Winters Last Stand - March 11-12, 2022

[tron777]

I think the models are at least starting to converge on the set up now for Fri and Sat. This system might be Winter's Last Stand. A low tracks to our NW dragging a cold front through the area as we spike towards 60. Rain breaks out. with the front. Front passes then a secondary low comes up throwing moisture back into the cold air with a band of deformation snowfall Fri night and Sat morning. Light accumulations look possible. Moderate accumulations not out of reach should we get the correct phasing and low track.

Timing, degree of phasing and surface low track are all up for grabs. But rain to snow is looking more possible in my opinion as time goes on. Discuss!

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les. If only we had a nice negative NAO lol. I believe this is going to be an explosive storm but saying that where does this one explode. At the moment that will probably be east of us and expecting the northeast to probably get their biggest storm of the season. So the system will start to strengthen later Friday but will the timing be on our side to get some of the strengthening. If it does start to get stronger a little earlier it is one of those case where it can put down a quick amount of heavy wet snow in a short period. Moisture this time of year is usually not a problem but like we have talked about all season getting this system to slow down is one reason we are talking about a short period of time to get snow falling.

[tron777]

Good morning Tim! The 0Z GFS made a significant jump towards a more phased system. CMC and Euro aren't quite as wrapped up with the low due to only getting a partial phase. 6Z GFS went back to the partial idea too. Whether we succeed or fail with this system the set up is intriguing and one to watch. It is all about timing and it truly is a thread the needle type of event since we don't have the -NAO. The timing of the phase has to be correct ala the 0Z GFS to get a nice storm out of it.

[tpweather]

Hey Les, I expect this system to phase but where is always the question. March can bring some of the bigger storms as spring is trying to bully its way north and winter will try and hang on. This is a very nice cold front for early March with below zero temps in the great lakes area. My guess models will get a better handle on this system once today's system is out of the way.

[Snowbrain2]

Up in northern Ohio we also have the lake to add into the puzzle. Lake Erie has plenty of open ice, so LES as well as lake enhancement to consider.
The key for ALL is how far east does the cold front proceed as the secondary low moves NE along front and possibly bombs out.

[tpweather]

Up in northern Ohio we also have the lake to add into the puzzle. Lake Erie has plenty of open ice, so LES as well as lake enhancement to consider.
The key for ALL is how far east does the cold front proceed as the secondary low moves NE along front and possibly bombs out.

I agree and the problem for LES has been the same problem that we have and that is everything moves so fast so you only get a certain amount of hours where the winds are good for the LES. That is why having some blocking is key in getting a longer period of winter weather though you can still get a strong storm but how long it lasts is in part due to little or no blocking.

[cloudy72]

May not be winter's last stand - GFS throwing us a bone around the 21st

[tron777]

Up in northern Ohio we also have the lake to add into the puzzle. Lake Erie has plenty of open ice, so LES as well as lake enhancement to consider.
The key for ALL is how far east does the cold front proceed as the secondary low moves NE along front and possibly bombs out.

I agree and the problem for LES has been the same problem that we have and that is everything moves so fast so you only get a certain amount of hours where the winds are good for the LES. That is why having some blocking is key in getting a longer period of winter weather though you can still get a strong storm but how long it lasts is in part due to little or no blocking.

Great Post Jeff... I echo Tim's thoughts. Since we have no blocking, we've got to have the right timing pf the phase and correct position of the cold front along the Apps.

[tron777]

May not be winter's last stand - GFS throwing us a bone around the 21st

I would gladly make a Part 2 Thread for that one.

[tron777]

SnowTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2022/03/07/snowta ... update-37/

[tron777]

12Z GFS is back to the late phase again and we just get clipped. GEFS is stronger, a better phase, and well NW of the OP. Per the GEFS, a snow storm is very much in play. GEFS Mean has 2-3" for the area. We'll take it!

12Z CMC nudged east / weaker with its 12Z run vs 0Z. 12Z UKIE is way SE of most guidance.

[tron777]

12Z Euro so far is coming in slower but the eventual outcome is still weaker / SE to my surprise. It is slower though on this run and still good for a 1-3" event at CVG. It'll be a couple more days before we'll know the exact track of this thing and how strong it gets.

[tpweather]

Les its timing as we know. Still believe this has the potential to be a very strong storm and the phasing will happen. I do believe in the local area we will be the start of the phasing so we only get so many hours where winter weather will affect us. This time of year precip is higher than you see in mid-winter so that is not the problem. Like models have been hinting at a quick 1-3 seems like a really good forecast. If we can get the system to slow down just 4-6 hours you could get a 3-5 inch snowfall. Folks to the east of us though should be ready for a nice hit. I know models are moving this system quickly and probably correct but this time of year the amounts can add up quickly in just a few hours. Of course no matter how much snow we get it will be gone by Monday at the latest.

[tron777]

Good afternoon Tim... great post and I like those numbers. Since we have no -NAO amounts won't be excessive due to speed, but a light to moderate event is absolutely on the table.

[tron777]

18Z GFS is a bump back to the NW - Moderate event. Wow!

[tpweather]

18Z GFS is a bump back to the NW - Moderate event. Wow!

Okay Les I am good with the latest gfs run. Can you make sure that does not change over the next 4 days.

[tron777]

18Z GFS is a bump back to the NW - Moderate event. Wow!

Okay Les I am good with the latest gfs run. Can you make sure that does not change over the next 4 days.

