February 2022 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

WOW , there is a lot going on next week. Quite the battle between the SE ridge and Arctic high

Euro is much colder on this run with a big arctic high pressing in. Past runs have been warmer / wet like the GFS.

[tpweather]

WOW , there is a lot going on next week. Quite the battle between the SE ridge and Arctic high

Euro is much colder on this run with a big arctic high pressing in. Past runs have been warmer / wet like the GFS.

Les with the snow and cold still dominating western and central Canada and when the pna just stays neutral or a little positive we can get these cold spells to drop rather far south. Once you get into the USA the snow cover is not heavy for the northern and central plains so what affect will that have on these cold highs dipping southward. Plus like Bgoney mentioned the southeast ridge is starting its normal late Feb and early March northward trek so will these to fight it out and leave us with a mess.

[tron777]

WOW , there is a lot going on next week. Quite the battle between the SE ridge and Arctic high

Euro is much colder on this run with a big arctic high pressing in. Past runs have been warmer / wet like the GFS.

Les with the snow and cold still dominating western and central Canada and when the pna just stays neutral or a little positive we can get these cold spells to drop rather far south. Once you get into the USA the snow cover is not heavy for the northern and central plains so what affect will that have on these cold highs dipping southward. Plus like Bgoney mentioned the southeast ridge is starting its normal late Feb and early March northward trek so will these to fight it out and leave us with a mess.

I'm keeping next week wet n mild unless what we are seeing right on the Euro gains any traction of course.

[tpweather]

Things are setting up somewhere down the road for one big March storm. If the trends continue of cold trying to win out and the southeast doing the same this can lead to a major March storm and if that happens probably one that will change the pattern to more of a spring pattern.

[snowbo]

Wind advisory for Wednesday.

[MVWxObserver]

Also much of IN under a Flood Watch.

[tron777]

18Z NAM tracks the low NW of Cincy thru SE IN and into the Central OH area. Looks to be South from the 12z run.

[tron777]

18Z GFS is going to come in a bump to the SE. So instead of my IND to TOL / CLE call... perhaps, the models are starting to converge on a track closer to us? Either way, we are still going to be windy and rainy. The heavy rain threat might not be as bad with a track closer to us. So that's some good news if correct. Still not really looking at a wintry aspect with this system for us.

[tron777]

52 here currently, 51 at CVG... not bad! Windy southerly flow will get us into the low 60s tomorrow!

[tpweather]

Hey Les, and a beautiful day where some of the leftover snow and ice start to melt. Interesting system in many aspects. First of all the models are showing a good deal of moisture coming up from the GOM. Nothing strange there but its so dry to the south and west of here and you see all those red flag warnings. These are usually sent out when the land is dry and strong winds but the dew points are low and that is key part I see is dew points are just not that high and many places in the low 30's well to the south. So its going to take sometime to moisten up the atmosphere on Wednesday and when the rain finally arrives it will probably be light until Thursday. That is one reason I went a little lower with rain totals is some of the moisture is wasted on getting the atmosphere primed. Saying that probably going to be an narrow area that gets into the heavy rain for several hours and those totals can add up quickly. Still going .5-1 inch and probably a little low but I hope the lower totals work out for most folks. I agree on the winter side of the system and 1/2 of snow would be tops at best and probably the one thing to watch is some freezing of the sidewalks and maybe a few roads when the cold air comes in quickly. Usually we have enough time and wind to help dry the streets up before they freeze plus with the really warm temps ahead of the system it really helps surface temps but I have seen where it can still get a little slick say late Thursday night or early Friday morning but it will be spotty imo.

[tron777]

After this system... 18Z GFS shows a lot of cold rain mid to late next week so looking very busy. We will need to see if this trends colder for some wintry fun or not. We'll see... it is close!

