August 2022 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Had another ground wetter overnight. At least the dust isn't an issue. I'm good with not seeing any rain and with all of the chances upcoming, everyone is bound to get something. Some of you will get too much of a good thing. NW portions of AV Country currently impacted with everyone else dry at this time. Once we get some heating, that will change.

Good Morning Les and yes a ground wetter with 0.01 inches of rainfall. I agree about a more widespread area of showers and thundershowers this afternoon and evening. Do we see a complex overnight into Friday and if so will this hurt chances later in the day on Friday. Still believe the weekend will not have widespread areas of rainfall like today and Friday but with this humidity picking up a showers is possible anytime in the afternoon and early evening hours. Next Monday and Tuesday looks very similar to today and Friday and hopefully we can pick some more rainfall. Middle of next week will be determined by how far south the early week cold front can go. Again early August never easy but hopefully we can get some of the drier air in here by late next week.

[tron777]

It seems like the areas that get hammered are small and localized and a much broader and more widespread area of lower totals is kind of what we have been seeing and most likely will continue to see. Thru the weekend, some folks may only see 0.25 to 0.50" and others 2" plus. Just need that boundary to sink a little further SE to nail us later. Good news is, we should see a decent amount of sun for some CAPE for the storms to work with later. I think the radar over us will be lighting up once convective temps are met.

[tpweather]

Les, we don't have to worry about the leftover mcs from last night to interfere with us today as that complex is well to the southwest. The storms that are forming will be a southwest to northeast direction and anytime after noon I expect the radar to become rather busy. Will it rain all the time and the answer is no but when it does rain expect some heavier rains in a short period of time. Some models are showing a complex overnight but we know models are just throwing darts and once in awhile hit the bullseye. The weekend I just believe the Bermuda High will bully its way a little further west and that is why I expect less coverage but expect another uptick early next week as the High moves back to the east and we get a decent cold front for early August heading this way.

[tron777]

Les, we don't have to worry about the leftover mcs from last night to interfere with us today as that complex is well to the southwest. The storms that are forming will be a southwest to northeast direction and anytime after noon I expect the radar to become rather busy. Will it rain all the time and the answer is no but when it does rain expect some heavier rains in a short period of time. Some models are showing a complex overnight but we know models are just throwing darts and once in awhile hit the bullseye. The weekend I just believe the Bermuda High will bully its way a little further west and that is why I expect less coverage but expect another uptick early next week as the High moves back to the east and we get a decent cold front for early August heading this way.

I am thinking basically the same. Today has the best chance. Tomorrow depends on how the morning goes as you said, then Saturday has a 50/50 chance with about a 30% chance on Sunday. That is kind of how my thought process is which seems similar to yours lol

[tron777]

ILN 12z sounding has a convective temp of 91. I don't think we're going to get that high unless the clouds and showers actually hold off that long. DCAPE values are 1177 so the marginal risk for strong winds is justified. 1.45" for PWATS so decent there for heavy rain prospects. Very light shear so again, these will be slow movers so heavy rains likely where storms do pop.

[tpweather]

ILN 12z sounding has a convective temp of 91. I don't think we're going to get that high unless the clouds and showers actually hold off that long. DCAPE values are 1177 so the marginal risk for strong winds is justified. 1.45" for PWATS so decent there for heavy rain prospects. Very light shear so again, these will be slow movers so heavy rains likely where storms do pop.

Good thing Les is we have other factors that should help in forming storms. A normal summer afternoon then we would see little in the way of storms but today looks fine.

[tron777]

Nice AFD from the boys:

Early this morning, an outflow boundary that has moved north
through multiple states, has initiated a few scattered showers
and thunderstorms with the heaviest rain located over Owen
County of the last hour or so. The outflow may continue to
produce a few scattered showers/storms as it moves north through
sunrise.

For the rest of the near term, a slow moving trough and
plentiful deep moisture set the stage for an active period.
Overnight convection and the associated thick cirrus have stayed
west of the area overnight. This allows for efficient warming
through the late morning and early afternoon. A weak capping
inversion should inhibit widespread convective development this
morning, however, can`t rule a few scattered showers and storms
due to the presence of the trough and abundant moisture.

Due to the considerable amounts of convection occurring over
the middle Mississippi River Valley and lower Ohio Valley this
morning, several mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) features have
formed and will eject eastward during the afternoon. These
focused areas of lift along with quickly rising temperatures
results in widespread thunderstorm activity with the greatest
coverage between noon and 6 PM. While deep layer shear is weak,
the MCVs will supply locally enhanced wind flows. As
thunderstorms develop and collapse, some organization will be
possible with scattered 40-50 mph wind gusts. Some locally
damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms or
with any brief surging line segments that are able to form.
Locally heavy rainfall is a concern today but much of the area
has been dry over the last few days so any flooding should be
brief and limited to urban areas due to heavy rainfall rates.
Flash flooding would become an increasing concern in location
that observe multiple thunderstorms. This scenario appears
possible over a very limited spatial area so will hold off on
issuing a flood watch.

Despite debris upper level cloud cover, some locations across
the south and east will warm well into the upper 80s today. Rich
surface moisture supports heat indices of 95 to 100 and there
is some potential for locations to reach criteria. However,
given the developing convection, will issue an SPS to cover the
threat instead of an advisory.

[tpweather]

Les,sounds like they are on the same page. With the mcs leftovers and a south to southwest wind this will push those boundaries to the northeast. The good thing is we have plenty of time to heat up with ample sunshine this morning. I agree the 12pm-6pm time is the most likely period for storms to form but even this evening before the sun sets we can still have a few around. Then we wait and see what happens overnight.

