May 2021 Weather Discussion

[MJSun]

Happy belated bday Les!!!

[tron777]

Happy belated bday Les!!!

Thanks very much!

[tron777]

2.58" at CVG from the Euro on Mother's Day / Monday

[cloudy72]

Yeah Euro even has 2”+ up here in Dayton as well.

[Bgoney]

Forecast playing out according plan . Now through midnight scattered light showers about. Best chance for a isolated t-showers with the cold front after 8pm.

[MVWxObserver]

Day 1 Thurs ...

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible

Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible

[tron777]

Sure glad that the rain held off long enough for me to get the yard mowed!

[Browneyedgirl]

Sure glad that the rain held off long enough for me to get the yard mowed!

Same here! Had some sprinkles as I was finishing up.

[MVWxObserver]

My gauge picked up .20" for Thurs.

[Bgoney]

Spitting image of yesterday, after 4 to midnight showers and slight chance of an isolated t-shower with brief small hail due to cold air aloft. Models are leaning towards Tim's solution of a more northward push of the warm front for Sunday. Still , at the very least off and on showers throughout the day and possiblya T-shower, with still questionable QPF amounts.

[tron777]

I don't think I got much of anything last night here. Will await to see what happens on Mother's Day. Those 2" amounts could occur near and north of I-70 where we are in the 0.50 to 1" range down here if these further north solutions (and Tim's call) are correct with the further north position of the warm front.

[Bgoney]

GW update. What has been going on in the Northern Hemisphere of late and for that matter all of 2021, is nothing short of astounding for record cold and snows. The list is incredibly long for nearly every EU country smashing both these records multiple times and is still ongoing as we speak. Crop losses have been substantial and delays in crop planting are getting critical in many EU countries. Here's a story from the MSM about it........crickets!, zzzzzzzz's, blind eye, denial.

In the US , yet another week of 10-20 degrees below normal temps from the rockies eastward with feet of snow for the latter in the coming week, IN THE MIDDLE OF MAY!!!! Here's a story from MSM about it.........................huh, whuut?

gfs_asnow_us_fh0-192.gif

[tron777]

The next 7-10 days looks like more of the same. EU Ensembles try and turn things around after Day 10 with a trough in the West and ridge in the East so we'll see how that plays out once we get closer. Thru at least mid month, I see no changes at all with the overall pattern. As Mike has been mentioning also, the MJO is still cycling thru the cold phases right now. The overall hemispheric pattern hat Bgoney continues to update us on, has not really changed a whole heck of a lot since winter.

[cloudy72]

0.24” since midnight here

[tron777]

CVG did get 0.19" and I did not check my gauge yet today. Guess I slept thru it or we never got any thunder lol

[tpweather]

Good Morning and another cool morning. Bgoney,thanks for all the info as CNN has not mentioned once how cold the NH has been the past 6 months. Saw where Finland getting hit with a heavy snowstorm. Again Finland will get snow sometimes in May but this is one that could dump over a foot in some areas. Europe has been even colder than the USA and crops including grapes have been hit hard so if you are into some pricey French Wines expect to pay more and I will not need to worry about the high prices.

Interesting forecast for the weekend and so much depends on where the warm front sets up and where it sort gets stalled and folks just north of there could be in for the highest rainfall totals. I still like I-70 folks getting a nice hit and even down here expect some decent totals that could be enhance with some thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. After that a few days of dry weather before another chance of rainfall probably later Wednesday into the Friday time period. Warmer air is coming and 100p/c sure because I checked the calendar and it showed June,July and August coming up.

[tron777]

Euro seems to be the only hold out showing 1.9" at CVG while the NAM has 0.75" and the GFS 0.33" on its 6Z run. I like 0.50 to 1" if the warm front is to our north with those 2" amounts along and north of I-70. I think that looks like a solid call which you have been all over Tim the last few days.

[Bgoney]

Here you go Tim,

A severe snowstorm is forecast to hit Finland from Thursday to Friday, May 6 to 7, 2021, with up to 30 cm (12 inches) of snow accumulation possible. The Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) has warned of poor driving conditions due to sleet, with experts saying the aftermath may be a "snow chaos".

Here's another, there are so many.

Up to 18.5 cm (7.3 inches) of snow fell in parts of Gangwon Province, South Korea, from Saturday evening to Sunday morning, May 1 to 2, 2021. It was the first time in 22 years that it has snowed in South Korea in the month of May.

The Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) reported that up to 18.5 cm (7.3 inches) of snow blanketed Gangwon over the weekend, which was unusual for the month of May when summer weather conditions are usually seen across the country.

[tron777]

Storm Talk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/05/07/goode- ... ther-blog/

[cloudy72]

12z NAM has about an inch QPF for CVG on Mother's Day/night.

[tron777]

12Z GFS has 0.51" for CVG on Mother's Day while the Euro checks in with 2.02" Pretty large model spread with regards to where the warm front sets up shop.

[cloudy72]

Couple thunderstorms on radar in the Van Wert OH / Ft Wayne IN areas.

[cloudy72]

GFS tracks the low across northern Ohio while the Euro brings it up right along the Ohio River, so yeah big difference between the two currently. As we have been stating, the more northern track and the less QPF for us.

[Bgoney]

12Z GFS has 0.51" for CVG on Mother's Day while the Euro checks in with 2.02" Pretty large model spread with regards to where the warm front sets up shop.

Hoping the further north solution wins . We just don't need the rain in our area. Ground is pretty much saturated already and with the cool temps, more would be detrimental to some plants and a waste. They need it up north worse as they have been considerably dryer this spring