GEFS has 2-3"over the area. Event is worth watching in my opinion. If the trough sharpens up fast enough and we get a fast phase, we'll get a nice event. If not, we'll get scraped.

[tron777]

A quick mention from the boys:

A potent weather system is coming into better focus for Friday and Friday night. A strong cold front and wave of low pressure driven by a sharpening upper trough, tapping a plume of deep moisture originating far to the southwest, is forecast to provide rain Friday, changing to snow Friday night as winds shift to north behind the front. Accumulating snow appears to be likely by the time the system exits east on Saturday morning.

[tpweather]

If we get a snow cover how cold will the temp go on Saturday night/Sunday morning. Teens for sure and could we get an upper single digit. Also during the day on Saturday expect wind chills to be in the teens most of the day.

[tron777]

If we get a snow cover how cold will the temp go on Saturday night/Sunday morning. Teens for sure and could we get an upper single digit. Also during the day on Saturday expect wind chills to be in the teens most of the day.

My early thoughts are spiking to 60 on Friday. Rain late changing to snow as temps plummet Fri night. Should be below freezing after midnight Fri night and highs in the mid to upper 20s Sat. Lows Sun morning around 15. Going to wait on lowering until we see where the data locks in where the best snows fall. Sunday highs in the U30s to near 40. It is March after all lol

[tpweather]

Hey Les, I know we warm up on Friday but not sure how high we go. I am going with 55 because of increasing cloud cover. I agree the temperature change Friday night will be quick and dropping 20 plus degrees in 2-3 hours is likely plus the winds will pick up as well. Still to early for snow accumulation but the timing at night into the early morning should help in getting some accumulation. At this point if I had to make a forecast of snow I would go 1-3 inches but a 30p/c chance that amounts may be higher.

[Bgoney]

Don't have anything to add to the great posts yesterday for Fri/Sat chances for snow. As mentioned, timing is everything. Margin for err is very small for cvgland, but too our SE they have a little more room to work with , so definitely favoring eastern Ky/SE ohio

[tron777]

I like 1-4" from NW to SE across the area with this one. An inch in our NW counties with up to 4" possible in the SE. That would put CVG around 2". Most of the data looks to be going in this direction. I can adjust up or down later but I am pretty much in agreement with Tim on amounts right now with this system.

[tron777]

Latest thinking from the boys:

A rather significant pattern shift will occur toward the end of
the workweek and into the upcoming weekend, with high
confidence in a return to much colder/unseasonably cold
conditions for this weekend. How we arrive at that pattern
change still remains somewhat in question as two initially-
distinct systems, one across the Rio Grande Valley and the other
in the upper Midwest, phase into a deepening trof developing
into the eastern CONUS by Friday night/Saturday. How that
happens, and how quickly the phasing occurs, and where it
occurs, still remains to be seen, with implications on coverage
and type of pcpn across the OH Vly late Friday into Friday
night. It appears probable, at this juncture, that pcpn should
start off as some rain Friday into early Friday night as large
scale forcing/ascent increases progressively from the west.
Still to be determined at this point, among other things, will
be the longitudinal position of the mid/upper level trof and
timing questions on phasing, with obvious implications on the
associated wind and thermal fields as we progress into Friday
evening. It seems reasonable to expect the H8 trof to pivot E
through the ILN Friday evening, with the slow progression of the
initially ill-defined sfc boundary E during the daytime period.
Once the better forcing and mid/upper level support arrives by
Friday evening , expect to see a tightening of the LL thermal
fields, indicative of frontogenetic processes, promoting further
expansion of ascent as the LL front shifts E. There are some
important timing differences to still be worked out here, but
strictly from an ensemble and probabilistic approach, there
remains a sufficient signal for a broad area of rain to mix
with, and eventually change to, snow Friday evening into Friday
night as the digging as the overall mid/upper level system
quickly phases. There are intricacies in this process that quite
frankly may not be resolved by global guidance for several more
days due to the sensitivity of a system`s phase, depth,
magnitude, positioning, etc. and correlation of those processes
to the sensible weather and potential impacts locally. For now,
it does seem probable that pcpn will change to at least a brief
period of snow for a good portion of the ILN FA Friday night as
much colder air rushes in from the west, with some
accumulations possible. The signal is strong and persistent
enough to start broad-brush mention in the HWO.

One thing that is a bit more confident in nature is the signal
for an anomalously cold airmass set to settle into the OH Vly
Saturday into Saturday night. The height and thermal anomalies
are very impressive, even on the more muted ensemble guidance.
For example, GEFS mean H8 temps on Saturday afternoon have
anywhere from around -16C to -18C, which would be on the very
edge/record of the SPC daily sounding climatology spectrum for
KILN for the date. The overall pattern and persistent signal
regarding the height and temp anomalies was enough of a nudge to
go a solid 4-5 degrees below NBM blended guidance for highs on
Saturday, especially with the expectation for a few flurries and
snow showers as well. This will be aided by the pivoting of a
very impressive PV anomaly into the central/eastern OH Vly
during the daytime period, with steepening low level lapse
rates, breezy conditions, and plenty of moisture availability to
still work with.

Temps on Saturday may only rebound several degrees from morning
lows, topping out in the lower/mid 20s during the afternoon. An
even colder night is on tap Saturday night as temps dip into
the teens area-wide. There are some spots that could potentially
be a bit colder, depending on how much and where a fresh snow
pack /could/ be.

[tron777]

SnowTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2022/03/08/snowta ... update-38/