Re: April 2022 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

today is a bad weather day for my area. they have severe thunderstorms listed with gusty winds large hail and possibly tornado's? this is pretty rare . can anyone take a look and tell me what paramitors are in place or why they have such extreme weather in the forecast today . they are saying after 11 am , i will have my camera and phone charged and ready. you never know when you might get lucky and get that once in a lifetime tornado captured on film

The timing of the cold front is going to work out better for you. It just passed over us early this morning. Bad timing for severe wx. You'll see some good instability today, peak heating, steeper lapse rates, and better wind shear as well which is going to promote severe storms in your region.

[tpweather]

Good morning an got around .25 last night which is good and gives me 1 inch over the weekend. Next 2 days looks great but then we could get a nice dose of showers and thundershowers Wednesday and Thursday. We should be south of the warm front Friday and it becomes very humid and temps in the upper 80's. More rain Saturday before a wonderful cold front wipes out the heat and humidity. Love to see this pattern all summer where we get a couple of hot and humid days followed by a nice cold front with some rainfall and temps back below normal. Next week looks like we stay below normal in terms of temps so vegetation should remain in great shape.

[tpweather]

today is a bad weather day for my area. they have severe thunderstorms listed with gusty winds large hail and possibly tornado's? this is pretty rare . can anyone take a look and tell me what paramitors are in place or why they have such extreme weather in the forecast today . they are saying after 11 am , i will have my camera and phone charged and ready. you never know when you might get lucky and get that once in a lifetime tornado captured on film

The timing of the cold front is going to work out better for you. It just passed over us early this morning. Bad timing for severe wx. You'll see some good instability today, peak heating, steeper lapse rates, and better wind shear as well which is going to promote severe storms in your region.

I agree and saw this a couple of days ago and the only change is the severe threat is somewhat further north so the mid-atlantic and even southern New England can get in on some severe weather. These regions are not known for their severe weather especially tornado's.

[Bgoney]

Just read iln's AFD, you can tell it's been a dud severe season locally this spring, they seem to be chomping at the bit for later this week in anticipation for some active days

[tpweather]

Just read iln's AFD, you can tell it's been a dud severe season locally this spring, they seem to be chomping at the bit for later this week in anticipation for some active days

I agree Bgoney and the one thing I have been waiting for is the heat to build in Texas which has happened over the past week. This will help in fueling some storms later this week but will they be severe or does it turn out to be a heavy rain event. My guess is a little of both is possible. The local area has always been of the fringe of severe weather over the years and many years we get nothing severe at all but the years we do it really boost up the numbers and sort of throws off the averages.

[tron777]

Good morning an got around .25 last night which is good and gives me 1 inch over the weekend. Next 2 days looks great but then we could get a nice dose of showers and thundershowers Wednesday and Thursday. We should be south of the warm front Friday and it becomes very humid and temps in the upper 80's. More rain Saturday before a wonderful cold front wipes out the heat and humidity. Love to see this pattern all summer where we get a couple of hot and humid days followed by a nice cold front with some rainfall and temps back below normal. Next week looks like we stay below normal in terms of temps so vegetation should remain in great shape.

I'd love for this pattern to remain as well Tim, but we know it won't.

[cloudy72]

0.30" for me

[tron777]

Just read iln's AFD, you can tell it's been a dud severe season locally this spring, they seem to be chomping at the bit for later this week in anticipation for some active days

I agree Bgoney and the one thing I have been waiting for is the heat to build in Texas which has happened over the past week. This will help in fueling some storms later this week but will they be severe or does it turn out to be a heavy rain event. My guess is a little of both is possible. The local area has always been of the fringe of severe weather over the years and many years we get nothing severe at all but the years we do it really boost up the numbers and sort of throws off the averages.

Agree with you both. I think we're all ready for a little action as they say. We've had plenty of good ole fashioned pulse severe storms, but we're all waiting on something a bit more meaningful.

[tron777]

0.30" for me

Nice to see your dome has broken.

[tron777]

BG StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2022/05/16/stormt ... pdate-516/

[cloudy72]

0.30" for me

Nice to see your dome has broken.

Watered the plants last evening so that was my rain dance!

[cloudy72]

I do like the way the models are looking towards the end of the week - see potential for at least a couple of severe events in (or near) our hoods.

[tron777]

0.30" for me

Nice to see your dome has broken.

Watered the plants last evening so that was my rain dance!

Mike, it's amazing how many times that works, or if you wash the car.

[winterstormjoe]

As far as Saturday is concerned I'm hoping that the front can slow down a little to get my camping at Brookville IN trip in for Friday and Saturday. Hopefully the front can come through later Saturday night/Sunday morning as the 06z GFS is suggesting?

[airwolf76]

today is a bad weather day for my area. they have severe thunderstorms listed with gusty winds large hail and possibly tornado's? this is pretty rare . can anyone take a look and tell me what paramitors are in place or why they have such extreme weather in the forecast today . they are saying after 11 am , i will have my camera and phone charged and ready. you never know when you might get lucky and get that once in a lifetime tornado captured on film

The timing of the cold front is going to work out better for you. It just passed over us early this morning. Bad timing for severe wx. You'll see some good instability today, peak heating, steeper lapse rates, and better wind shear as well which is going to promote severe storms in your region.

we will see. there hasn't been any severe storms this year yet just a couple thunder showers. you normally don't see severe type cells till June and later around these parts.

