June 2022 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Good morning! I hope none of you have much clean up to do. A calmer day today and the 70s! Rain comes back Fri afternoon or evening, ending Sat morning. 0.25" possible no severe wx expected. Then we heat up with 90 possible Tues, Wed and maybe Thurs then more storms and we drop again later next week.

[tron777]

56 here this morning! CVG checking in with 57.

[tpweather]

Good morning and what an afternoon and early evening yesterday. Need to check the rain gauge but well over 2 inches. Limbs to pick up this morning and of course check around the house and roof to see if there is any damage. Seems like I go hit hard with each round that came through. I know CVG reported a gust at 69mph yesterday and not doubt winds at times were close to this at my house. The sewers were having a hard time keeping up with the heavy rain for probably 30 minutes and was overflowing into yards.

We had the forecast correct which is good and believe it took some people by surprise because even the day before models were not to keen on severe weather.

[tron777]

Good morning and what an afternoon and early evening yesterday. Need to check the rain gauge but well over 2 inches. Limbs to pick up this morning and of course check around the house and roof to see if there is any damage. Seems like I go hit hard with each round that came through. I know CVG reported a gust at 69mph yesterday and not doubt winds at times were close to this at my house. The sewers were having a hard time keeping up with the heavy rain for probably 30 minutes and was overflowing into yards.

We had the forecast correct which is good and believe it took some people by surprise because even the day before models were not to keen on severe weather.

I agree Tim... the other day I even posted that the tornado threat was going to be low and that was completely wrong. It didn't become apparent in the data until it got very close to the event unfolding which is a lot of times just how it goes in weather unfortunately despite our best efforts.

[tron777]

I believe Ohio had 2 tornadoes. The one that crossed I-75 in Tipp City that got the Meijer Distribution center and the other one NW of Springfield that I believe Mike mentioned yesterday. There might be more pending ILN storm damage surveys in the next day or two. Wondering if there wasn't one out in Brown or Adams co too.

[tpweather]

Hey Les. I am almost always very conservative about severe weather and over the many years of watching it pan out the threats very seldom pan out like models show. What I saw Tuesday though was a low pressure gaining strength as it headed in our area and I talk about this in the winter but very seldom in June. That worried me and though I never expected a big outbreak I thought the chances for a few to form were rather high. I believe models have very little to go on with a system like yesterday.

Should see some sunshine later today but it may take a few hours especially where the heaviest rain fell plus this afternoon you will see some clouds build up like usual. Friday rain will return but much tamer which is good for many folks.

The heat next week and believe the Euro is a little to high with temps. That model just has a hard time in calculating lush vegetation and it seems once we get closer to the event it brings those temps down. When we have a dry period for several weeks and we get a hot spell the Euro is much better. Upper 80's and dew points near 70 for sure Tuesday-Thursday and can we see a 90 degree temp and yes but hard to see much higher. Looks to be short term as the ridge heads back west next weekend.

Looks like the Gfs is also heading higher with temps next week as well. Still believe overdone but at least it makes me check my forecast.

[tron777]

Here we go... some updates from ILN and I think they have confirmed the Tipp City one and another out near Sardinia in Brown Co. The Springfield one I don't believe has been confirmed as of yet.

https://www.weather.gov/iln/20220608

[tron777]

Hey Les. I am almost always very conservative about severe weather and over the many years of watching it pan out the threats very seldom pan out like models show. What I saw Tuesday though was a low pressure gaining strength as it headed in our area and I talk about this in the winter but very seldom in June. That worried me and though I never expected a big outbreak I thought the chances for a few to form were rather high. I believe models have very little to go on with a system like yesterday.

Should see some sunshine later today but it may take a few hours especially where the heaviest rain fell plus this afternoon you will see some clouds build up like usual. Friday rain will return but much tamer which is good for many folks.

The heat next week and believe the Euro is a little to high with temps. That model just has a hard time in calculating lush vegetation and it seems once we get closer to the event it brings those temps down. When we have a dry period for several weeks and we get a hot spell the Euro is much better. Upper 80's and dew points near 70 for sure Tuesday-Thursday and can we see a 90 degree temp and yes but hard to see much higher. Looks to be short term as the ridge heads back west next weekend.

