April 2022 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

12Z EPS Mean valid for the same time - Yep GFS may not be smoking something.

eps-fast_z500a_us_9.png

[MVWxObserver]

12Z GFS says watch the May 6-9th period for possible Frost! UGH... I wanna plant my crops / flowers!

Happy Frosters Day, Ma Nature Mother!

It's normal but it is getting ridiculous at the same time!

Totally agree bro!

In some ways fickle Ma Nature is like "What About Bob?" in that Bob didn't want to leave either!

[tron777]

Good morning! The best chances for rain look to be tonight into tomorrow morning and again late Sat into Sun morning. Plenty of dry hours in there too for outdoor plans.

[tpweather]

Will be interesting in terms of severe weather. Not expecting a big outbreak and again spring so any day can bring a chance for a storm to get severe. The problem I see is the southern plains though warming up some is still not breaking out into any extended heat and that is what we usually need for May and June to really get into a more widespread severe threat. Another item is rainfall and what has been a trend for the models is to lessen rainfall amounts the closer we get to an event. No doubt some heavier rains to the the west and northwest with these systems but a drier layer seems to be sitting over the area. Does this have to deal with La Nina and maybe as we know during La Nina's we see in the winter there is an area that really hangs on to dry air in the atmosphere. Does this work the same in spring and not really sure since we tend to have a weaken stage at best.

[Bgoney]

Easterlies along equator and either side of dateline expected to continue and ramp up , so the brick wall for the MJO remains in place for the foreseeable future

Screenshot_20220429-085926_Chrome.jpg

[tron777]

The May thread has been created.

[tron777]

La nina should continue to strengthen as discussed and as shown by Bgoney's above post...

For the rest of April a few light sprinkles possible today otherwise tonight into tomorrow morning ahead of the warm front, still looking like our best shot.

[MVWxObserver]

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[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

A few tornadoes likely

Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter likely

Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

A few tornadoes likely

Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible

Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

[MVWxObserver]

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[MVWxObserver]

https://www.whio.com/news/trending/3-un ... U5ISI3GBU/

Some met students killed in a crash in Kay Co OK after a powerful tornado chase in KS.

[MVWxObserver]

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[MVWxObserver]

Received .30" from Sat and Sat night.