July 2022 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

12Z GFS shows shower chances Fri and Sat but I think it's over done. It does agree with the Euro though of our best chances coming Sunday and Monday.

[tron777]

87 so far at CVG as of 2pm... front has passed. Dews are dropping a bit and W winds so we'll see if we'll get 88'ed like yesterday or not.

[tron777]

Euro has nothing until Sunday and Monday. I like that idea personally.

[tron777]

BG Blog Announcement:

[Bgoney]

Euro has nothing until Sunday and Monday. I like that idea personally.

EU is holding with the shortwave out of the NWflow for Sunday and the front slowing in the OV for Monday. It doesn't look like tropical moisture gets involved for Monday in our area , but still chances for showers along the boundary

[tron777]

CVG continues to hold at 88.

[Bgoney]

Can see some huge thunderheads in the distance off to my south. Another crappy timing frontal passage

[tron777]

88 at CVG, that was it. 87 here. Another frontal passage tomorrow. 10% coverage good luck!

[Bgoney]

Good morning Les. I believe the tropics will be more of a indirect hit and that means enough moisture should make its way close enough as to warrant a chance of showers and thundershowers later in the weekend. With a front nearby it may be able to pull up enough moisture. The front itself will have some moisture but as we know in mid-July that does not always mean rainfall but with some help from the south maybe just maybe we can all get a decent rainfall and I will gladly take an inch at this point. I know Bgoney was talking about La Nina and funny how folks determine whether we are still in a La Nina. Larry Cosgrove a well know met is saying we are neutral and has for the past few weeks. My guess there are so many ways to determine a Enso phase and each met will make his or her own call. We have talked about this over the past few years that even when we have a certain phase of the Enso the weather can act completely different than what we have seen in the past. Many times this is because something else is sort of the bully.

There is only 1 true definition of ENSO per the CPC. The problem are different ways of getting the data and the differences in how it is calculated. Different people get their data from different sources. The Aussies are one of the best of terms of data and its accuracy. I feel the CPC is usually behind the 8 ball.

Well , no disrespect to the experts who say we're neutral, bit in my book we are firmly in LaNina Atmospheric coupling. The readings we've had for enso throughout summer have been strong (LaNina)for this time of year,albeit not for late fall or winter months but for the middle of summer , it's impressive. All 4 regions negative? That's impressive. I like Larry, but I think he's had a rough couple of years with his extended forecasting (who hasn't?). I think this chart says it all at.least for me

Screenshot_20220712-203625_Drive.jpg

[MVWxObserver]

Prayers / thoughts with a police officer who is in critical condition at Miami Valley Hospital after being shot in the head tonight on a domestic violence call in Clearcreek Twp (Warren Co).

https://www.whio.com/news/local/investi ... 34DJBJQVE/

Currently 64 here in G'ville.

[tron777]

Good morning Les. I believe the tropics will be more of a indirect hit and that means enough moisture should make its way close enough as to warrant a chance of showers and thundershowers later in the weekend. With a front nearby it may be able to pull up enough moisture. The front itself will have some moisture but as we know in mid-July that does not always mean rainfall but with some help from the south maybe just maybe we can all get a decent rainfall and I will gladly take an inch at this point. I know Bgoney was talking about La Nina and funny how folks determine whether we are still in a La Nina. Larry Cosgrove a well know met is saying we are neutral and has for the past few weeks. My guess there are so many ways to determine a Enso phase and each met will make his or her own call. We have talked about this over the past few years that even when we have a certain phase of the Enso the weather can act completely different than what we have seen in the past. Many times this is because something else is sort of the bully.

There is only 1 true definition of ENSO per the CPC. The problem are different ways of getting the data and the differences in how it is calculated. Different people get their data from different sources. The Aussies are one of the best of terms of data and its accuracy. I feel the CPC is usually behind the 8 ball.

Well , no disrespect to the experts who say we're neutral, bit in my book we are firmly in LaNina Atmospheric coupling. The readings we've had for enso throughout summer have been strong (LaNina)for this time of year,albeit not for late fall or winter months but for the middle of summer , it's impressive. All 4 regions negative? That's impressive. I like Larry, but I think he's had a rough couple of years with his extended forecasting (who hasn't?). I think this chart says it all at.least for me



Screenshot_20220712-203625_Drive.jpg

Totally agree as do the Aussies. I don't think we go neutral until Fall and cold neutral at that.

[tron777]

Good morning and Good luck folks on your 10% chance this afternoon as a secondary front drops in. Gorgeous Thurs, Fri, and even Sat. All eyes continue to be on Sun and Mon for rain chances.

[tron777]

NHC has that Gulf Wave down to a 10% chance now for development. so with the tropics less likely to get more moisture involved, or to slow the front down... we're left with the usual ho-hum of scattered chances. I do think that it does take a full two days to move the front thru so decent chances during peak heating Sun and Mon are likely. The coverage just won't be as nice as it could have been if we would have had a depression or something moving by to the SE.

[tron777]

Wow...