Looks like the Gfs is also heading higher with temps next week as well. Still believe overdone but at least it makes me check my forecast.

Tim, it was indeed an odd set up for June yesterday and one we usually don't see this late in the season. Earlier in the spring, yes. Usually by now the jet is further north so we are normally hot, humid and get those PM popcorn storms. not the case this year with the active pattern we've been seeing.

A temp break next week with 2-3 days of 89'ed or a 90 possible. I am also not going as high as 92 or 93 as some local media outlets have been advertising. Reasons are exactly as you have described them. Wet ground, very lush vegetation and high dew points. I think a front by Thurs or Fri of next week will knock the heat down a peg temporarily. If we stay in this fight it'll be an active summer for sure.

[tpweather]

Bgoney keeps us updated on the La Nina. Third year and hard to fine in the date when this has happened before. I did fine 1973-75 had 3 years in a row and then we switched to a weak El Nino and we know that the next few winters brought us. No doubt the climate has changed some but do these events outweigh other things going on is a tough question to answer. Usually we do well in the winter with a weak El Nino but once we get to moderate or strong then we usually get to warm and folks west of here do much better in terms of snow and cold.

[tpweather]

Les I noticed the gfs is trying to form another tropical system late in the period. Model is good at showing this way too much but in the past couple of weeks it worked out well. Again this would be over Florida and folks east and makes sense because strong ridging in the southwest and south central states. We will see if this pans out and with the last tropical system it stayed rather far south which you would expect this time of year.

[cloudy72]

I believe Ohio had 2 tornadoes. The one that crossed I-75 in Tipp City that got the Meijer Distribution center and the other one NW of Springfield that I believe Mike mentioned yesterday. There might be more pending ILN storm damage surveys in the next day or two. Wondering if there wasn't one out in Brown or Adams co too.

Yeah I am thinking the one NW of Springfield will be confirmed as there were multiple debris signatures on radar. It must have hit something.

Brown and Adams counties may be more difficult as lots of rural space out that way. There may have been a touchdown but whether it hit anything other than a tree or fence post is the question.

[cloudy72]

Still over 8,000 people in the Buckeye state with no power, mainly over in SE part (VInton/Athens counties).

Also almost 10k out in neighboring West Virginia

[tron777]

Bgoney keeps us updated on the La Nina. Third year and hard to fine in the date when this has happened before. I did fine 1973-75 had 3 years in a row and then we switched to a weak El Nino and we know that the next few winters brought us. No doubt the climate has changed some but do these events outweigh other things going on is a tough question to answer. Usually we do well in the winter with a weak El Nino but once we get to moderate or strong then we usually get to warm and folks west of here do much better in terms of snow and cold.

A third year Nina has only happened 3 times since 1950. When do you ask? Late spring 1973 through spring 1976. Late summer 1998 through early spring 2001. And of course the current Triple Dip we are seeing now.

[tron777]

Les I noticed the gfs is trying to form another tropical system late in the period. Model is good at showing this way too much but in the past couple of weeks it worked out well. Again this would be over Florida and folks east and makes sense because strong ridging in the southwest and south central states. We will see if this pans out and with the last tropical system it stayed rather far south which you would expect this time of year.

I've been noticing that as well Tim. It's trying to spin up another Alex type of system. No idea if it's right or not but of course we always have to keep one eye open on the tropics now thru Nov.

[tron777]

I believe Ohio had 2 tornadoes. The one that crossed I-75 in Tipp City that got the Meijer Distribution center and the other one NW of Springfield that I believe Mike mentioned yesterday. There might be more pending ILN storm damage surveys in the next day or two. Wondering if there wasn't one out in Brown or Adams co too.

Yeah I am thinking the one NW of Springfield will be confirmed as there were multiple debris signatures on radar. It must have hit something.

Brown and Adams counties may be more difficult as lots of rural space out that way. There may have been a touchdown but whether it hit anything other than a tree or fence post is the question.

Agreed Mike. I am guessing a total of 3 in our forecast area for tornadoes is possible.

[MVWxObserver]

Total ended up being 1.20”

Great to hear Mike and glad that your dome has been cracking lately!

[MVWxObserver]

I believe Ohio had 2 tornadoes. The one that crossed I-75 in Tipp City that got the Meijer Distribution center and the other one NW of Springfield that I believe Mike mentioned yesterday. There might be more pending ILN storm damage surveys in the next day or two. Wondering if there wasn't one out in Brown or Adams co too.