[tron777]

Hey Les, and a beautiful day where some of the leftover snow and ice start to melt. Interesting system in many aspects. First of all the models are showing a good deal of moisture coming up from the GOM. Nothing strange there but its so dry to the south and west of here and you see all those red flag warnings. These are usually sent out when the land is dry and strong winds but the dew points are low and that is key part I see is dew points are just not that high and many places in the low 30's well to the south. So its going to take sometime to moisten up the atmosphere on Wednesday and when the rain finally arrives it will probably be light until Thursday. That is one reason I went a little lower with rain totals is some of the moisture is wasted on getting the atmosphere primed. Saying that probably going to be an narrow area that gets into the heavy rain for several hours and those totals can add up quickly. Still going .5-1 inch and probably a little low but I hope the lower totals work out for most folks. I agree on the winter side of the system and 1/2 of snow would be tops at best and probably the one thing to watch is some freezing of the sidewalks and maybe a few roads when the cold air comes in quickly. Usually we have enough time and wind to help dry the streets up before they freeze plus with the really warm temps ahead of the system it really helps surface temps but I have seen where it can still get a little slick say late Thursday night or early Friday morning but it will be spotty imo.

I still have ice and snow at the bottom of my driveway that still hasn't melted lol

[tron777]

18Z Euro went south tracking the low from Western TN thru Central KY and into SE Ohio.

[MVWxObserver]

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[cloudy72]

Slight risk all the way up to the river on Thursday now.

[Bgoney]

Despite the ongoing minor battle with the low track, none of the outcomes have changed for our region. Still have to go with 1-2" qpf for the region . Wind advisory criteria for both days. Next Tues looks like a repeat , another panhandle hooker visiting our region with another a few days after that as the battle between a SE ridge and a developing western trough along with Arctic air to the north battle it out the rest of the month

[tpweather]

Bgoney, dead on about the forecast. In the end all 3 models were wrong at times and correct at times. I believe the Euro caught on a couple of days ago and probably had the best track. The gfs just to far north and the CMC though just a little to far south finally corrected the thermals on Monday. So all in all a 3 way tie concerning models and like you mentioned the outcome on all 3 models are similar. Long term going to be very busy with several systems rolling through the center of the country.

[tron777]

A lot of rainfall is coming our way for the rest of Feb. Hopefully we can get enough cold air involved later on this month for some wintry precip. If not, get out the boats! I was surprised to see the slight risk this far north since the low track keeps coming south closer to us instead of NW of us. At any rate, Bgoney's post has us covered perfectly with this next system. Get ready for the wind today and tomorrow, that is probably the bigger story to go along with the heavier rains tomorrow.

[tpweather]

A lot of rainfall is coming our way for the rest of Feb. Hopefully we can get enough cold air involved later on this month for some wintry precip. If not, get out the boats! I was surprised to see the slight risk this far north since the low track keeps coming south closer to us instead of NW of us. At any rate, Bgoney's post has us covered perfectly with this next system. Get ready for the wind today and tomorrow, that is probably the bigger story to go along with the heavier rains tomorrow.

Great Post Les and raised my totals on rainfall just because the timing of the heaviest rain could be that 4-7 pm on Thursday. I always looks at the 4-8a and 4-8pm when trying to figure out totals for precip and I missed the timing the past couple of days so 1-2 sounds like a good forecast.

[tron777]

Good morning Tim! Models are def settling on a low track right over us. I am going to be wrong about it being north of us. Must be the reason why the bump up in severe, since the low is right on top of us when it comes thru for maximum wind shear and helicity. Not much, if any instability so that will keep a lid on this event from getting too out of hand at least but cannot rule anything out with the low being so close.

[tron777]

The longer term on the GFS is quite interesting. This is turning into a repeating pattern if correct and a step down approach back to winter. We've got this current system we are tracking, then the one next week which looks to be more rain, maybe ending as some wintry precip then again as we end Feb and begin March, a third one where we have colder air in place so all snow.

[tron777]

Starting the day at 44 at CVG. Best chance for any sun breaks are this morning. Winds already blowing at 10 to 15 mph. As the sun rises, the winds will only go up from here.

[tron777]

12Z NAM bumped back NW tracking the low thru SE IN towards Dayton.

[young pup]

Looking like a pretty good drop in temps behind the rain. Don't fall on your kiester when walking out the door on Friday morning.

[tron777]

Rainfall at CVG is down to about 3/4" so that's a good thing if correct on the NAM. Only thing JP that will help is the wind. Hoping it dries out the pavement some anyway.