[tron777]

today is a bad weather day for my area. they have severe thunderstorms listed with gusty winds large hail and possibly tornado's? this is pretty rare . can anyone take a look and tell me what paramitors are in place or why they have such extreme weather in the forecast today . they are saying after 11 am , i will have my camera and phone charged and ready. you never know when you might get lucky and get that once in a lifetime tornado captured on film

The timing of the cold front is going to work out better for you. It just passed over us early this morning. Bad timing for severe wx. You'll see some good instability today, peak heating, steeper lapse rates, and better wind shear as well which is going to promote severe storms in your region.

we will see. there hasn't been any severe storms this year yet just a couple thunder showers. you normally don't see severe type cells till June and later around these parts.

It's been that way for us also Charles. Been very little severe so far in the OV. Apr - June are usually our best months. We are halfway thru and so far it really has been a dud.

[tron777]

As far as Saturday is concerned I'm hoping that the front can slow down a little to get my camping at Brookville IN trip in for Friday and Saturday. Hopefully the front can come through later Saturday night/Sunday morning as the 06z GFS is suggesting?

Hey Joe... there is not much model agreement yet on timing. Friday should be a hot and dry day. Any t-storm action should hold off right now anyway until later Fri night into Sat morning. A break then more perhaps in the evening if we can destabilize ahead of the front. How Sat morning plays out will depend on what happens later. Currently Sunday is dry. Now this can change as you've mentioned Joe, but this is my current interpretation going into the 12Z model suite today.

[tron777]

12Z GFS has weakening convection Wed afternoon and evening moving in and some more overnight into Thurs morning. Then another round as the front comes back north as a warm front Thurs evening / overnight. A dry and hot Friday. Scattered storms Sat afternoon becoming likely overnight into Sun morning then cooler and less humid.

Next week could be well below avg if current trends pan out...

[tron777]

The MJO is finally on the move! Those model forecasts Bgoney posted previously are right. We're in phase 6 per the Aussies as of 5/14. We're probably in 7 by now. When does it die? Model guidance ranges from getting into Phase 7 then weakening into the neutral Circle. Phase 8 then it dies. Even as far as Phase 1 then dying. That is going to probably determine how we end May and begin June. I am going to venture to say we avg below normal in temps and above avg in rain for the rest of May as a whole beginning next week. Let's see what happens.

[tron777]

12Z Euro has a weakening batch midday Wed coming thru. Then another small line possible late Wed night into early Thurs morning. GFS seems much more impressive with the coverage versus the Euro right now. Hot Friday then decent coverage Sat afternoon and evening with the front.

[tron777]

Dews have dropped down into the 40s now! Dew You Feel Like I Dew?

[tron777]

Tim... this is for you!

Per NWS Fairbanks:

Since 1923 (99 years!!), the cooperative observing station at Denali National Park Headquarters has kept record of the snowfall, and 2021-2022 was the snowiest winter of them all! We thank Denali Park for their continued dedication to observing the weather, which has created one of the best long term climate records in all of Interior Alaska. #akwx

AKSnow.jpg

[tpweather]

Tim... this is for you!

Per NWS Fairbanks:

Since 1923 (99 years!!), the cooperative observing station at Denali National Park Headquarters has kept record of the snowfall, and 2021-2022 was the snowiest winter of them all! We thank Denali Park for their continued dedication to observing the weather, which has created one of the best long term climate records in all of Interior Alaska. #akwx

AKSnow.jpg

Hey Les and thanks. With so much more water vapor in the atmosphere this really makes sense especially for places in the north. My guess we will probably see many more records like this in northern and central Canada and parts of Siberia. Many of these places are rather dry and with just a little more water vapor means more snowfall. Of course Denali Park gets tons of snow but places like Barrow will continue to see more snow if the pattern continues which again mother nature will end up balancing things out so how long this last is want we can debate. Do we see some strong El Nino's in the near future which can really add so much water vapor or do we go into a period of La Nina's and this would probably stop the increase of water vapor at the current rate. Many more things in this equation that the global warming folks can never wrap their heads around or they are making to much money by promoting Global Warming.

[tron777]

Tim... this is for you!

Per NWS Fairbanks:

Since 1923 (99 years!!), the cooperative observing station at Denali National Park Headquarters has kept record of the snowfall, and 2021-2022 was the snowiest winter of them all! We thank Denali Park for their continued dedication to observing the weather, which has created one of the best long term climate records in all of Interior Alaska. #akwx

AKSnow.jpg

Hey Les and thanks. With so much more water vapor in the atmosphere this really makes sense especially for places in the north. My guess we will probably see many more records like this in northern and central Canada and parts of Siberia. Many of these places are rather dry and with just a little more water vapor means more snowfall. Of course Denali Park gets tons of snow but places like Barrow will continue to see more snow if the pattern continues which again mother nature will end up balancing things out so how long this last is want we can debate. Do we see some strong El Nino's in the near future which can really add so much water vapor or do we go into a period of La Nina's and this would probably stop the increase of water vapor at the current rate. Many more things in this equation that the global warming folks can never wrap their heads around or they are making to much money by promoting Global Warming.

This year is the third Nina year in a row or a "triple dip" Nina as they call it. Only 3 times since 1950 has this occurred so not much to go on to see how our summer / tropical season is going to go. I guess we'll see together. It is making my call for the 90 degree day contest tough to come up with.

[Bgoney]

Dews have dropped down into the 40s now! Dew You Feel Like I Dew?

One of the best feel good days of the spring. Wonderful to work in