June 2022 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

As of 6/5, MJO is in Phase 8 and expected to take a tour thru Phase 1 then 2 by early July. If correct, I don't see this pattern changing anytime soon.

Good Morning Les. Can we see this happen in about 6 months or so.

[tron777]

Tim... wonderful post! The tropics could throw a wrench into my thinking as you perfectly mentioned that risk. It's a risk I am willing to take with my call. As you said, everything is so lush and green. We've seen models 2 different times so far, trying to get the 90s in here. Hottest temp so far at CVG was on 6/1 when we got 89'ed. That's been it so far. The heat eventually will come, it always does. But currently, I just don't see it settling in here for weeks on end. SW US, Texas, and the S Plains, yes... they are going to be in for one torrid summer but so far for us... we've been on the receiving end of some decent rains which has kept the majority of the heat at bay so far. The coolest air seems locked in over New England with the hottest air to our SW. We are in the battle zone between the two airmasses so MCS City in my opinion, is going to be the end result.

[tron777]

As of 6/5, MJO is in Phase 8 and expected to take a tour thru Phase 1 then 2 by early July. If correct, I don't see this pattern changing anytime soon.

Good Morning Les. Can we see this happen in about 6 months or so.

Good morning Tim! Yes please!

[tpweather]

Les, great post this morning. We are on the same page and both agree no heat wave in the near future. I do believe we get that period where temps head into the mid-upper 80's and once in awhile a 90 degree here and there but the main issue will be the humidity. I hope to get my mulch down this weekend with temps nice but I never put it down with a wet ground so it may be delayed.

[tron777]

Les, great post this morning. We are on the same page and both agree no heat wave in the near future. I do believe we get that period where temps head into the mid-upper 80's and once in awhile a 90 degree here and there but the main issue will be the humidity. I hope to get my mulch down this weekend with temps nice but I never put it down with a wet ground so it may be delayed.

We are 100% on the same page and I like those temps. you've outlined here. Looks perfect to me!

[tron777]

Seeing some breaks in the clouds and a little sun peaking thru every now and again. I don't think we are going to see a bunch of heating today thus lower coverage, but not completely zero either for today.

[tron777]

BG StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2022/06/07/stormt ... update-67/

[tron777]

12Z NAM and HRRR both agree today on scattered showers / storms potentially coming in from the NW around the early afternoon time frame. That's it for today. Coverage is scattered. Some will remain dry. Then we heat up tomorrow (probably L80s) as the next MCS comes in during the afternoon / evening hours.

[tron777]

Radar now showing a line of showers that has formed from roughly Lake Erie (Sandusky Bay) SW to North of the Indy Metro area. Nothing severe at this time and I really don't expect much in the way of severe wx today, if any. That line really looks to be the only shot at rain today in my opinion. Movement of the line of showers is to the ESE.

[Wxlrnr]

Checked my rain guage, picked up another 1.05 inches overnight for a total so far of 1.85 inches.

[tron777]

Looking ahead using the 12Z GFS... the model continues the higher rain chances tomorrow afternoon and evening. Again Fri into Sat morning as previously discussed. No changes there for the most part. Then late Sunday, esp by the evening, the model has a few isolated storms possible mainly North of the Metro. I-70 Crew certainly would have a shot at a few widely scattered storms. Those fade away with the loss of daytime heating.

For next week, a warm front moves in from the SW and stalls providing more storm chances for Tues and Wed. Mainly Northern posters Thurs and Fri. Point being... my MCS City thoughts for the longer term, at least right now, looks great! My idea of the core of the heat staying to our West is perfect. Can it change? Of course, but I have enough confidence to keep my thoughts intact because I continue to see little change in the overall pattern. NW Flow patterns are known for big wind makers, a lot of thunder and lightning and very heavy rainfall. If we are in the middle between the cool air over New England and the heat to the West and SW over the Plains... then we are going to be in the line of fire locally. Something to watch as next week and beyond unfolds...

[cloudy72]

Looks like a nice downpour heading towards Eric's hood at the moment. 73 IMBY and pretty cloudy. Have not seen much sunshine at all.

[tpweather]

Looking ahead using the 12Z GFS... the model continues the higher rain chances tomorrow afternoon and evening. Again Fri into Sat morning as previously discussed. No changes there for the most part. Then late Sunday, esp by the evening, the model has a few isolated storms possible mainly North of the Metro. I-70 Crew certainly would have a shot at a few widely scattered storms. Those fade away with the loss of daytime heating.

For next week, a warm front moves in from the SW and stalls providing more storm chances for Tues and Wed. Mainly Northern posters Thurs and Fri. Point being... my MCS City thoughts for the longer term, at least right now, looks great! My idea of the core of the heat staying to our West is perfect. Can it change? Of course, but I have enough confidence to keep my thoughts intact because I continue to see little change in the overall pattern. NW Flow patterns are known for big wind makers, a lot of thunder and lightning and very heavy rainfall. If we are in the middle between the cool air over New England and the heat to the West and SW over the Plains... then we are going to be in the line of fire locally. Something to watch as next week and beyond unfolds...

