June 2022 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

This week's heat is just a warm-up to next week's real heat according to the EU.

Yeah the Euro has consistently shown 100 degree temps. We haven't seen that since July of 2012. HOPEFULLY, it is overdone and it is showing too much mixing. The GFS would be more of what we have already seen, low to mid 90s.

The set-up will be more favorable next week for that kind of heat. Ground moisture locally will be much less than the mostly saturated soils to begin our current warm stretch. Also the region to our SW is currently dryer than we are with even a chunk of "abnormally dry" showing up in the southern OV

I sure hope we don't see another 2012 again. It's trying to trend that way unfortunately. Damn La Nina!

Yea , it's probably been mentioned but the last.time there was such widespread damage locally was when we got the tail of the derecho in 2012

Yep! When you get the big heat and are on the edge, that's going to be a risk. We could certainly see another one in the future if things set up right.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and at least this is the last day of 90 degree temps for this first round. Some ingredients will be there for some showers and thundershowers to form later today but the CAP is going to be hard to break so though you may see more clouds the cap very hard to break especially to the west. So best chance for any precip is to the east. Still believe though overnight with the front laying on top of us and plenty of moisture available I believe some rain may be rung out and you get 4-6 hours where it may be raining. Models are not sure with some having nothing while others have the rain and some just have a MCS that heads this way but misses us to the southwest. We could use the rainfall even though vegetation at my house is still lush but we are going to be dry over the weekend and the 1st half of next week. Next week when the ridge reinforces itself dew points will be more on the normal side in the mid-upper 60's but if we continue to stay mainly dry temps can rise quickly. At this point the gfs is mainly in the low 90's while the Euro wants to show some 100 degree days. Again rule of thumb is the correct answer usually is somewhere in between so mid 90's look likely. Hopefully this more short-lived and yes it has been miserable the last 3-4 days but that really is short-lived.

BTW Greenville,SC hit 101 yesterday though dew points have been lower than here which is usually not the case.

[tron777]

Good morning folks! As Tim mentioned, this should be the last 90 until Monday of next week. Friday is going to try and make a run though so an 89 is possible if not a sneaky 90. Something to watch.

Rain chances aren't looking very good for later on today into tomorrow morning. Radar shows the best action in Michigan which is where the best lift and wind shear is with this system. The front back across IN and ILL has very little moisture to work with above our heads in the upper levels. I only expecting isolated storms to be possible so good luck! Only a few will get lucky, most will stay dry today. With regards to Fri morning and the possible MCS we've been monitoring, only 1 model has it now. The NAM gives us the best chance. GFS misses to the SW and all other models have no MCS at all. So if this happens, severe wx would be likely. Again we won't know if this is going to happen until we see if anything fires up overnight. If nothing fires up overnight then we have nothing to worry about.

The weekend continues to look awesome! The heat returns next week. 90 + on Monday, low to mid 90s Tues and mid 90s plus Wed. Can we break this heat wave on Thursday with a front dropping in? I am going on the lower side for temps. Some models had mid and upper 90s with the current heat wave which was way over done. GFS did the best. CMC was a tad too hot and the Euro did terrible. For next week, the Euro has record breaking heat of low 100s. Max high was 104 at CVG next week. I totally disagree. It is so hard to get 100+ in here without a major drought going on like 2012. Like Aug 2007, etc etc. Can we get to 95 or hotter next week? Certainly. But I don't think we'll be seeing triple digits next week. We can later on this summer should this heat wave pattern keep returning week after week. Then we're in trouble if that happens. But only speaking for next week, I am keeping temps in the middle 90s for now.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les. Great Post!!! The main thing is how high temps can go and you hit the nail on the head. The times we see 100 plus around here is almost always when we are very dry and that is just not the case. Yes higher dew points make it feel worse but you will not get the big hike in temps like the Euro shows. Even if we don't get a drop of rain before next week I believe mid 90's is the highest we see and that is because dew points looks to be more normal for this area which is quite often in the mid-upper 60's during much of the summer months. One exception to the 100 degree mark can happen sometimes in later August or September when the tropics get busy and we get some strong ridging ahead of tropical system but again that does not happen very often.

[tron777]

Good Morning Les. Great Post!!! The main thing is how high temps can go and you hit the nail on the head. The times we see 100 plus around here is almost always when we are very dry and that is just not the case. Yes higher dew points make it feel worse but you will not get the big hike in temps like the Euro shows. Even if we don't get a drop of rain before next week I believe mid 90's is the highest we see and that is because dew points looks to be more normal for this area which is quite often in the mid-upper 60's during much of the summer months. One exception to the 100 degree mark can happen sometimes in later August or September when the tropics get busy and we get some strong ridging ahead of tropical system but again that does not happen very often.

Thanks Tim! If this is our summer pattern... Lord I hope not... but if it is, eventually the 100s will come. Probably in July. Let's just hope June is the hot month and we can get this crap out of the way. I don't know though... with a Nina, this outcome was always a risk. We've talked about it before. The Bermuda High is pumping. The Saharan dust is limiting the tropics in the Atlantic basin for now as is typically the case in June. Once we get into July, and esp by mid July, its impacts lessen and the tropics typically start to get going by then (if they are going to). Due to La Nina, expectations are high for this year's season. We'll see as usual. We may need the tropics to get active to not only help us in the rainfall dept, but also get things to change at the 500 MB level (jet stream pattern).

