March 2022 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

12Z Euro offers up another interesting possibility for around the 3/12 period. A little rain to snow with a secondary low working up along the front. This is a solution that can pay off if it works out right.

[tron777]

80 and bright sunshine with a nice light breeze. Will be grilling this evening with a few adult beverages. Little cooler on Friday but then over the weekend beautiful weather returns.

Nice! Mostly cloudy and 43 as of 2pm at CVG here. That 70 this weekend is going to feel good though!

[tpweather]

12Z Euro offers up another interesting possibility for around the 3/12 period. A little rain to snow with a secondary low working up along the front. This is a solution that can pay off if it works out right.

Les lots of energy late next week and my guess nowhere close to what will happen. Rather strong pieces of energy as well.

[tron777]

12Z Euro offers up another interesting possibility for around the 3/12 period. A little rain to snow with a secondary low working up along the front. This is a solution that can pay off if it works out right.

Les lots of energy late next week and my guess nowhere close to what will happen. Rather strong pieces of energy as well.

I hope the trough goes negative tilt too like the guidance is showing. That should get some severe wx going in the warm sector and a nice deform band of snow on the NW side. That is the look I want to see. Where do we fit in remains to be seen but currently, the smart money is rain to snow and that is about as good as an early call can get this far out. We're talking next weekend so tons and tons of time to keep our eyes peeled for sure.

[BookNerdCarp]

7 years ago.....

[tron777]

7 years ago.....

That was a good one! Feb and Mar of 2015 were both decent for us if I recall.

[tron777]

78 is the record for Saturday set back in 1983. We will fall short IMO but 72-75 is doable!

[tron777]

18Z GFS brings in 3.15" at CVG for Sun and Monday. Rain ends as flakes on Tues for a lot of folks North of Cincinnati. Then for the bigger system we're watching around the 12th, the GFS shows a wave along an arctic front with some snow so no phase on 3/11. Man... if we can get a phase with this one, it'll be a big storm regardless of the precip type we get. It's going to be interesting to watch. Models will go from showing a big one to showing not much at all in the coming days, as we try and sort everything out. The pattern is ripe as we switch from warm to cold IMO for a bigger system to develop for 3/11-3/12. We shall see as usual!

EDIT: The model even has a little bonus clipper the night of the 12th lol

[tron777]

Good evening all...

I'd like to talk about the upcoming cold shot for a moment. I like a 3-5 day cold snap coming up around the 11th or 12th. Could it stay longer? MJO currently is still in the neutral circle as of 3/1 and has yet to show any signs of coming out. Most of the guidance I've seen keeps it there unless the GEFS is right. Then it comes out and loops through Phases 2 and 3 which is cold for March. Outside of that small possibility, I don't think the MJO is driving the pattern. It'll be Pacific driven with a -EPO so we'll have to see how long it is going to last. Looks like it'll be an active period too with a -PNA. NAO is going to remain positive but the AO could briefly go weakly negative to help get the cold more into our region so that is worth keeping an eye on.

Snow chances, which is what most folks are concerned about anyway looks like this:

3/8 - Tues - Behind the big rain maker some mood flakes or snow showers possible esp N of town / I-70 Crew
3/11-3/12: One big storm offering rain to snow? Snow along an arctic boundary? A bonus clipper? We have several possibilities and chances within this window.

Any potential snow behind this period is unknown at this time since we'll have to wait and see how intense it is and how much it sticks around. It is March but -20 850s and 500 MB heights in the 515-525 range, will still get you in the teens and 20s and that is what's currently being shown for a day or two behind the possible big storm.

[tron777]

A couple of nice days coming up (although breezy on Sat) before we get drenched. Light rain Sunday with the better chances on Monday. Some of you will be dry after Sunday morning depending on how far south the front gets. Sun afternoon maybe 70 and awesome for some. We will watch that. 2-3" of rain looks good for most folks. I am upping my call to that range. Guidance seems to be locked in on those amounts. We end as I said last night with some flurries north of town on Tues.

Models are battling on how to handle March 8-9th then the possible stronger storm on the 11-12th. Maybe even a bonus clipper after that? Our plates are full. T-storms, to hvy rain to snow we are tracking it all folks in the next couple of weeks!

Are you ready?

[tron777]

Euro's solution has been steady the last couple of runs for 3/11-3/12. Front comes in and a secondary low tracks along it and we get snow on the back side. QPF amounts have been ranging in the 0.20-0.40" range with 20s for temps. I like it, I like it!

[tron777]

29 here this morning, 30 at CVG. Airmass must be dry, no frost here not even on rooftops.

[tpweather]

Euro's solution has been steady the last couple of runs for 3/11-3/12. Front comes in and a secondary low tracks along it and we get snow on the back side. QPF amounts have been ranging in the 0.20-0.40" range with 20s for temps. I like it, I like it!