Great Post Les. Just wanted to add that if the heat continues to build and try to force itself northward the MCS complexes could become really strong next week. Yes we have had some this week but the heat was not in full force. These can become big wind maker's like you mentioned and some heavy rains in the same areas.

[tpweather]

The LLJ we talked about yesterday did fire up but the heaviest rains stayed to the south with some areas of southern Kentucky getting nearly 5 inches of rainfall. This time of year when the LLJ fires up at night rainfall totals can be very very high.

[tron777]

Looking ahead using the 12Z GFS... the model continues the higher rain chances tomorrow afternoon and evening. Again Fri into Sat morning as previously discussed. No changes there for the most part. Then late Sunday, esp by the evening, the model has a few isolated storms possible mainly North of the Metro. I-70 Crew certainly would have a shot at a few widely scattered storms. Those fade away with the loss of daytime heating.

For next week, a warm front moves in from the SW and stalls providing more storm chances for Tues and Wed. Mainly Northern posters Thurs and Fri. Point being... my MCS City thoughts for the longer term, at least right now, looks great! My idea of the core of the heat staying to our West is perfect. Can it change? Of course, but I have enough confidence to keep my thoughts intact because I continue to see little change in the overall pattern. NW Flow patterns are known for big wind makers, a lot of thunder and lightning and very heavy rainfall. If we are in the middle between the cool air over New England and the heat to the West and SW over the Plains... then we are going to be in the line of fire locally. Something to watch as next week and beyond unfolds...

Great Post Les. Just wanted to add that if the heat continues to build and try to force itself northward the MCS complexes could become really strong next week. Yes we have had some this week but the heat was not in full force. These can become big wind maker's like you mentioned and some heavy rains in the same areas.

We continue to be lock n step with our thinking here. Let's hope the forecast materializes as such.

[tron777]

MD Issued - Watch unlikely to be issued.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1072.html

Pretty much goes along with our thinking here at AV that today would be a low rain chance / lower severe wx risk day.

[tpweather]

MD Issued - Watch unlikely to be issued.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1072.html

Pretty much goes along with our thinking here at AV that today would be a low rain chance / lower severe wx risk day.

I agree and though an isolated severe storm can happen it is very unlikely. Wednesday imo though is a much different day and I am one to downplay severe threats as they usually end up with just heavy rain makers but a rather strong low heading into the area and this time of year that can add to the severe threat. So I expect a broad area of low end risk but my guess this will need to be monitor on Wednesday and there could be an area somewhere in the Ohio Valley that gets in some severe weather which also may include Tornado's. To early to pinpoint but something to look at over the next 24 -36 hours.

[tron777]

Agreed Tim... SPC is already issuing a slight risk for tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night for most AV posters. TOR risk is very very low. 15% wind and hail threats. Hopefully less clouds and more sun tomorrow for some action!

day2otlk_1730.gif

[cloudy72]

Here is the sounding forecast on the 3km NAM for CVG at 6pm tomorrow (WED).

nam4km_2022060712_034_KCVG.png

[tron777]

For next week, the Euro keeps flip flopping from the GFS's solution to the hotter and drier solution. The 12Z run today is the hotter solution again. IMO, this model has been very inconsistent. To me, the GFS has done better with this pattern of persistence, even over the winter if you recall. I know it's weird for me to say it, but it's true, at least for our local area. I am speaking from a medium to long range point of view by the way.

[cloudy72]

Hmm...this is rather interesting. Maybe just a blip?

[tron777]

Here is the sounding forecast on the 3km NAM for CVG at 6pm tomorrow (WED).


nam4km_2022060712_034_KCVG.png

That looks nice and all but the NAM has been awful recently. HRRR has isolated severe.

hrrr_2022060712_034_39.07--84.61.png

To be honest, I don't believe the HRRR either unless we see more clouds vs sun. Somewhere in the middle of those 2 solutions is probably more likely so the Slight Risk from the SPC looks good for now. As always, we'll monitor conditions tomorrow morning to get a better handle on how the day may play out.

[tron777]

Hmm...this is rather interesting. Maybe just a blip?

Gotta be a blip..

[cloudy72]

That looks nice and all but the NAM has been awful recently. HRRR has isolated severe.

Very true!

[tpweather]

I do believe there may be some spin in the air with this low and if you get one of those storms to isolate they can produce a tornado. I agree strong winds and some hail look possible but I am not throwing out the chance of a tornado or two to form later in the day. Again a lot will come together in the next 24 hours and lets see how this plays out.