Winters Last Stand - March 11-12, 2022

[tron777]

Euro is like the NAM, UKMET... an inch at best at CVG. It's major SE and weak. The GFS, GEFS, CMC, RGEM are my 2" call.

[tpweather]

Euro is like the NAM, UKMET... an inch at best at CVG. It's major SE and weak. The GFS, GEFS, CMC, RGEM are my 2" call.

Les, those are true at CVG. There is a bigger difference in say the Nam and Euro in say Lexington as the Nam wants to keep the low west of the apps longer where the Euro sends it to the coast quickly.

[BookNerdCarp]

I just got a message saying Winter Storm Quinlan is headed to my area....good grief!

[tron777]

I just got a message saying Winter Storm Quinlan is headed to my area....good grief!

What kind of a name is that? Good grief!

[MJSun]

I just got a message saying Winter Storm Quinlan is headed to my area....good grief!

I got one from the cable company.

So I am slated to go up to Columbus on Sunday 11am for an event at 2pm for work and then back. Will this get in the way? (dear lord I would LOVE for this to cancel the event)

[MJSun]

I just got a message saying Winter Storm Quinlan is headed to my area....good grief!

What kind of a name is that? Good grief!

Next is Winter Storm Aidan/Treyson/Greyson/Payton/Hayden

[tron777]

I just got a message saying Winter Storm Quinlan is headed to my area....good grief!

I got one from the cable company.

So I am slated to go up to Columbus on Sunday 11am for an event at 2pm for work and then back. Will this get in the way? (dear lord I would LOVE for this to cancel the event)

It is a Fri night / early Sat event. Sunday is fine.

[tron777]

No change from the 15Z SREF. 2.3" at CVG around 3" Columbus. Same story it's been painting.

[tron777]

18Z HRRR has the best snows falling SE of I71. Lake Effect snow showers also esp north and NW of Cincy for midday into early afternoon Sat.

[tpweather]

No change from the 15Z SREF. 2.3" at CVG around 3" Columbus. Same story it's been painting.

Good sign the amounts stayed the same. Sometimes once they start going south it never ends. So hopefully that will hold and even sometimes once you get the bottom amounts can creep up slowly and since its still 24 hours out its possible. So Les your forecast still looks great

[Bgoney]

Some waffling in the 12z suite for sure but not enough to go away from the 1-3" range for AVland.

[tron777]

18Z NAM not as bad as the 12Z NAM was. Took a bump back NW. QPF way better! 0.26" so back to normal there.

Also, LOU has an advisory out for 1-3" for Indy counties and LOU Metro. Watch still out for Central KY and LEX for 3-5". I would imagine our guys to do the advisory for 1-3" for the I-71 corridor counties at the very least, and not sure if they will upgrade watch to warning, or leave it as is then see the 0Z guidance tonight, like LOU is doing.

[tron777]

Some waffling in the 12z suite for sure but not enough to go away from the 1-3" range for AVland.

Letting it ride here!

[tron777]

No change from the 15Z SREF. 2.3" at CVG around 3" Columbus. Same story it's been painting.

Good sign the amounts stayed the same. Sometimes once they start going south it never ends. So hopefully that will hold and even sometimes once you get the bottom amounts can creep up slowly and since its still 24 hours out its possible. So Les your forecast still looks great

Everyone's call is basically the same on here lol I think the forum forecast looks good.

[tron777]

SPC Mesopage has a 1002 MB low in SC New Mexico dropping SE towards Texas and our PV Lobe is 1008 MB over S. Manitoba dropping SSE into Northern North Dakota in time. So those are the two players on the field we are watching.

Surface.gif

Water Vapor Loop:

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/c ... &length=24

[tron777]

18Z 3KM NAM has a 3" bullseye on my hood 2.3" for CVG

[tron777]

As of 3:35pm, the watch is still in effect from the boys. Have not seen any changes as of yet.

EDIT: They have 1-3" in my forecast now but they have not yet issued an advisory. Probably are waiting on 0Z to make sure eastward bleeding has stopped.

