August 2022 Weather Discussion

[Bgoney]

LaNina weekly reading features another cool down, 3.4 region down to -1.1. Recent Inactive phase of MJO has helped stifle Atlantic tropical activity so far In August, along with the SAL.

This is a great website to track the African Dust or SAL from the Univ of Wisconsin.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/

If a wave can make it to the Islands then it'll have a chance. Too much dust East of the Islands. I did see a recent GFS run try and show something get cooking around Day 9 but until then, it's pretty much crickets on this side of the globe.

Yea , the hurricane lovers are panicking but I don't see the inactivity so far as all that unusual. If you look at the average date , there's a huge jump around the 20th , so once that arrives , I'm sure the tropical Atlantic will start generating waves as well as the modelling

[tpweather]

LaNina weekly reading features another cool down, 3.4 region down to -1.1. Recent Inactive phase of MJO has helped stifle Atlantic tropical activity so far In August, along with the SAL.

This is a great website to track the African Dust or SAL from the Univ of Wisconsin.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/

If a wave can make it to the Islands then it'll have a chance. Too much dust East of the Islands. I did see a recent GFS run try and show something get cooking around Day 9 but until then, it's pretty much crickets on this side of the globe.

Yea , the hurricane lovers are panicking but I don't see the inactivity so far as all that unusual. If you look at the average date , there's a huge jump around the 20th , so once that arrives , I'm sure the tropical Atlantic will start generating waves as well as the modelling

Great Post and I believe the biggest problem is all the hype from many of the met's and of course the media just eats that stuff up. Bigger story imo is the pacific and this has been going on for several years and the amount of storms is down. Again I believe years ago we had periods where the tropics were very active but we had no satellites and relied on ships to send in the information. You know its slow though when the gfs is not showing much in the way of activity because usually by late July you are seeing storms in the extended models which is sort of like the cold the model shows starting in November but we wait and wait. If we start to see more troughs over the central and eastern part of the country come early September that can really keep the storms out to sea more and though most experts believe the east coast would be the place that could get hit more this season those troughs if they get going and continue one after another then getting any storm to hit the coast becomes a challenge.

[tron777]

Wonderful posts guys! Agree with you both. If after Labor Day and we're slow then okay but little by little the tropical Atlantic is showing signs of waking up towards the end of the month. But not until then. It will be a couple more weeks before much gets going. As most on here know, the peak of the hurricane season is around the 10-15th of Sept so we have a long ways to go still. You can get a flare up of 10-12 named storms even at this juncture in the season and have an avg season. I think above avg is a stretch this year but an avg season is absolutely still in the cards.

[Bgoney]

LaNina weekly reading features another cool down, 3.4 region down to -1.1. Recent Inactive phase of MJO has helped stifle Atlantic tropical activity so far In August, along with the SAL.

This is a great website to track the African Dust or SAL from the Univ of Wisconsin.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/

If a wave can make it to the Islands then it'll have a chance. Too much dust East of the Islands. I did see a recent GFS run try and show something get cooking around Day 9 but until then, it's pretty much crickets on this side of the globe.

Yea , the hurricane lovers are panicking but I don't see the inactivity so far as all that unusual. If you look at the average date , there's a huge jump around the 20th , so once that arrives , I'm sure the tropical Atlantic will start generating waves as well as the modelling

Great Post and I believe the biggest problem is all the hype from many of the met's and of course the media just eats that stuff up. Bigger story imo is the pacific and this has been going on for several years and the amount of storms is down. Again I believe years ago we had periods where the tropics were very active but we had no satellites and relied on ships to send in the information. You know its slow though when the gfs is not showing much in the way of activity because usually by late July you are seeing storms in the extended models which is sort of like the cold the model shows starting in November but we wait and wait. If we start to see more troughs over the central and eastern part of the country come early September that can really keep the storms out to sea more and though most experts believe the east coast would be the place that could get hit more this season those troughs if they get going and continue one after another then getting any storm to hit the coast becomes a challenge.

Back at you Tim , couldn't agree more. Good to have you back in the saddle.

[MVWxObserver]

Welcome Home again Tim! Sorry about the rain but if it makes you feel any better only a few hundredths yesterday and CVG only 0.05" Anyway that Nina is going to be a thorn on our sides to try and figure this winter season out and the quiet tropics are also very very interesting. Even the West Pac has been low on activity. M storm over there, H storm in the East Pac and only the B storm in the Atl. A lame season overall but how will that impact the upcoming winter is the question of the day for me. More research is certainly needed in the coming weeks and months on this issue. We will have to put on our thinking toques, eh?

I had to look it up.

[tron777]

Eric, the first time I have ever heard that word, toques it was from Bob and Doug Mckenzie's "12 days of Christmas." Now you have to have listened to that one before I am sure!

Ok, back to our weather and more of the same guys. Decent temps and sky cover this week with only slim rain chances expected. The mid 80s are back by Fri and Sat but that's about it. Maybe 87 on Friday for 1 above avg day? Otherwise we are below avg folks. Sunday still looking like the best day to get wet area wide. I'll go 50/50 Sat and Mon of next week.

