June 2022 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

For next week, the Euro keeps flip flopping from the GFS's solution to the hotter and drier solution. The 12Z run today is the hotter solution again. IMO, this model has been very inconsistent. To me, the GFS has done better with this pattern of persistence, even over the winter if you recall. I know it's weird for me to say it, but it's true, at least for our local area. I am speaking from a medium to long range point of view by the way.

I agree and no doubt the hot air is going to expand over the weekend and early next week in the central USA. I just believe at the moment we are in the zone to get hit once again with stormy weather. Example next week could see temps on Tuesday or Wednesday in Columbus at 75 during the day while Paducah could be 93. Only an example but I could see that kind of difference and in June that is a big difference .

[tron777]

I do believe there may be some spin in the air with this low and if you get one of those storms to isolate they can produce a tornado. I agree strong winds and some hail look possible but I am not throwing out the chance of a tornado or two to form later in the day. Again a lot will come together in the next 24 hours and lets see how this plays out.

I'm going to wait and see how tomorrow looks. If we can get some sun going for the first half of the day, it would help the severe chances out tremendously. We should have some shear, and lift with the approaching low pressure / shortwave.

[tron777]

I hit 79 today, CVG topped out at 80 degrees. Scattered action this evening otherwise all eyes are on tomorrow as previously mentioned.

[tron777]

The boys also like our severe chances on Wed....

Wednesday will start off dry with a weak bubble of high pressure
centered over the Great Lakes. However, the front across north-
central Kentucky will lift back northward as a warm front as a
shortwave approaches from the west in the afternoon. Much of the
latest guidance has trended a little stronger and further north
with a surface low reflection, and perhaps a little slower as
well.

There is still some uncertainty with the evolution of storms,
but it`s possible that some initial convection fires near the
warm front on Wednesday afternoon, especially across northern
Kentucky and southern Ohio. Then with the approach of the low,
we will likely see widespread showers and thunderstorms moving
west to east across the CWA during the late afternoon and
evening hours.

While the exact position of the low and warm front are still
uncertain, based on the latest trends, the potential for severe
weather looks apparent for much of the CWA. Damaging wind gusts
and hail will be possible, and a tornado risk can`t be
discounted based on the presence/possible location of the
aforementioned features.

Convection should sweep east of the area Wednesday night, with
lows in the mid to upper 50s.

[MVWxObserver]

Looks like a nice downpour heading towards Eric's hood at the moment. 73 IMBY and pretty cloudy. Have not seen much sunshine at all.

Hey Mike and others my gauge picked up a half inch from this event.

[tron777]

Nice Eric! Sounds like most folks who needed or wanted the rain, got it.

[tron777]

I checked the 18Z NAM and HRRR and it's the same as 12Z. The NAM has more of a severe signal, including tornadoes because the low tracks well north of us over Northern IN. So we get warm sectored with plenty of CAPE. The HRRR has the low further south, tracking right over CVG Land. So we need to watch the track of the next shortwave for tomorrow. If that warm front passes north of I-70 like the NAM suggests, look out! If the low is further south over us, the severe threat would also shift more to the south.

Now for those who have been regulars around here for years, you already know this. For any new folks... the stronger the low pressure gets, the more north it tracks. The more north it tracks, the warmth and humidity will be able to get in here and we'll see a good amount of sunshine to prime the atmosphere. If the low is weaker, it tracks further south. We'd see more clouds and less sun as a result and lower instability for storms to work with and thus a lower severe threat.

All we can do is see how things look in the morning and we should be able to make a better call on this next event.

[MVWxObserver]

https://www.whio.com/news/local/fiery-h ... ATFL3U36M/

So far there hasn't been any indication that wx had a part, but this morning a Darke Co couple while either taking off or landing in their helicopter, crashed on their own property southeast of Greenville. Krista Zimmer, 35 was killed and her husband Charles Zimmer, 34 is critically injured and was taken by Careflight to Miami Valley Hospital in Dayton. NTSB will start investigating tomorrow and hopefully the couple's "black box" can provide some clues as to what led to the crash. Prayers and thoughts with Mr. Zimmer and their family members and for him for healing from his injuries.

Currently 73 and mostly cloudy here in G'ville.

[tron777]

18Z GFS tracks the low north of us also.

[cloudy72]

Sounds like tomorrow may turn out interesting for sure! Glad you got that rain Eric! My dome came back to work in full force today although downtown Dayton had a nice downpour.

[Bgoney]

LaNina beat goes on, the beat goes on....

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[tron777]

LaNina beat goes on, the beat goes on....



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Yes Sir! Triple Dip Nina in full effect this summer and into the Autumn as well. Winter time impacts, if any, to be determined of course.

