May 2021 Weather Discussion

All weather related things can be found here! From snow storms to severe weather including the best model analysis and long range forecasting around!
MVWxObserver
Hurricane
Posts: 6429
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:48 pm
Location: Greenville, OH

Re: May 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by MVWxObserver »

Yes, my area and others could use an inch to inch and a half or how much more than that north of I-70. :) Haven't had an inch or so in quite a while. :thumbup:

Currently 57 here in G'ville.

On a sports note re the Redlegs vs Indians series in Cleveland this Mother's Day weekend; could be a delay this evening, looks fine for Sat evening, and then probably a washout for Sun afternoon.
Last edited by MVWxObserver on Fri May 07, 2021 5:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Eric

Greenville, OH
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22880
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: May 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

Bgoney wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 2:38 pm
tron777 wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 2:10 pm 12Z GFS has 0.51" for CVG on Mother's Day while the Euro checks in with 2.02" Pretty large model spread with regards to where the warm front sets up shop.
Hoping the further north solution wins . We just don't need the rain in our area. Ground is pretty much saturated already and with the cool temps, more would be detrimental to some plants and a waste. They need it up north worse as they have been considerably dryer this spring
Completely agree. Areas in S Mich need it versus Ohio or IN.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22880
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: May 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

We may see this again Monday night also:

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures in the middle 30s will result in frost
formation.

* WHERE...Portions of East Central and Southeast Indiana,
Northeast and Northern Kentucky and South Central, Southwest
and West Central Ohio.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left
uncovered.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
Bgoney
Tropical Storm
Posts: 4353
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:09 pm
Location: East clermont, 3mls north of Williamsburg

Re: May 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by Bgoney »

Dang , was planning to mow this evening, when I walked in the yard, it was soaked, checked the gauge from overnight rains and another .75" had fallen. I had no idea that much fell overnight IMBY. Maybe tomorrow I can get it done
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22880
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: May 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

I had a passing shower about 20 or 30 mins ago. Dropped 0.01" :lol:
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
MVWxObserver
Hurricane
Posts: 6429
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:48 pm
Location: Greenville, OH

Re: May 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by MVWxObserver »

tron777 wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 3:29 pm
Bgoney wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 2:38 pm
tron777 wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 2:10 pm 12Z GFS has 0.51" for CVG on Mother's Day while the Euro checks in with 2.02" Pretty large model spread with regards to where the warm front sets up shop.
Hoping the further north solution wins . We just don't need the rain in our area. Ground is pretty much saturated already and with the cool temps, more would be detrimental to some plants and a waste. They need it up north worse as they have been considerably dryer this spring
Completely agree. Areas in S Mich need it versus Ohio or IN.
Prayerfully several areas can cash in nicely, Bro! :thumbupleft:

My folks and myself i.e. could use at least an inch as we have some fresh soil filled in on a former Sugar Maple stump hole in our back yard. :)
Eric

Greenville, OH
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22880
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: May 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

Nice down pour coming in that could drop a tenth of an inch or more depending on how it tracks. Going to have to wait a bit to prep the smoker for tomorrows cook. :lol:
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22880
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: May 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

Nothing here but light rain here, but are there any posters in Oxford, Hamilton, Forest Park or Middletown areas seeing small pea sized hail with any of these showers?
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
Browneyedgirl
Heavy Rain
Posts: 110
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 10:19 pm
Location: Liberty Township, Butler County

Re: May 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by Browneyedgirl »

We just had a gusty downpour here but no hail.
Lisa
Liberty Township, Butler County


Still learning all this weather stuff!
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22880
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: May 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

Browneyedgirl wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 6:54 pm We just had a gusty downpour here but no hail.
Thanks Lisa. I saw some brighter colors on the radar so I wasn't sure if there was any hail involved. Hope someone out there sees it to confirm my thoughts. Freezing level is low only about 5-6000 feet in the upper levels with very cold air aloft. Good for small hail formation if you get a strong enough updraft with any of these cells. The action should die down after sunset. We'll clear out after midnight and turn cold.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
cloudy72
Tropical Depression
Posts: 2168
Joined: Sat Feb 27, 2021 8:22 am
Location: Miamisburg, OH

Re: May 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by cloudy72 »

Didn’t witness any hail but had a nice downpour and some lightning earlier.
Mike B.
Miamisburg, OH

The KING of the domes! :king:

Image
MVWxObserver
Hurricane
Posts: 6429
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:48 pm
Location: Greenville, OH

Re: May 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by MVWxObserver »