Good Morning Les. 82 yesterday but once the sun went down it got cool quickly with the low dew points. Was planning to make the trip home on the 12th but depending on the weekend system may need to postpone a day or so. Going to be a big shock to the system when I get up there after enjoying mid-spring like weather. Still believe late next week more changes coming and the energy floating around is rather strong and like you mentioned all types of weather is possible. Concerning this weekend and early next week on rain totals. I am going 1-2 inches but again some higher totals are likely but exact placement is not so easy to locate. If someone gets in the way of the train totals can really add up quickly.

[tron777]

Euro's solution has been steady the last couple of runs for 3/11-3/12. Front comes in and a secondary low tracks along it and we get snow on the back side. QPF amounts have been ranging in the 0.20-0.40" range with 20s for temps. I like it, I like it!

Good Morning Les. 82 yesterday but once the sun went down it got cool quickly with the low dew points. Was planning to make the trip home on the 12th but depending on the weekend system may need to postpone a day or so. Going to be a big shock to the system when I get up there after enjoying mid-spring like weather. Still believe late next week more changes coming and the energy floating around is rather strong and like you mentioned all types of weather is possible. Concerning this weekend and early next week on rain totals. I am going 1-2 inches but again some higher totals are likely but exact placement is not so easy to locate. If someone gets in the way of the train totals can really add up quickly.

Good morning Tim! Agree... wherever the front stalls and you get hit by both periods of rain (as the front stalls then lifts slowly north, that zone... 2-3" plus of rain looks really good. I think we are fair game. Models have had it north, over, and a bit south of us at times. Take a blend and it's our area.

[cloudy72]

Good evening all...

I'd like to talk about the upcoming cold shot for a moment. I like a 3-5 day cold snap coming up around the 11th or 12th. Could it stay longer? MJO currently is still in the neutral circle as of 3/1 and has yet to show any signs of coming out. Most of the guidance I've seen keeps it there unless the GEFS is right. Then it comes out and loops through Phases 2 and 3 which is cold for March. Outside of that small possibility, I don't think the MJO is driving the pattern. It'll be Pacific driven with a -EPO so we'll have to see how long it is going to last. Looks like it'll be an active period too with a -PNA. NAO is going to remain positive but the AO could briefly go weakly negative to help get the cold more into our region so that is worth keeping an eye on.

Snow chances, which is what most folks are concerned about anyway looks like this:

3/8 - Tues - Behind the big rain maker some mood flakes or snow showers possible esp N of town / I-70 Crew
3/11-3/12: One big storm offering rain to snow? Snow along an arctic boundary? A bonus clipper? We have several possibilities and chances within this window.

Any potential snow behind this period is unknown at this time since we'll have to wait and see how intense it is and how much it sticks around. It is March but -20 850s and 500 MB heights in the 515-525 range, will still get you in the teens and 20s and that is what's currently being shown for a day or two behind the possible big storm.

Hey Les - I think this is a great post you made and agree with your thoughts. Definitely have lots to watch after this quiet week we have had. Low here was 27 this morning.

[tron777]

Thanks Mike! The first half of March looks to offer up a little something for everyone in terms of weather and type.

[tron777]

12Z NAM only has 0.14" for Sun in the morning then we're good until Sun night and Monday. Wow... it's backed way off on rain. Only about a half inch event total at CVG.

[tpweather]

12Z NAM only has 0.14" for Sun in the morning then we're good until Sun night and Monday. Wow... it's backed way off on rain. Only about a half inch event total at CVG.

Nam went north and has been the furthest north with the heaviest rains. Showing the heavy rains even north of Indy. Lets see how the gfs and euro pan out and that is why the placement of heavy rain is so hard to predict 48 hours or longer out.

[tpweather]

GFS still on board for the heavy rain in the local area. Model wars this weekend lol

[tron777]

Still has 2" of rain at CVG. Down from 3" plus so that is at least some good news.

[tron777]

GFS / CMC aren't phasing the energy for the 11th-12th but models won't have that figured out yet this far away. I favor it. The pattern favors it. We'll just have to wait and see if mother nature favors it. GEFS had a handful of snowy solutions in there on this afternoons run.

[tron777]

We'll see what the Euro does later, but so far, I like its consistency with the two low idea and the second one bringing us snow in the cold air on the backside of the front. That theme we have seen several times this winter. With the strength of this trough, should the energy time itself out right, I would also suspect QPF to go up too.

[tron777]

Euro has 0.12" Sun morning so the theme on most models now anyway is to reduce the rain for Sunday and keep it early, mainly in the morning. I think we will see some dry hours in the afternoon.

[tron777]

12Z Euro is down to 1.7" at CVG event total so it's good seeing that come down a bit. Model also shifting north with the best rains today. This also seems to be a trend on guidance.

[tron777]

The two low idea is still somewhat there but no phasing of the energy on today's run no thus, no big storm.