Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2022-2023

[tpweather]

I really don't know what Larry has been looking at the last 2 months, to make him think anything close to ElNino was going to happen for the 22/23 winter months. SOI, sub- surface temps, raging easterlies, what was he looking at?

I know and he hints at a few things but to much other info that states El Nino very unlikely. He is the expert and I always pay attention but I have a hard time with his forecast. Pretty much the same with the tropical season and how most folks went with an above average season and that better happen soon and hopefully we don't start naming thunderstorms in the Atlantic to meet our predictions.

[tron777]

I really don't know what Larry has been looking at the last 2 months, to make him think anything close to ElNino was going to happen for the 22/23 winter months. SOI, sub- surface temps, raging easterlies, what was he looking at?

I know and he hints at a few things but to much other info that states El Nino very unlikely. He is the expert and I always pay attention but I have a hard time with his forecast. Pretty much the same with the tropical season and how most folks went with an above average season and that better happen soon and hopefully we don't start naming thunderstorms in the Atlantic to meet our predictions.

I just mentioned this to Trev in our Aug thread, but I'll throw that same response in here too since it all ties in with our discussion. Larry is still going with 14 named storms, 7 canes and 2 majors. Things had better get going by Labor Day or even that kind of call is in trouble. I've spent a lot of time over the last few years trying to figure out the correlation of a high ACE tropical year with the upcoming winter. This time, I maybe researching LOW ACE years instead the way things are going. Third year Nina and LOW Ace. I am going to have trouble finding much info on this combination I'm afraid.

[tron777]

So we've got TWO Triple Dip Nina's since 1950. 1973-1976 Then again 1998-2001 Right now it is 2020-2023 for our third Triple Dip. So the sample size on this info is going to be low. Now what did the ACE do during those years for the Atlantic Tropical basin?

1973 - 47.9
1974 - 68.4
1975 - 76.1
1976 - 84.2

1998 - 181.8
1999 - 176.5
2000 - 119.1
2001 - 110.1

2020 - 179.8
2021 - 145.7
2022 - So far: 2.8

If we factor in low ace and a +QBO which we will have this winter then 75-76 is a match. 99-00 matches with the QBO but the ACE is high as you can see from the above. 20-21 had a +QBO too but ACE is high. 75-76 was not a very cold winter for us like 76-77 and 77-78 were (weak Ninos). So we'll see... just a small sample size to go on and it's going to be hard to find good analogs to use for this year. Getting this winter correct is going to be tough.

[tpweather]

Les funny you mentioned the 75-76 winter. I got my first weather radio on Christmas that year and everyone was jealous lol. What I do remember besides the uneventful winter was on Christmas 1975 there was either a heavy snow warning or winter storm warning for over 4 inches of snow and I was very excited with the radio. All we got was flurries.

[tron777]

Les funny you mentioned the 75-76 winter. I got my first weather radio on Christmas that year and everyone was jealous lol. What I do remember besides the uneventful winter was on Christmas 1975 there was either a heavy snow warning or winter storm warning for over 4 inches of snow and I was very excited with the radio. All we got was flurries.

Cool! Would love a shot at a White Christmas this year.

[tron777]

This Nina has legs and is going to be a force come this winter, look at this:

[Bgoney]

No doubt Les, I'm not sure why the big boy names on the web hadn't committed to the LaNina sooner, something was spooking them and I'm not sure what

[tron777]

No doubt Les, I'm not sure why the big boy names on the web hadn't committed to the LaNina sooner, something was spooking them and I'm not sure what

I have no idea. The data has been extremely clear for weeks if not months. I'm concerned about it getting too strong to be honest. But at the same time, if it weakens quickly, that will also have an impact on the back half of winter. More time as you know will be needed to try and figure this out.