Picked up another .20" for Fri for a combo of .40" since Thurs. :)

Progged for 34 on Sat morning.
Eric

Greenville, OH
tpweather
Hurricane
Posts: 6180
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 6:04 pm
Location: Edgewood

Re: May 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by tpweather »

Good Morning and looks like most of today will be dry until maybe after dark tonight. Another decent rain expected Sunday and 1/2-1 inch locally looks like a good call. Heavier rains will be north of here even though the amounts have come down as the system is moving rather quickly plus the warm surge is not as great as I thought it might be. Next week looks much drier though cool and just a chance of showers late in the week but nothing major on the horizon. Severe weather really has been a dud this season and I was expecting a much bigger output but the cooler than normal weather has put a damper on the severe season. Again we have about 2 more months until most of the severe season is over though any thunderstorm in the summer can produce a severe threat but the main severe season usually ends no later than mid-July. Had a thunderstorm last night and dumped about .25 inch in a short period of time.
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22880
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: May 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

No frost here, but I managed to drop to 35 this morning.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
cloudy72
Tropical Depression
Posts: 2168
Joined: Sat Feb 27, 2021 8:22 am
Location: Miamisburg, OH

Re: May 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by cloudy72 »

No frost here either that I saw and it dropped to 36.
Mike B.
Miamisburg, OH

The KING of the domes! :king:

Image
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22880
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: May 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

12Z NAM only has 0.42" at CVG for tonight and tomorrow. Low tracks along I-70 so for those S of there... it won't be cold. 65 to 70 degree range for highs. 40s and 50s if you are north of the front say Northern counties of our forecast area... like Eric for example. Warm front is going to be close to his hood, perhaps a touch south of there.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
young pup
EF4 Tornado
Posts: 733
Joined: Wed Mar 03, 2021 7:13 pm
Location: Grandview ( Westside of downtown CMH)

Re: May 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by young pup »

Have not checked the rain gauge until yesterday morning. Another 1.10 in it. Dumped it and then yesterday afternoon into the evening another half inch fell. All this rain tomorrow can go further north.
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22880
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: May 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

GFS has 2" for the I-70 Crew and an inch for us down here.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22880
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: May 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

12Z Euro agrees with the 1" south to 2"+ call north.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
MVWxObserver
Hurricane
Posts: 6429
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:48 pm
Location: Greenville, OH

Re: May 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by MVWxObserver »

Day 2 Mother's Day ...
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Eric

Greenville, OH
User avatar
Bgoney
Tropical Storm
Posts: 4353
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:09 pm
Location: East clermont, 3mls north of Williamsburg

Re: May 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by Bgoney »

HMD to those that apply.

Much needed rain to our north this morning, thankfully. CVGland will see on and off showers later this morning. On going amounts look good, .50-1.0" for cvgland
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
User avatar
Bgoney
Tropical Storm
Posts: 4353
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:09 pm
Location: East clermont, 3mls north of Williamsburg

Re: May 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by Bgoney »

Been a long time since I've seen the PAC SSTs as a whole this cool or near normal. NOAA will probably hatch a new color scheme if this continues to bring out more reds for dramatics
Screenshot_20210509-073621_Chrome.jpg
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
tpweather
Hurricane
Posts: 6180
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 6:04 pm
Location: Edgewood

Re: May 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by tpweather »

Bgoney two great posts this morning. The warm oceans in the Atlantic is one that sticks out compared to its counterpart in the pacific. This tells me that Atlantic tropical system could be very busy and maybe an early start to the season. Nice to see the rains to the north and though we are below normal especially for the March/April time period the cooler than normal temps helps keep much of the moisture in the ground. Is there a chance for severe weather this afternoon and how much instability can we get in the afternoon is key because the winds fields are strong and if we can get that period where the sun comes out and temps rise quickly this could enhance some of the storms later this afternoon into the early evening. Just something to watch and not expecting a big outbreak but we could see a storm or two get near severe limits. Another cool week ahead of us but drier so that should help in getting more yard work done lol.
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22880
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: May 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

Good morning all! 50 degrees this morning imby and hope all have a wonderful Mother's Day with their Mom's and families. I don't have much to add to the ongoing forecast attm so will enjoy this morning with some coffee and my Mom.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
Bgoney
Tropical Storm
Posts: 4353
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:09 pm
Location: East clermont, 3mls north of Williamsburg

Re: May 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by Bgoney »

Wow, I didn't expect the radar to explode quite like it has this morning for cincy area , heavy rain inbound and thunder to boot. Stupid warm fronts
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
Post Reply