[Wxlrnr]

Maybe I should not have emptied the rain guage. Raining for the last 20 minutes. Still coming down.

[tron777]

Warm front is to our SW. As the strengthening low heads NE today, the front will become a warm front and move north of most of our area. The warm frontal position is key... the track of the low is key... and how much heating do we get ahead of the MCS is also key. Anytime after 3-4pm we should be fair game for action. No changes from the SPC at this time other then to add the 2% TOR risk area now due to the warm front.

[tron777]

The low is just N of St. Louis and the associated MCS is also back in that direction from STL into ILL. How much sun we get between now and about 1-2pm will tell the tale as well as the warm frontal position which again, is currently to our SW.

From the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A few items to note with today`s forecast. First, while models
are coming into closer agreement in the overall evolution of the
surface features in the region today, finer details are not
likely to be accurately depicted until the incoming convection
and surface wind fields are occurring or have a consensus in the
CAMs later on. That being said, a warm front is expected to
develop over the southwest CWA this morning and lift to the I-70
corridor in the afternoon. The incoming surface low should
track along or just south of it this afternoon and early
evening.

Therein lies the challenge with todays forecast given the
potential for severe weather. Warm fronts cannot be trusted. As
the surface low interacts with it this afternoon, low level wind
shear may support some storms to become tornadic. The primary
threat today is damaging winds and heavy downbursts with
discrete cells or cell clusters. Enough deeper shear is present
to permit discrete storms to produce hail, but it doesn`t look
to be conducive for large hail today.

Current timing would have the region dry through the early
afternoon. Highs will reach within a few degrees of 80 and be
inhibited from eking much higher than this given the increased
cloud cover.

[tron777]

Overnight guidance has a few timing issues but at least they all have the low tracking near or just north of the I-70 corridor. If enough heating is realized, the warm front may put some part of AV Country in an interesting spot for severe wx even before the MCS gets here. Do storms fire along the warm front this afternoon before the MCS arrives late this afternoon into this evening? Not all guidance agrees on that. The warm front is not being handled well on guidance so this maybe a wait and see thing. Now casting as we usually do a lot of times. ILN's AFD certainly hinted at this.

[tron777]

Overnight GFS and Euro both trying to give our contest goers some love. Our first potential 90 is possible Tues and Wed of next week before storms put the brakes on the heat. Let's see what happens there. Gonna be close!

[tron777]

Based on the below surface map... you can pick out where the warm front is easily by looking at the dews in green. 50s for dews at CVG. LOU has a dew of 68. Looks like it's near, perhaps just S of the I-64 Corridor over Southern IN and Central KY as of this writing. Gotta keep an eye on it's position as the day wears on.

bigsfc.gif

[tron777]

ALERT: Slight risk has been trimmed back to pretty much focus it right over us. Still 15% wind and hail but the TOR risk has increased to 5% due to the warm front for the heart of AV Country.

day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif

[tron777]

BG StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2022/06/08/stormt ... rt-day-68/

[cloudy72]

Whoa! Let's hope the 3km NAM is off it's rocker. Prob why SPC added a 5% TOR here.

nam-nest-indiana-sig_tor-4729200.png

[cloudy72]

HRRR not as ominous but still a concern esp for SW Ohio folk.

hrrr-indiana-sig_tor-4729200.png

[cloudy72]

Um yeah, lets hope the 3km NAM is off it's rocker.......oh my

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[Mfitz730]

Spotted on 275 near Lawrenceburg this morning. Looks like the chasers are eyeing our region!

[tpweather]

Good Morning and a nice morning should be followed by a rather rough afternoon and evening. We are getting into the summer phase of weather and tornado's usually start to diminish. One reason is low pressures are usually not very strong and you are not getting those rotating winds. Today's event does have a nice compact low pressure and rather strong for a June event. That is why I through out the tornado threat yesterday. Again I am usually the most conservative person on this forum when it comes to severe weather as I believe models tend to overdo severe weather. Today though the set up is one where a few tornado's can pop up if you are just south of the mcs and warm front. Again this is not a big outbreak by any means but things are coming together where a few can pop up. Are these the strong tornado's and no because the amount of time on the ground tends to be shorter in duration but you could see one get to f1. My guess is they will issue a tornado watch for parts of the area though it will not be a broad area like you see sometimes. Still expecting some heavy rains and of course straight line winds with this system. Thursday looks wonderful before the next chance of rain later Friday and early Saturday. Then next week how far northeast will the heat go and how much of a push back we may see because of a mcs. Either way upper 80's for sure with higher dew points will make it feel hot and getting a day or 2 of 90 is possible.