - zonal Pacific flow because of a strong La Nina. Much stronger then 2010-2011. French model was colder due to a weaker Nina collapsing it earlier. Some are thinking this Nina has peaked. I am in no way convinced. UKIE maybe overdone but I don't think it is ready to weaken yet by any means.

UKIE.png

[tpweather]

Les I love seeing these seasonal forecasts but I believe they are very similar in many respects to the long range maps that go out 15 days or so. To much of what is happening at the moment tends to be put into the models and this always seems to cause problems. One of these may be correct but going to wait until at least mid-Oct and see what the same models are showing.