[tron777]

12Z ILN sounding shows a healthy cap in place today. So anything that tries to pop later this afternoon and evening is going to have a hard time doing so. If anything can form, it won't be able to sustain itself for very long. I think with that secondary front coming in on Friday (which gives us the wonderful weekend and 2 day heat break) offers up a better chance. I do believe an MCS will form later tonight and dive SE into Fri morning. Do we get it or does it occur SW of us? Odds favor the miss to the SW but we cannot completely discount it just in case.

[tron777]

12Z NAM has a spotty storm possible this afternoon and evening but the Fri AM MCS is a huge swing and a miss well off to the SW.

[tron777]

Already 85 at CVG. Unless clouds or a pop up storm occur, low to mid 90s will probably be likely again today.

[cloudy72]

12Z ILN sounding shows a healthy cap in place today. So anything that tries to pop later this afternoon and evening is going to have a hard time doing so. If anything can form, it won't be able to sustain itself for very long. I think with that secondary front coming in on Friday (which gives us the wonderful weekend and 2 day heat break) offers up a better chance. I do believe an MCS will form later tonight and dive SE into Fri morning. Do we get it or does it occur SW of us? Odds favor the miss to the SW but we cannot completely discount it just in case.

Hey Les - it looks like that MCS later tonight into tomorrow morning may clip you guys and affect mainly points south of the river. Both HRRR and NAM 3km try to pop a couple cells up this way this afternoon so we shall see

[tron777]

12Z ILN sounding shows a healthy cap in place today. So anything that tries to pop later this afternoon and evening is going to have a hard time doing so. If anything can form, it won't be able to sustain itself for very long. I think with that secondary front coming in on Friday (which gives us the wonderful weekend and 2 day heat break) offers up a better chance. I do believe an MCS will form later tonight and dive SE into Fri morning. Do we get it or does it occur SW of us? Odds favor the miss to the SW but we cannot completely discount it just in case.

Hey Les - it looks like that MCS later tonight into tomorrow morning may clip you guys and affect mainly points south of the river. Both HRRR and NAM 3km try to pop a couple cells up this way this afternoon so we shall see

I'll be at my Brother's in Milford tonight thru Sat afternoon watching the kids. Hope to see something here back home though. Could actually use some rain since we got missed the last time.

[Bgoney]

Thankfully, another stiff breeze going out here this morning , with some decent gusts, probably around d 20mph

[tron777]

Thankfully, another stiff breeze going out here this morning , with some decent gusts, probably around d 20mph

Very little wind here. I'm in a low spot so I don't get those 10-20 mph gusts that a lot of you get on days like this. I usually only get good winds now in summer if there are t-storms or a cold frontal passage. But the good part is that during severe wx, folks on top of the hill take the damage and rarely does any damage occur here.

[tpweather]

Thankfully, another stiff breeze going out here this morning , with some decent gusts, probably around d 20mph

Yes could see some decent gusts during the day. Of course mainly a warm wind gust though.

[tron777]

12Z GooFuS offering scattered action late this afternoon and evening and from Cincy on southwest, maybe, as Mike mentioned, some folks can get clipped by the Fri AM MCS. Sure hope so imby then the lawn can make it next week when round 2 of the heat comes. Otherwise the sprinklers are coming out.

[tron777]

89'ed as of 12pm at CVG. Currently sitting at 90 imby.

[tron777]

12Z GFS coming in much cooler next week. Only 1 day in the 90s, Wed when a front pushes in with t-storms in the afternoon and evening. Would love for this to be correct, but I am going with 90 or better Mon - Wed of next week. Not sure I buy a faster frontal passage on this run. Thursday has been what models have been showing including the GFS, until this run.

[tron777]

90 as of 12:15pm at CVG. I'll update the contest thread also.

[tron777]

12Z Euro has a couple of storms later today then a dry frontal passage tomorrow morning with any storms firing up over Central KY Fri afternoon.

[tron777]

91 / 73 / 100 as of 2pm at CVG. 92 here for my high so far. Dew of 74 with a HI of 102.

[Bgoney]

ww0375_radar_big.gif

[tron777]

T-storm watch out for our Eastern counties in Ohio until 9pm EDT. This includes ILN, Columbus and just East of the Dayton Metro.


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0375.html


Marginal risk for everyone else not in the watch. A slight risk of severe wx from the SPC in their afternoon update. Damaging winds and hail are the primary hazards.

ww0375_radar.gif

day1otlk_1630.gif

So this is interesting eh? Models have not shown much happening but radar is showing a little something trying to develop.

Radar.png

CAPE values are 4000-5000 J/KG range and DCAPE values are between a 1000 over NKY to 1500 near I-70. Bulks hear is decent for the I-70 corridor. Not much for shear for Cincinnati and points south. Worth watching so we'll see.

[MVWxObserver]

Got to 92 in CVG, 93 DAY and 94 CMH on Wed.

[tron777]

I'm at my brother's house on kid watching duty so if CVG gets 89ed or a 90 today, can someone update the contest thread please? Thanks!

[tron777]

Watching the mcs moving in... Will we get clipped or is it going to be a swing and a miss to the SW? Folks along and southwest of the river especially will have the best chance.

[tron777]

Looking like a swing and a miss for the Metro. Ugh...