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les. On the same page as we never really thought the wave would develop but it still adds to the moisture content. Normal summer day you see maybe 10-20 p/c chance of a thundershower but with the added moisture looks like Sunday and Monday we get into the 40-50p/c chance. Once again these are the kind of days where some folks get missed but if you get under a nice thundershower for a few hours it can add up quick. Still believe models are to slow to bring in ridge next week but so far that is the case. Bgoney I agree about questioning the experts and though I give them tons of respect especially because they are in a field of work I love. In all fields of work folks will have hot and cold spells in their career and Larry has had a few bad years. Maybe since we are in year 3 of a La Nina which seldom happens can cause problems not only for met's but models.

[tron777]

Good morning Tim! I like your thoughts on the coverage for this weekend. Looks like we are on the same page there. On this forum, Bgoney has done a great job with the ENSO updates and I think most of us on here are also in agreement with the Nina continuing for a while longer. I have no idea how the upcoming winter may go. I'm waiting to see how this Nina is going to behave as we progress thru the rest of summer.

[tpweather]

Good morning Tim! I like your thoughts on the coverage for this weekend. Looks like we are on the same page there. On this forum, Bgoney has done a great job with the ENSO updates and I think most of us on here are also in agreement with the Nina continuing for a while longer. I have no idea how the upcoming winter may go. I'm waiting to see how this Nina is going to behave as we progress thru the rest of summer.

Hey Les. I believe the one area of the weather and climate that causes more problems is the oceans. I believe we have just scratched the surface knowing everything happening and how it affects the weather and yes climate as well. Over the past ten years or so we have seen milder late fall and early winter but also colder late winter and early spring. Is this just a blip or something longer term. I have no ideal but again I know when forecasting later in November and December has been tougher because of a bias I have entrenched in my brain. Sometimes those are hard to get rid of no matter how hard you try.

[tron777]

Good morning Tim! I like your thoughts on the coverage for this weekend. Looks like we are on the same page there. On this forum, Bgoney has done a great job with the ENSO updates and I think most of us on here are also in agreement with the Nina continuing for a while longer. I have no idea how the upcoming winter may go. I'm waiting to see how this Nina is going to behave as we progress thru the rest of summer.

Hey Les. I believe the one area of the weather and climate that causes more problems is the oceans. I believe we have just scratched the surface knowing everything happening and how it affects the weather and yes climate as well. Over the past ten years or so we have seen milder late fall and early winter but also colder late winter and early spring. Is this just a blip or something longer term. I have no ideal but again I know when forecasting later in November and December has been tougher because of a bias I have entrenched in my brain. Sometimes those are hard to get rid of no matter how hard you try.

It's funny... the old ways and methods of long range or seasonal forecasting aren't working quite as well as it used too so something def has changed in our climate puzzle. Some people argue AGW, but I like your thoughts. The seasons have shifted by about a month or so over the last 20 years. We are seeing the summer heat linger longer into Fall. Winters start later but last longer into Spring. It is taking spring longer to get started. We have to adapt and change our ways of forecasting if we're ever going to get it right.

[cloudy72]

Looks like the 12z NAM throwing a "small" bone to us I-70 folk for later today. I will take any rain I can get at this point.

[tron777]

Looks like the 12z NAM throwing a "small" bone to us I-70 folk for later today. I will take any rain I can get at this point.

I think it has a shot. It'll weaken after passing thru that area. I think the same for Fri / Sat. Finally by Sunday and Monday, My Dome should be able to crack once again. I hope....

[tron777]

[Bgoney]

NHC has that Gulf Wave down to a 10% chance now for development. so with the tropics less likely to get more moisture involved, or to slow the front down... we're left with the usual ho-hum of scattered chances. I do think that it does take a full two days to move the front thru so decent chances during peak heating Sun and Mon are likely. The coverage just won't be as nice as it could have been if we would have had a depression or something moving by to the SE.

A month from now , given the same setup it probably would have developed into something tropical, but it's not even mid July and unfavorable MJO doomed any chance of helping or increasing our rain chances

[tron777]

NHC has that Gulf Wave down to a 10% chance now for development. so with the tropics less likely to get more moisture involved, or to slow the front down... we're left with the usual ho-hum of scattered chances. I do think that it does take a full two days to move the front thru so decent chances during peak heating Sun and Mon are likely. The coverage just won't be as nice as it could have been if we would have had a depression or something moving by to the SE.

A month from now , given the same setup it probably would have developed into something tropical, but it's not even mid July and unfavorable MJO doomed any chance of helping or increasing our rain chances

MJO was in phases 4 > 5 then weakened back into the neutral circle. So much for that!

[tpweather]

Good thing is even without a tropical system we do see an increase of moisture from the gom. This just improves the odds for rain but is not where its 100p/c which seldom happens in the summer. No heat for the next 4 days and if somehow we can get a few inches of rain it does keep the heat at bay which is not my forecast at all. Once you get into mid-July and if you get a nice soaking and say 1-2 inches it really helps and the days are getting somewhat shorter plus peak solar output is declining and that helps at well. I hope I miss the forecast on the heat but again models as we know struggle with almost all tropical activity and that can be tough when making a forecast

[tron777]

I think we've got about 5 weeks left for heat surges if they are going to happen. Long ways out but seeing some signs of cooler air masses beginning to infiltrate the country. That is earlier then usual. However, I caution this esp seeing it on guidance. If La Nina lingers on, then I don't think that is going to be the case. I think the hotter call has a shot should the Nina rage on. The tropics may flare up in August too. I think they stay quiet for a bit longer.