Possible Severe Threat Late Wed Evening 3/30/22

[tron777]

ALERT: Red Flag Warning in Effect for the parts of the Metro: SW OH and NKY:

Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Warren-
Hamilton-
138 PM EDT Wed Mar 30 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTO
SOUTHWEST OHIO...

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a Red Flag
Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect
until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zone 071 Warren, Fire Weather
Zone 077 Hamilton, Fire Weather Zone 090 Gallatin, Fire
Weather Zone 091 Boone, Fire Weather Zone 092 Kenton, Fire
Weather Zone 093 Campbell, Fire Weather Zone 094 Owen, Fire
Weather Zone 095 Grant and Fire Weather Zone 096 Pendleton.

* WINDS...South 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 25 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly.
Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Avoid burning. Conditions are favorable for rapid fire growth.

[tron777]

Owen Electric reporting 27 houses without power in my neighborhood. Half of my street is out and a few others towards the front of the neighborhood. I am on a different grid that feeds the back half of the neighborhood so my power is still in for now. Fingers crossed...

[tron777]

I hit 80 now at 79. CVG did also now at 78 due to increasing clouds. Due is now down to 37 at CVG. Wondering when the showers come can a wet microburst occur? Any thoughts folks?

[tron777]

I keep refreshing Owen's page and the outages continue to grow. Would assume the same for Duke customers as well in our region. At least it is warm right now.

[cloudy72]

My DP down to 36 here with temp of 78. I think wet microbursts are definitely possible Les. HRRR is quite concerning for later tonight with widespread 50-60 mph gusts after 10 pm. And lets hope the 3km NAM and GFS are off their rockers......my goodness 60-70+ gusts showing on here later tonight.

[tron777]

My DP down to 36 here with temp of 78. I think wet microbursts are definitely possible Les. HRRR is quite concerning for later tonight with widespread 50-60 mph gusts after 10 pm. And lets hope the 3km NAM and GFS are off their rockers......my goodness 60-70+ gusts showing on here later tonight.

Thanks Mike for looking into that. I was seeing a concerning signal myself and wanted a second opinion. The drop in dews is what caught my eye to begin with.

[cloudy72]

Wonder if ILN is considering an upgrade to High Wind Warning for (at least) western areas? Euro is the most reasonable with 45-50 mph gusts which is well covered in the advisory so that may be why no trigger yet.

[tron777]

From the boys:

Dangerous fire weather conditions for another 3 or 4 hours
until about 8 or 9 PM, which is discussed in the fire weather
section below.

Concern/impacts overnight will be tied to winds - both
convectively driven and non-convectively driven. As low pressure
in central Illinois begins to rapidly deepen owing to parent
shortwave trough going negative tilt, mass response will be
significant in the lower Ohio Valley this evening with the
formation of a potent QLCS off to the west/southwest. There is
considerable uncertainty on the maintenance/structure of this
convective system into the CWA around midnight. HRRR runs...in
addition to 30.12Z NSSL-WRF have been adamant that the structure
of this system will remain intact into at least the CVG Tri-
State, and even further east across northern Kentucky and far
southern Ohio before weakening as it approaches the Scioto
Valley. Other CAMS, including the FV3-WRF and NAM-3km are much
less bullish, and either trend the the QLCS southward into more
of Kentucky, or diminish it as it enters the Tri-State. Given
the dynamics of the synoptic pattern, I am apt to believe a
system with some decent structure/integrity making its way into
the southwest half of the CWA in the 12A-3A timerange. Given
this will be coincident with a 50-60kt 925mb low level jet,
transport of damaging gusts a distinct possibility with the
strongest line segments during the overnight hours. And given
extreme low level shear/SRH - even in the absence of lightning -
could not rule out QLCS mesovortex generation and a brief/weak
tornado - chances of this greatest south of the Ohio River.

The other concern is non-convective wind potential. As the
central Illinois low moves to Michigan and deepens considerably
to a sub 980mb cyclone, pressure falls and mass response will
increase dramatically just ahead of the convective line. Low
level jet at 850mb surges past 80kts, and dry sub-cloud layers
suggest a somewhat favorable lapse rate that could aid in some
of this getting to the surface outside of showers. Confidence in
this is not high, but there is considerable upside/potential if
the lowest 1km lapse rate remains favorable for mixing in the
overnight. If it does...and some NWP forecast soundings suggest
it will (HRRR/GFS, etc) there could be some strong (approaching
50kt) wind gusts both immediately ahead of the showers, and
immediately in their wake.

[MVWxObserver]

Currently 73 here in G'ville with a gust of 30 mph. I saw during the wx segment on WDTN2 in the past hour where it was 75 here so looks like ILN nailed it for my area as that was their progged high.

According to the 4:58 PM climate report DAY reached 80 so will see if that still verifies tomorrow morning.

[Bgoney]

Warm but definitely not a nice day to be outside. I feel like when you've been wind battered riding in a boat all day long, not fun

[MVWxObserver]

I have cousins on mom's side of the family in the southwest zone of IN.

* Primary threats include...

A few tornadoes likely

Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely

[MVWxObserver]

Prayerfully some rain from this system can help firefighters get the upper hand on a wildfire between Pigeon Forge and Gatlinburg. They could use much needed rainfall but just not the Slight risk severe t-storms wise.

I have a cousin and his wife from Monroe, OH who currently are at their timeshare in G'burg this week.

UPDATE: The wildfire is in an area called Wears Valley and thankfully my cousin and his wife are not anywhere near it. Prayers and thoughts with those affected in Wears Valley.