[tpweather]

As of 3:35pm, the watch is still in effect from the boys. Have not seen any changes as of yet.

EDIT: They have 1-3" in my forecast now but they have not yet issued an advisory. Probably are waiting on 0Z to make sure eastward bleeding has stopped.

Les my guess they will issue with the next update which is usually in the 6p-7p time. Funny I saw the Indy forecast and they wrote the road temps were 70 degrees but heading back to the 40's on Friday. That must be a typing area because I can't believe the road temp is 70.

[MJSun]

I just got a message saying Winter Storm Quinlan is headed to my area....good grief!

I got one from the cable company.

So I am slated to go up to Columbus on Sunday 11am for an event at 2pm for work and then back. Will this get in the way? (dear lord I would LOVE for this to cancel the event)

It is a Fri night / early Sat event. Sunday is fine.

DAMMIT!!

[tron777]

From the boys:

Low-levels continue to saturate Friday morning from west to
east. There will be a stream of light pcpn that is forced along
a shortwave trough across our west-central OH and southeastern
IN counties beginning Friday morning. Snow is favored to be the
primary p-type, but as warmer air undercuts the colder air
aloft, a transition to light rain will become favored. The
thicker cloud layer across our northwest will limit insolation
and will keep temperatures locked in the mid to upper 30s during
the day. This may ultimately keep any falling hydrometeors as
snow in our extreme northwest counties such as Mercer/Auglaize.
Accumulating snow is thus favored for these northeastern
counties during the daytime, but totals are expected to remain
under an inch.

Conditions are favored to remain drier through most of the day
for locations east of I-71, but a few scattered rain showers may
traverse more of our counties by the late afternoon and early
evening hours. There will be a large temperature gradient
across our CWA. Highs may reach 60 degrees across the lower
Scioto Valley and portions of northern KY, gradually decreasing
into the upper 30s in our west-central OH counties.

Mean trough begins to move through our CWA Friday night with a
surface cold front gradually working its way through. This will
be the period when most of the accumulating snow is expected.
Overall, snow totals haven`t changed drastically since last
night, but we are trending towards seeing some lower totals
northwest of I-71. Generally thinking that 1-3" of snow are
favored for our three major metro areas (Columbus, Dayton &
Cincinnati), with the Columbus area favored to be on the higher
end of this range. Still enough uncertainty with the track of
the low to upgrade our current Winter Storm Watch. Additionally,
with current totals just on the threshold of Warning criteria
in our Watch area, have held off making any changes in headlines
for now. Regardless, still expecting widespread travel impacts
with majority of snow occurring overnight and sticking to
pavement surfaces. Initially, snow may have trouble sticking SE
of I-71, but heavier rates and dynamic cooling should quickly
overcome this.

Lingering snow across our southeast should taper off through late
morning as the main system continues to shift off to the northeast.
However, as the mid level trough axis swings east across our area
through the afternoon, expect to see some isolated to scattered
snow shower development across much of our area as we head
through late morning and into the afternoon. This will also likely
be enhanced to some degree by a favorable low level fetch off of
Lake Michigan. This could lead to some additional minor snow
accumulations across much of the area into Saturday afternoon. In
the continued good low level CAA, highs on Saturday will only be in
the mid to upper 20s. It will also be brisk with northwest winds
gusting to around 30 mph along with some single digit wind chill
readings. Any remaining snow showers should taper off fairly quickly
heading into Saturday evening as the trough axis shifts east and the
low level flow begins to back around to the west.

[tron777]

18Z RGEM has 1" NW to 3" SE, perfect!

[tron777]

18Z GFS has 1-2" for many... 3" possible SE of I-71 and 4" extreme SE.

[tron777]

18Z GFS 0.23" QPF at CVG.

[tpweather]

Mid-March and all the winter weather advisories in the south. What a nice shot of cold air and will be gone by Monday.

[tron777]

No change from the 18Z GEFS. 1" NW to 4" SE That has been the call for days and days and days and days... Let 'er rip, tator chip