ILN may do assessments of a couple areas of Darke, too. Have to wonder if some downed barns and damaged homes along Schnorf-Jones Road were due to straight line wind damage.

In the 600 block of Schnorf-Jones Road in Darke County there are reports of downed barns and damaged homes, according to initial emergency scanner traffic.

SR 49 at Red River-West Grove Road in Darke County is shutdown due to a crash. Initial emergency scanner traffic indicated the crash was caused by a tornado.

[MVWxObserver]

Here we go... some updates from ILN and I think they have confirmed the Tipp City one and another out near Sardinia in Brown Co. The Springfield one I don't believe has been confirmed as of yet.

https://www.weather.gov/iln/20220608

I believe Sardinia is where firefighter/ EMT Todd's dept is located. Wonder if he witnessed any of that action?

[tron777]

Here we go... some updates from ILN and I think they have confirmed the Tipp City one and another out near Sardinia in Brown Co. The Springfield one I don't believe has been confirmed as of yet.

https://www.weather.gov/iln/20220608

I believe Sardinia is where firefighter/ EMT Todd's dept is located. Wonder if he witnessed any of that action?

I have not seen Todd post on Facebook in several months. I'm not sure what he has been up to.

[MVWxObserver]

https://www.whio.com/news/local/man-cri ... 6F3CZKEE4/

Sadly, this morning Charles Zimmer, 34 passed away. Prayers and thoughts with he and his wife's children and other family members.

Currently 63 here in G'ville.

[tron777]

Only 67 here so far today. Per the visible, we should see increasing sunshine this afternoon so temps should have no problem getting up into the 70s.... for CVG and my hood, thinking mid 70s at least.

[tpweather]

Les the latest gfs is starting to up the chances for rain late Sunday into Tuesday. You are correct that the battle zone is going to be near us and models will be catching up to what they show and what will finally happen. The euro may not see this at all so will be interesting over the next couple of days to see how the Euro ends up seeing the pattern next week. I still believe you are going to see a big difference over the Ohio Valley and may have a day where the temp difference between Columbus and Paducah could be 15 degrees or more when an mcs hits a certain area. Going to be muggy and that will happen but how much heat can get in here is tbd.

[tron777]

Les the latest gfs is starting to up the chances for rain late Sunday into Tuesday. You are correct that the battle zone is going to be near us and models will be catching up to what they show and what will finally happen. The euro may not see this at all so will be interesting over the next couple of days to see how the Euro ends up seeing the pattern next week. I still believe you are going to see a big difference over the Ohio Valley and may have a day where the temp difference between Columbus and Paducah could be 15 degrees or more when an mcs hits a certain area. Going to be muggy and that will happen but how much heat can get in here is tbd.

Tim, I'd love to see this become a reality for our overall summer time pattern. Keep it lush and green please! I usually get a mini drought every summer and my lawn burns out starting in mid July thru Sept or Oct depending on the year. I'd love to have a green lawn all year for a change. My plants are also doing outstanding with this pattern we've been in too. I love it, less watering for me and better on the pocketbook. Anyway... if the frontal boundary stalls nearby which has been my thinking, then we are in MCS City as I've mentioned before. The heat is going to try and come in but a cold front is going to want to keep trying to drop in art the same time. The heat and the cold will continue to do battle right over the OV as we have already been seeing. If we see any 90s next week, it'll be a brief occurrence. If you believe the Euro, all you would get are 3 days tops. That really isn't a big deal since we are lush and have seen plenty of rain going into it. You get a couple of weeks of 90s then OK, I will change my tune.

[MVWxObserver]

https://www.whio.com/news/local/nationa ... DB662FMTE/

Confirmed EF2 in Miami Co and an EF1 in Clark Co.

[tron777]

12Z Euro is in agreement with the start of our next system for later Fri into Sat minus the fact that it wants to linger drizzle / light rain thru Sat afternoon. Sure hope not. I have things to do outside as I am sure most of you do as well. Then for next week... the model has nothing until Wed afternoon and evening and the coverage is isolated at best. Front comes thru Thurs afternoon and evening and the heat is over for next week.