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

A tornado or two possible

[theextremeone]

Been super windy all day, small twigs breaking off, pine needles flying around but it's been crazy warm

[tron777]

Thanks for guys for covering things this afternoon and evening. Appreciate it! Been super busy painting and such after work. Bathroom remodel doesn't have too much more to go now. Trim painted, just needs to be cut and put up. Then it can be decorated and all of that junk.

80 here today still 76. CVG also hit 80, currently sitting at 77. We are still gusting to 37 right now. Dew low at 38. Folks, I like what Mike said earlier. I am surprised that we don't have a high wind warning. I am concerned about a deepening surface low and the trough going negative tilt tonight. Low is 992 MB over ILL and deepening. It is supposed to deepen into the 970s over the UP in time so wow! We've got a big storm to deal with and a lot of wind energy!

Check out the dews now... little moisture to work with as you can see. I kind of question the rainfall amounts with this system as in we're not going to see a ton of it at all. Winds making it to the surface without showers is of the utmost concern with the dry air really allowing for some great mixings to occur today.

ttd_sf.gif

925 MB winds tonight have the potential to mix down to the surface in any showers we do get. Some guidance has 60 knot winds above our heads so some minor damage and power outages are possible tonight. We've already seen some earlier today across the region. RAP model at 925 shown below.

RAP925.png

Finally... a busy radar tonight. As of this post, the cells you see over Eastern ILL getting into Western IN and Western KY are warned for severe wind gusts in excess of 70 mph!

RADAR.gif

[MVWxObserver]

Currently 70 here in G'ville and gusts between 45-50+ mph. Lights have flickered.

High Wind Warning in effect until 6 AM!

[MVWxObserver]

----

[MVWxObserver]

2159 60 2 SE HEATH MCCRACKEN KY 3707 8877 (PAH)

2210 UNK BENTON MARSHALL KY 3685 8836 SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN THE BENTON AREA. (PAH)

2210 UNK 6 ESE REIDLAND MARSHALL KY 3697 8843 POWER POLE DOWN AT INTERSECTION OF MT. MARIAH RD AND US68 WEST. (PAH)

2210 UNK KEVIL BALLARD KY 3709 8888 TREES DOWN IN KEVIL. (PAH)

2225 UNK 2 SSE PADUCAH MCCRACKEN KY 3704 8862 APPROXIMATELY 975 CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER IN PADUCAH. (PAH)

2255 UNK 7 NW HAMLIN CALLOWAY KY 3667 8817 TREES DOWN ON FAXON ROAD. (PAH)

2305 UNK 2 NE LYNN GROVE CALLOWAY KY 3661 8841 CORRECTS PREVIOUS TSTM WND DMG REPORT FROM 2 NE LYNN GROVE. TREES DOWN ON THURMAN ROAD. (PAH)

2312 UNK 3 ESE MURRAY CALLOWAY KY 3660 8827 TREES DOWN ON OLD SALEM ROAD. (PAH)

2332 75 1 WNW GRACEY TRIGG KY 3688 8767 (PAH)

2340 73 1 ENE BRECKINRIDGE CENT UNION KY 3769 8784 MESONET STATION FRNY MORGANFIELD KY 4 E. (PAH)

2348 UNK 2 SSE MADISONVILLE HOPKINS KY 3731 8750 LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN ... HIGH WINDS. (PAH)

2352 UNK 5 NW CORYDON HENDERSON KY 3779 8776 TREE BLOCKING ROAD. (PAH)

0010 UNK 3 W OWENSBORO DAVIESS KY 3775 8718 TREE DOWN ALONG HWY 56. (PAH)

0015 UNK HENDERSON HENDERSON KY 3782 8759 2100 CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER IN HENDERSON COUNTY. (PAH)

0017 UNK ROCKPORT SPENCER IN 3789 8705 TREE DOWN ON POWER LINE. (PAH)

0025 UNK 2 E CHRISNEY SPENCER IN 3802 8700 3 UTILITY POLES SNAPPED NEAR 900 NORTH AND ORCHARD RD. (PAH)

0035 UNK 1 S FERDINAND DUBOIS IN 3822 8686 POWER LINE DOWN AT 505 MARYLAND STREET. (LMK)

0036 UNK 1 N FERDINAND DUBOIS IN 3824 8686 A POWER LINE DOWN AT 2410 WILLOW LANE. (LMK)

0104 UNK 1 NNE FORT CAMPBELL NOR CHRISTIAN KY 3666 8746 LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN. (PAH)

[cloudy72]

So it looks like a few areas did in fact see high wind criteria last night - Lunken 69 mph, Columbus 58 mph, and a warning was issued for a few hours. Fortunately things are starting to calm down now and power outages don't seem too extreme ATM.

[tron777]

I never lost power, thank good ness but the outages came close to me lol Lots of limbs and branches down here per the usual so will have to clean up before I can even mow. But I have to get the mowers read first. I am behind this spring lol

[cloudy72]

Not sure if it's been shared on here, but this is a nice site to check power outage stats across the USA:

https://poweroutage.us/

Kentucky as of 8:23 has about 18,800 outages. Michigan leads the way with 36,000+

[tron777]

Event total here is about 0.12" for rain. Most around 7:30 with the frontal passage.

[cloudy72]

My event total....0.02" LOL It was 76 at midnight and now down to 52 and dropping.

[tron777]

50 at CVG an falling. Winds still gusting to around 30 mph at times.

[winterstormjoe]

Had some roof damage to my garage from a big tree limb that fell. Also lots of tree debris laying in my back yard from those heavy winds last night. Hopefully we're done with these winds for quite a while!