Re: April 2022 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Getting some heavy downpours now as this last batch works thru. I'll post an updated total around lunchtime. Should be in the 0.30-0.40" range I would suspect.

[winterstormjoe]

Just looked out of my office window here in Fairfield and the visibility is significantly reduced with this downpour and there's a little river going through our parking lot. lol I imagine that a quick .30-.40 just fell.

[cloudy72]

Already seeing SBCAPE values in the 1000-1500 J/kg range across western KY with Supercell Composite values near 4 in the LOU area. Shear and Helicity look quite good as well.

[cloudy72]

Also noting a few breaks in the clouds down in the Madison IN-Louisville KY-Hardinsburg KY corridor. Need to watch that closely!

[tron777]

1kmv.gif

Wow... that visible sat sure changed in a hurry. Looking more promising...

[tron777]

Another downpour here... it just keeps re-developing.

[Angelika]

This was just posted on FB:

[tron777]

I went from rain to now partly sunny skies... what an interesting, ever changing system.

[cloudy72]

0.46" is my total thus far

[tron777]

CAPE is not far away now and we should start to see it building over the next few hours.

[tron777]

Seeing more sun now too as the S breeze picks up.

[Bgoney]

Uh oh , Rip Van Winkle ,aka Trev, May actually have to wake up from his slumber if this sunshine persists .

[cloudy72]

Radar estimating over an inch of rain for parts of the Cincy metro so far. As Les mentioned, CAPE is right on our doorstep and the SPC meso forecast in the next 2-4 hours showing over 2,000 J/kg CAPE possible from about I-71 eastward around 2 to 3pm. Supercell composite of 2 to 4 is also knocking on the door and forecast to spread into the same areas this afternoon.

[tron777]

Uh oh , Rip Van Winkle ,aka Trev, May actually have to wake up from his slumber if this sunshine persists .

[tron777]

0.84" for my rainfall total! We really piled it on quick with those last few cells from earlier. CVG checking in with 0.76" We needed the rain here imby so it is welcomed! Let's see how long the sun lasts before new storms fire to our West.

[tron777]

Radar estimating over an inch of rain for parts of the Cincy metro so far. As Les mentioned, CAPE is right on our doorstep and the SPC meso forecast in the next 2-4 hours showing over 2,000 J/kg CAPE possible from about I-71 eastward around 2 to 3pm. Supercell composite of 2 to 4 is also knocking on the door and forecast to spread into the same areas this afternoon.

Mid 60s+ dews are close to moving in as well which helps in the CAPE Dept. Low level lapse rates nearing 7.0C near LOU so we're trying to steepen those up as well.

[tron777]

I'm up to 70 degrees now thanks to some sunshine.

[Bgoney]

.90" in Indian hill.

[snowbo]

.6" here with the morning round

[cloudy72]

Slowly climbing here with some hazy sun trying to peek out - temp is 63.

[cloudy72]

ILN Update:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Initial round of convection, sub-severe and supported by warm
and moist advection, will continue to lift to the northeast
through southwest and central Ohio through the remainder of the
morning/midday hours. Some heavy downpours will occur as these
move through, although no flooding is expected.

We are already seeing signs of clearing/breaks in the clouds
across portions of northern Kentucky and this will translate to
the north into the afternoon hours. Breaks will help boost
instability, with guidance suggesting at least pockets of higher
CAPE/instability, particularly along and east of a tighter
instability gradient that may set up near the I-71 corridor this
afternoon, and supporting organization of convection.

Areas that have seen clearing the longest and destabilize the
soonest will likely see the first signs of convective
initiation early this afternoon, most likely between 12pm and
2pm and within the Tri-state area. Activity initially may be
discrete, but eventually would likely morph into multi-cells or
even somewhat linear/line segment activity later this afternoon.
There may be multiple rounds as well, with the actual cold
front really not making into the CWA until early evening, so
can't rule out convection until the front actually moves
through.

The primary severe weather window looks to be around or shortly
after noon until about 8 pm. Damaging straight line winds will
be the primary threat, however instances of large hail and even
a couple of tornadoes will be possible particularly with
convection that may be discrete. Given the fact that convection
is expected to be progressive, the risk for flooding is
relatively low.

High temperatures will range from the lower 70s north to near 80
further south into northern Kentucky.

[cloudy72]

Pushing 80 out in western KY currently, up to 71 at CVG. Nice large break in clouds moving across SW Indiana and also east of I-71 in Ohio.

[tron777]

CAPE is 1000-1500 J/KG for the Cincy area. If we can get it up to 2000, we'll have something to talk about. Radar is clear minus dying convection in our NW counties and the morning convection exiting CMH Stage Right.

[tron777]

I like seeing the clearing and CU field building over S IN. I would assume we should see storms firing ahead of the front in that area this afternoon. Closer to home, we will see if any discrete cells can get going out ahead of that main line. We will likely see line segments evolving with time and have several rounds as the boys suggest before the front clears after 8-10pm range across the region.

Supercell Comp Index is a 4 over the Tri-state and esp NKY at this time.

[tron777]

EHI values over Northern KY are currently running as: EHI 1KM is a 2 with 3 KM being a 3. Interesting...