[tron777]

Les,sounds like they are on the same page. With the mcs leftovers and a south to southwest wind this will push those boundaries to the northeast. The good thing is we have plenty of time to heat up with ample sunshine this morning. I agree the 12pm-6pm time is the most likely period for storms to form but even this evening before the sun sets we can still have a few around. Then we wait and see what happens overnight.

The abundance of sunshine certainly makes you feel better about discussing higher storm chances that is for sure. Hopefully, the tracks will work out for us. That is always the one aspect of t-storms that requires some luck.

[tron777]

12Z HRRR isn't showing too much but scattered activity. Best shot comes overnight from the SW. however, the model did not initialize well either showing much less rain over IN then what is currently occurring. Model weakened the activity faster then how it is weakening in reality.

[tron777]

HRRR wants to do some training right up the river overnight so we'll see if that idea can gain any model support. Not trusting any one solution right now. NAM hasn't been bad recently so we'll see how it initialized shortly.

[tron777]

12Z NAM initialized better IMO and it does show convection for the Tristate / Metro area this afternoon coming in around 4-5pm.

[tpweather]

HRRR wants to do some training right up the river overnight so we'll see if that idea can gain any model support. Not trusting any one solution right now. NAM hasn't been bad recently so we'll see how it initialized shortly.

The nam is no doubt giving us some decent rains this afternoon and evening. Funny thing is you never no which short term model is going to be correct on a certain day and you must look at the current set up to which one makes more sense. I do believe the HRRR was trying to spit out more rain and probably later today it will come around to a more widespread set up more like the nam.

Btw saw headlines of farmer's almanac and its shows cold and snowy for us this winter lol.

[tron777]

HRRR wants to do some training right up the river overnight so we'll see if that idea can gain any model support. Not trusting any one solution right now. NAM hasn't been bad recently so we'll see how it initialized shortly.

The nam is no doubt giving us some decent rains this afternoon and evening. Funny thing is you never no which short term model is going to be correct on a certain day and you must look at the current set up to which one makes more sense. I do believe the HRRR was trying to spit out more rain and probably later today it will come around to a more widespread set up more like the nam.

Btw saw headlines of farmer's almanac and its shows cold and snowy for us this winter lol.

I know and I started the Early Winter Thoughts thread too. Go check it out! Trev already has.

viewtopic.php?f=9&t=172

Anyway, back to our storm chances here and the NAM shows a couple more rounds overnight coming right up the river too. Interesting!

[tpweather]

Thanks Les for the update on the winter thread. Never early enough to start looking at what may or may not happen this upcoming winter.

[tron777]

Thanks Les for the update on the winter thread. Never early enough to start looking at what may or may not happen this upcoming winter.

You know me, I'm always down for discussing cold and snow chances no matter the time of year.

[tron777]

Quick update from the boys highlighting our concerns nicely for today:

No major changes made to the grids with this morning`s update.
Radar trends show a band of light to moderate rain showers over
west central Ohio. Concern heading into peak heating today is
the instability gradient to the southeast of these showers...
particularly along the I-75/I-71 corridors.

Guidance provides MLCAPEs in the 1500-2000J range with an
atmosphere primed for efficient/heavy rain. Will need to watch
for slow-moving or training storms as we go through the day.

[Trevor]

Quick update from the boys highlighting our concerns nicely for today:

No major changes made to the grids with this morning`s update.
Radar trends show a band of light to moderate rain showers over
west central Ohio. Concern heading into peak heating today is
the instability gradient to the southeast of these showers...
particularly along the I-75/I-71 corridors.

Guidance provides MLCAPEs in the 1500-2000J range with an
atmosphere primed for efficient/heavy rain. Will need to watch
for slow-moving or training storms as we go through the day.

We should begin to see some action popping over the tri-state over the next few hours. Like others have said, heavy downpours are the primary hazard today. Maybe an isolated severe t’storm warning as well.

[tron777]

Latest drought monitor update... looking much better for our region now as expected.

Drought.png

[tron777]

We should begin to see some action popping over the tri-state over the next few hours. Like others have said, heavy downpours are the primary hazard today. Maybe an isolated severe t’storm warning as well.

Yes Sir! Already seeing a few isolated showers going up ahead of that weakening activity.

[tpweather]

The nam is pretty much what Les has mentioned with more rain on Saturday. I may need to readjust my forecast if the other models are giving us more rain on Saturday. I was only looking at isolated but we know rain breeds rain.

[tron777]

The nam is pretty much what Les has mentioned with more rain on Saturday. I may need to readjust my forecast if the other models are giving us more rain on Saturday. I was only looking at isolated but we know rain breeds rain.

I've got likely POPS today. Chance POPS tomorrow since we're not sure how Friday will go yet. Chance POPS Saturday with isolated POPS on Sunday. I go by the NWS definitions for the most part when I talk about POPS. Below is how the scale is used in the context of this post.

Likely - 70%
Chance - 50%
Isolated - 30%

[tron777]

Temps at this hour are in the U70s to the L80s depending on how much sun your location has received. CAPE values for SE IN and SW OH are around 1500 J/KG with 2000 over NKY. DCAPE values range from 1000 in IN to 700 over our SE counties. PWATS continue to rise now up to 1.8" as the deeper moisture begins to move in. Dews are in the lower to middle 70s so plenty of juice out there!

[tpweather]

Les this is one of the days where you don't want to see temps hit 90 or 91 has that would mean some dry air has gotten involved somewhere in the atmosphere.

[tron777]

Les this is one of the days where you don't want to see temps hit 90 or 91 has that would mean some dry air has gotten involved somewhere in the atmosphere.

Yeah, there are too many clouds and isolated showers popping to allow for that to happen. Def staying in the 80s today.