July 2022 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

My dew got up to I think 79, but not the 81 that CVG had. My high was 91.

[tpweather]

Looking at next week and why chances are higher than normal for a longer period of possible showers and thundershowers. Will have a nice high pressure to the north that is rather strong. Cold fronts in later July very seldom drop further south than the Tn Valley or extreme northern gulf states. This should keep a boundary rather close to us much of the week. One of those deals where it comes through as a cold front Monday and heads south and then a couple of days later returns as a warm front to spark more storms. How much rainfall is up in the air at this point but at least chances are there for most folks to get some needed rainfall. Again for the month we are near average in terms of rainfall and for the year we are about 1 inch above normal. The problem was much of mid-late June was very dry so that is why it seems we are much drier.

[tron777]

Looking at next week and why chances are higher than normal for a longer period of possible showers and thundershowers. Will have a nice high pressure to the north that is rather strong. Cold fronts in later July very seldom drop further south than the Tn Valley or extreme northern gulf states. This should keep a boundary rather close to us much of the week. One of those deals where it comes through as a cold front Monday and heads south and then a couple of days later returns as a warm front to spark more storms. How much rainfall is up in the air at this point but at least chances are there for most folks to get some needed rainfall. Again for the month we are near average in terms of rainfall and for the year we are about 1 inch above normal. The problem was much of mid-late June was very dry so that is why it seems we are much drier.

IMBY, the frequency of rainfall has been like a baseball team that is struggling but always finds a way to win. What I mean by that in terms of weather, is that we get the rain frequent enough and just the right amounts of it, to get us by. I've only had the sprinkler out a couple of times and that was to cover that dry stretch in June you mentioned. If it weren't for that, the rain this summer would have been right on the money perfect!

[cloudy72]

Good morning all! I expect the upper 80s today then the 90s thru the weekend. Do we get any sneaky storm chances before next week? A few models are trying but I'd say chances are low. Like Sat morning a dying complex is trying to enter ands again late Sunday. I'll watch it but I think our greatest chances probably hold off until Sunday night and as we roll into next week.

12z NAM still holding onto the storm chances for Saturday

[tron777]

Good morning all! I expect the upper 80s today then the 90s thru the weekend. Do we get any sneaky storm chances before next week? A few models are trying but I'd say chances are low. Like Sat morning a dying complex is trying to enter ands again late Sunday. I'll watch it but I think our greatest chances probably hold off until Sunday night and as we roll into next week.

12z NAM still holding onto the storm chances for Saturday

12Z GFS holds it on long enough for areas north and east of Cincy to get a little bit before it weakens and dries up completely as it tries to cross into NE KY / SE OH.

[tron777]

[tron777]

[tron777]

12Z Euro also has Sat AM chance. Looks great next week for big time chances.

[tron777]

88 as of 3pm... can we get a contest day out of it or not?

[tron777]

CVG got 89'ed per the 5pm climate report.

[tron777]

Happy Friday all! Dry today and in the 90s of course. Do we see storms Saturday morning or clouds to hurt temps getting into the mid 90s? Sunday looks good for that, but storms possible very late in the day and esp overnight. Storms likely at times throughout next week as we've said. Several inches of rain for some folks possible.

[tron777]

Models have anywhere between 1 and 3"+ for rain totals next week. I could see 2-3" easy for the folks who get repeated rounds of storms. Not so sure on severe wx just yet but a heavy rain set up with flash flooding certainly is going to be possible. It's just a matter of where?

[tpweather]

Great post Les. The weekend and how hot or muggy do we get. Models are having a little trouble on the dew points this weekend which again makes a difference of how high the temps can rise. We could see temps near 95 but dew points in the low to mid 60's or do we see temps say 91 but dew points in the low 70's. Either way its going to be hot but nothing like we saw on Wednesday or in June imo. Hopefully everyone sees several periods of showers and thundershowers next week and even some models late next week has us below normal in temps as the front sinks a little further south.

[tron777]

Great post Les. The weekend and how hot or muggy do we get. Models are having a little trouble on the dew points this weekend which again makes a difference of how high the temps can rise. We could see temps near 95 but dew points in the low to mid 60's or do we see temps say 91 but dew points in the low 70's. Either way its going to be hot but nothing like we saw on Wednesday or in June imo. Hopefully everyone sees several periods of showers and thundershowers next week and even some models late next week has us below normal in temps as the front sinks a little further south.

Thanks Tim! Yeah, I'm really digging the looks of the extended range for early August. I was thinking we'd see that by mid month instead of early in the month, but hey that's cool.

[cloudy72]

CVG got 89'ed per the 5pm climate report.

I'm amazed we have only seen two 89 days so far.....

[tron777]

CVG got 89'ed per the 5pm climate report.

I'm amazed we have only seen two 89 days so far.....

We have had low 90s probably most often. Not too many just plain old 90 degrees either.

[cloudy72]

12z HRRR looks quite stormy up this way tomorrow morning. Would love to see the rain.

[tron777]

12z HRRR looks quite stormy up this way tomorrow morning. Would love to see the rain.

You can see how it fizzles out as it hits the River.. or should I say My Dome!

[cloudy72]

12z 3km NAM has a stormy early Saturday look to it as well mainly north of the river. The OPS NAM keeps everything well north of I-70.

[tpweather]

12z 3km NAM has a stormy early Saturday look to it as well mainly north of the river. The OPS NAM keeps everything well north of I-70.

I am torn on the early Saturday forecast. Most of the time you can tell if its going to miss us by quite a bit or slam us. This one imo is we are on the fence and the reason is the complex should start out rather far south compared to some earlier this year. So Indy to Day I feel rather confident some rainfall will occur but towards CVG at this point I am going 50/50.

[cloudy72]

I am torn on the early Saturday forecast. Most of the time you can tell if its going to miss us by quite a bit or slam us. This one imo is we are on the fence and the reason is the complex should start out rather far south compared to some earlier this year. So Indy to Day I feel rather confident some rainfall will occur but towards CVG at this point I am going 50/50.

Great post - I do favor folks north of the river for Saturday morning, but like the looks of next week for those needing rain south of the river. I believe it will all even out in time.

[tron777]

Agree with you both... between now and next weekend, everyone has a great chance at getting 2"+ of rainfall.

[tron777]

12Z NAM gives us our turn Sunday evening. I'll take it!

[tron777]

SPC has a marginal risk out for folks north of the river on Sunday.

[tron777]

12Z Euro gives CVG 0.15" Sat morning. I'd be thrilled!