[tron777]

Here's another view of the ongoing Nina. It is not weakening yet as we've discussed but what is interesting is the warmer waters west of the dateline. Will that get drawn in to the surface or not is a big question. Will continue to monitor...

image.png.5e82567478ba721288416d5146f2a2b1.png

[Bgoney]

Here's another view of the ongoing Nina. It is not weakening yet as we've discussed but what is interesting is the warmer waters west of the dateline. Will that get drawn in to the surface or not is a big question. Will continue to monitor...


image.png.5e82567478ba721288416d5146f2a2b1.png

That has been there all summer. The only way that moves east as you know is with Kelvin waves, and in the current Atmospheric setup it would take 2 maybe three moderate to strong KWs(imo) to move that water at depth to eventually the surface in the east. It hasn't moved all these months because of the nearly equatorial basin wide persistent trade winds. Adding , to get these KWs(westerlies) the MJO, imo would have to make a trek , probably 2 treks, at moderate to strong amplitude through the whole Pacific, which we haven't seen in quite some time. So , until these things happen the warm west pac sub waters aren't going anywhere.

[tron777]

Here's another view of the ongoing Nina. It is not weakening yet as we've discussed but what is interesting is the warmer waters west of the dateline. Will that get drawn in to the surface or not is a big question. Will continue to monitor...


image.png.5e82567478ba721288416d5146f2a2b1.png

That has been there all summer. The only way that moves east as you know is with Kelvin waves, and in the current Atmospheric setup it would take 2 maybe three moderate to strong KWs(imo) to move that water at depth to eventually the surface in the east. It hasn't moved all these months because of the nearly equatorial basin wide persistent trade winds. Adding , to get these KWs(westerlies) the MJO, imo would have to make a trek , probably 2 treks, at moderate to strong amplitude through the whole Pacific, which we haven't seen in quite some time. So , until these things happen the warm west pac sub waters aren't going anywhere.

To prove your point further... (Great post by the way)

wkxzteq_anm.gif

[tron777]

The Winter Weather Outlook from the Old Farmer's Almanac:

OldFarmersalamanac.jpg

[tpweather]

The Winter Weather Outlook from the Old Farmer's Almanac:


OldFarmersalamanac.jpg

I love looking at these maps. Have no idea is this map is even close to being correct but the one thing I will point out and something I have seen over the years and that is if Maine is mild and wet that bodes well for us to have a cold and usually snowy winter. Again not saying this map is correct but would love to see this pan out.

[tron777]

The Winter Weather Outlook from the Old Farmer's Almanac:


OldFarmersalamanac.jpg

I love looking at these maps. Have no idea is this map is even close to being correct but the one thing I will point out and something I have seen over the years and that is if Maine is mild and wet that bodes well for us to have a cold and usually snowy winter. Again not saying this map is correct but would love to see this pan out.

You're right Tim and if you look at the map thru your eyes, what it shows is a ridge over the West Coast, a trough in the middle and another ridge along the East Coast. I like it, I like it! (If correct of course LOL)

[Wxlrnr]

If I remember correctly, not that much different than the other Farmer's Almanac.

[tron777]

If I remember correctly, not that much different than the other Farmer's Almanac.

Exactly, virtually the same. Usually they are opposite. One is usually cold and snowy and the other is usually warm and wet. One things for sure, it's going to get interesting as we progress thru Fall.

[airwolf76]

I have to be honest from what I have read I have no idea what to expect this winter I will post more of my thoughts next month probably.

[tron777]

I have to be honest from what I have read I have no idea what to expect this winter I will post more of my thoughts next month probably.

It's a crap shoot because of it being a third year Nina and the sample size of data that we have is very small. It can go either way at this point. I don't have a clear cut answer yet either.

[tron777]

More evidence that the Nina isn't going anywhere for a while. -IOD is going to be a force once again. Also a +QBO too.

[airwolf76]

I have to be honest from what I have read I have no idea what to expect this winter I will post more of my thoughts next month probably.

It's a crap shoot because of it being a third year Nina and the sample size of data that we have is very small. It can go either way at this point. I don't have a clear cut answer yet either.