[tron777]

[tron777]

12Z GFS still showing Sunday as our best shot for storms. Slim pickings until then.

[Bgoney]

Wonderful monsoon season continues the next 5 days with the 4 corners states really kicking g butt. The rest of Texas will start eating away their drought conditions in the coming days and weeks, with south Texas already cashing in on tropical moisture earlier last weekend.

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[tron777]

[cloudy72]

Actually a couple showers in the Dayton area - moving to the SOUTHWEST around the upper low.

[tron777]

Euro liking Sunday afternoon for the best action.

[tpweather]

Just started raining, not going to last long but keeps me from watering the flowers this evening.

[tron777]

Another nice morning out there.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has upgraded their La Nina Watch to a La Nina Alert for the upcoming season. Bgoney has kept us informed all year how the demise of the La Nina was not happening and he was way ahead of the game. So what does this mean for us locally and that is something we must do research on and of course many other factors will included in the forecast.

[Bgoney]

An interesting late summer and early fall pattern coming up. Not a new pattern but the same one that will now be injected with a tropical influence. Fun times ahead!!

[winterstormjoe]

An interesting late summer and early fall pattern coming up. Not a new pattern but the same one that will now be injected with a tropical influence. Fun times ahead!!

Yep, I saw where the 06z GFS has a GOM tropical system coming up the western apps in 10 days or so, but we all know that'll change a 100 times before then. But the overnight GFS is hinting at an increased tropical action coming.

[tpweather]

An interesting late summer and early fall pattern coming up. Not a new pattern but the same one that will now be injected with a tropical influence. Fun times ahead!!

I agree and will the trough that is mainly in the great lakes and ohio valley continue. If so then we have the old battle zone and if these troughs are strong enough to move rather far south then many of the tropical systems may never make it to the mainland USA. The models will start to show more and more systems just because we are heading into September. I still worry about the NWS naming to many storms when sometimes its only a cluster of thunderstorms. Still believe its going to be tough getting to just a normal season in the Atlantic less alone one above normal in terms of storms. The pacific of course will be well below the normal average and over the past several seasons that has been the case.

[tron777]

12Z GFS continues the above theme with a lot of frontal systems heading our way and the tropics firing up also towards the end of the run. Agree, def some fun times ahead for us on here.

[tron777]

[tpweather]

Great Video by Brian once again. He touched on everything we talked about on here and that is the tropics are waking up but also the cold fronts that you start to see late in August and September look stronger than normal so there will be some battles and we just need to see who wins ad who gets caught in between.

[tron777]

12Z Euro continuing the call of rain on Sunday and very little happening until then.

[tpweather]

12Z Euro continuing the call of rain on Sunday and very little happening until then.

Les you can tell we are in the dry part of the growing season which is mid-August - mid-October. Many times you may only see and inch or two or rain during this 2 month period. However,when you can get a tropical system to interact with a cold front this is where the totals can go way up. So my guess during this two month period rainfall total will average 4-5 inches. There will be many years though where cold front after cold front comes through with little moisture and you get 1 or 2 inches. Then you have those years once in awhile that will have the tropics rule and getting 7-10 is possible. Saying all that and trying to follow my logic is not easy but there are some wild swings in regards to rainfall total during this period. Will need to watch the models and sometimes they will show a cold front getting in here say day 5 but then the next run will show day 7 and that usually means this time of year the tropics are trying to be the bully on the block. That bully wins several fights early on but tends to back down later in September but again this year the cold fronts may push back on the bully a little earlier than normal.

[tron777]

12Z Euro continuing the call of rain on Sunday and very little happening until then.

Les you can tell we are in the dry part of the growing season which is mid-August - mid-October. Many times you may only see and inch or two or rain during this 2 month period. However,when you can get a tropical system to interact with a cold front this is where the totals can go way up. So my guess during this two month period rainfall total will average 4-5 inches. There will be many years though where cold front after cold front comes through with little moisture and you get 1 or 2 inches. Then you have those years once in awhile that will have the tropics rule and getting 7-10 is possible. Saying all that and trying to follow my logic is not easy but there are some wild swings in regards to rainfall total during this period. Will need to watch the models and sometimes they will show a cold front getting in here say day 5 but then the next run will show day 7 and that usually means this time of year the tropics are trying to be the bully on the block. That bully wins several fights early on but tends to back down later in September but again this year the cold fronts may push back on the bully a little earlier than normal.

Tim, I personally believe that we will see above avg rainfall this Fall. Not only thanks to the tropics but a lot of cold fronts in the pipeline headed our way. Like you said, the tropics are just going to add to it. We will have our usual up's and down's in the temperature dept too. Right now, the swings aren't too dramatic but in another month or two they most certainly will be as the cold continues to build up north and get injected into the overall pattern.

[tpweather]

Looks like the low pressure off to our northeast is trying to throw a showers back this way from central Ohio. Again these will be scattered and light but I got a shower last night that lasted 10 minutes so never say never to a brief shower.