At this point its a crap shoot because its only August. there are some very good long range forecasters out there that I follow and I believe in them but you will need to get to around late October to have an idea what early winter may look like. I will say this though, speaking for your area more then mine is that the longer you go without a monster storm the more likely it will be to get one. even in a bad or average winter the law of averages is on your side for a big dawg since it has been quite a few years since you have seen a big snowstorm. its usually this time of year i like to reflect back on some of the blizzards I have experienced in my life. they are pretty rare and special times. I still get so excited at the thought of one

[tron777]

I have to be honest from what I have read I have no idea what to expect this winter I will post more of my thoughts next month probably.

It's a crap shoot because of it being a third year Nina and the sample size of data that we have is very small. It can go either way at this point. I don't have a clear cut answer yet either.

At this point its a crap shoot because its only August. there are some very good long range forecasters out there that I follow and I believe in them but you will need to get to around late October to have an idea what early winter may look like. I will say this though, speaking for your area more then mine is that the longer you go without a monster storm the more likely it will be to get one. even in a bad or average winter the law of averages is on your side for a big dawg since it has been quite a few years since you have seen a big snowstorm. its usually this time of year i like to reflect back on some of the blizzards I have experienced in my life. they are pretty rare and special times. I still get so excited at the thought of one

I get excited too, just like when I was a kid lol Weak E?NSO events are best for us in the Ohio Valley. This Nina is going to be at least peaking at a moderate intensity so it's not all bad news. Just concerned about the +QBO, -IOD potentially leading to a +AO or a cold polar vortex that may keep the cold air wrapped up to the north. Hopefully that is not the case, we'll see. It is late August as you said and many things can change in the next 3 or 4 months prior to winter coming.

[tron777]

August climate models with the Nina ?Forecast... Looks like the UKMET is going with a strong Nina. Hoping for a moderate peak on my end.

GoUKIE.jpg

[Bgoney]

August climate models with the Nina ?Forecast... Looks like the UKMET is going with a strong Nina. Hoping for a moderate peak on my end.


GoUKIE.jpg

Looks like the Ukie is going to be the closest match for August, whether that translates through the following months , we wait and see

[Bgoney]

[/quote]

I get excited too, just like when I was a kid lol Weak E?NSO events are best for us in the Ohio Valley. This Nina is going to be at least peaking at a moderate intensity so it's not all bad news. Just concerned about the +QBO, -IOD potentially leading to a +AO or a cold polar vortex that may keep the cold air wrapped up to the north. Hopefully that is not the case, we'll see. It is late August as you said and many things can change in the next 3 or 4 months prior to winter coming.
[/quote]

What do you guys make of the PDO. The cooler waters along the California coast of last year have eroded and I'm assuming will flip to all warmer than normal by late fall , to go along with the ever expanding blob-2.0 creeping it's way eastward in the NPac

[tron777]

I get excited too, just like when I was a kid lol Weak E?NSO events are best for us in the Ohio Valley. This Nina is going to be at least peaking at a moderate intensity so it's not all bad news. Just concerned about the +QBO, -IOD potentially leading to a +AO or a cold polar vortex that may keep the cold air wrapped up to the north. Hopefully that is not the case, we'll see. It is late August as you said and many things can change in the next 3 or 4 months prior to winter coming.

What do you guys make of the PDO. The cooler waters along the California coast of last year have eroded and I'm assuming will flip to all warmer than normal by late fall , to go along with the ever expanding blob-2.0 creeping it's way eastward in the NPac

I've been watching that. It has been negative and with a Nina you would expect that to be the case. However, as rare as a +PDO is during a Nina, it can happen and we have seen it before. Currently, it is warming and we'll need to keep an eye on it to see if further warming occurs and also if it holds. Right now in the N PAC and Gulf of Alaska, I am liking what I am seeing. Just hope that look of the SST's continues.