February 2022 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Low of 20 at CVG, 19 here. We should be able to top 50 today for a nice afternoon! 60s tomorrow but increasing wind and cloud cover can be expected.

[airwolf76]

warm and wet till the end of the month. late Feb into first half of March possible cold and wintry . many people are going to say winter is over starting this week but that may not be the case.

[Bgoney]

What is interesting about this system is the NWS offices in the central plains have not issued any winter related advisories and the system gets going later on Wednesday. Though the gfs has been showing the same track for days my guess there are some issues the folks are trying to figure out. First the Euro though it came a little further north is still several miles south of the gfs. Second there looks to be quite a bit of dry air trying to enter the system from the northwest and does this eat up some of the precip after it changes to snow. Sure they will issue something later today but rather late especially for places that have not seen much in the way of winter weather this season.

Agree TIm , it is such a narrow deform band, albeit long but very narrow heavy band. Once out of the heavy axis snow amounts drop dramatically on either side.. THe slightest shift in that narrow band would make forecasters look very bad

[tron777]

warm and wet till the end of the month. late Feb into first half of March possible cold and wintry . many people are going to say winter is over starting this week but that may not be the case.

You've read my thoughts. I see one window of opportunity left before spring.

[tron777]

IND to Lake Erie type of track seems to be pretty solid now for this next system in terms of the low track. That should put us in the hvy rain, windy condition threat with this system.

[tpweather]

Latest gfs a tad further south so heading towards the Euro.

[tpweather]

Latest gfs a tad further south so heading towards the Euro. CMC similar to last night and still gives us some snow on the back end. Okay Euro what is the final verdict lol.

[snowbo]

The Canadian is not backing down. Wants to give me more snow with CVG riding the line.

[tron777]

CMC is continuing to come north though with every run. Tracks the low right over us. I do not see the low tracking south of us. Over us to north of us yes. I am going with the IND to TOL type of track that the GFS has had for days now.

[MVWxObserver]

No changes overnight or for quite some time for that matter , GFS has lead the way with EU following closer each run. Still 1-2" qpf and of course the winds will be an issue especially wednesday/thursday, which Trev mentioned several days back. Will be quite the snowstorm for plains/midwest , possible blizzard conditions, they can use any kind of qpf in the southern plains as it has been a dry winter, so good for them

Definitely looks like at least advisory criteria. Any heavier showers or storms could of course being down even higher winds. With the saturated grounds, spotty power outages would seem like a good bet.

Trev has been on the wind issue for days and its an interesting set up. Many times you get some strong winds but they tend to last only a few hours with the higher winds. This may be a 24-36 hour period with constant winds over 20 mph plus some higher gust over 40 easily. This can tumble down some trees especially this time of year.

Glad my folks and I got rid of our Sugar Maples a while back.

[tron777]

GEFS also looks good for the track I have outlined. I'm riding the GFS / GEFS for this system.

[tron777]

An inch or so looks good with this event for rainfall. Isolated 2" amounts certainly possible. I like another couple inches of rain for next week too. Those with flooding or Ohio river interests will want to monitor things in the next week to ten days for sure.

[Bgoney]

PHH pattern is not letting up in the long range GFS. Hopefully some big cutters for the plains , they are in desperate need of QPF

[tpweather]

Euro coming in further south and weaker and heading more towards the cmc.

[tpweather]

So far today all 3 models have went further south with the system but also rather progressive. I believe that is one problem models are having problems with and that is the progressive nature of this system. Sometimes when you have winds that are constant for a longer term it can move systems through quicker and once we get into severe weather sometimes the constant winds can help in keeping away stronger t-storms and tornado's.

[Bgoney]

I love it , Chicago GFS - 12". EU - 2"

[tron777]

I see the Euro and CMC want to track the low over us and the GFS / GEFS are IND to TOL / CLE type of track. I've stated my call already so we'll see how the chips fall on this one.

[Bgoney]

WHichever track gives us less QPF is the one I want

[tpweather]

I believe models are having problems because tons of moisture available but the wind fields are such that everything is moving quickly and makes it harder for storms to get stronger and also gain latitude because the higher winds are north of the storm itself on Wednesday. Like Bgoney pointed out with the Euro and GFS and the difference in snow totals and we are within 24 hours of this system starting to get together. That is one big difference. Concerning percip totals and I agree with Bgoney on the lower totals and probably going to be a narrow area of heavier rains while other folks get in that .5-1.0 because of the faster nature of this system. Still cannot rule out 2 inches for somebody but I am going quite a bit lower for most folks. Not sure where that heavier rainfall will set up and may not know until a few hours before the system begins.

[tpweather]

Sort of wild with this system because many times with a severe outbreak and you have strong winds up high those winds serve a purpose to knock off some of the tops of thunderstorms and helps lower the severe threat. I wonder with the winds expected over the next two days what kind of affect this is having with the forecast.

[tpweather]

The NWS employees must be pulling their hair out in the central plains. 24 hours or so away from this system gearing up and not one winter weather advisory of any kind has been issued.

[winterstormjoe]

I believe models are having problems because tons of moisture available but the wind fields are such that everything is moving quickly and makes it harder for storms to get stronger and also gain latitude because the higher winds are north of the storm itself on Wednesday. Like Bgoney pointed out with the Euro and GFS and the difference in snow totals and we are within 24 hours of this system starting to get together. That is one big difference. Concerning percip totals and I agree with Bgoney on the lower totals and probably going to be a narrow area of heavier rains while other folks get in that .5-1.0 because of the faster nature of this system. Still cannot rule out 2 inches for somebody but I am going quite a bit lower for most folks. Not sure where that heavier rainfall will set up and may not know until a few hours before the system begins.

Hey Tim, I guess we don't need any excessive rainfall from this system as there is still some runoff going on from all that sleet fest we had a week in a half ago and some of the rivers are a little high, but I'm hoping that we do get a decent downpour out of this system to clean some of the streets and sidewalk that have dirt on them.

[tpweather]

Hey Joe, I agree and would love to see a nice period of moderate rain to clean up the streets and other areas as well. Starting to worry about the next several weeks in term of rain as the pattern is starting to shape up for many many systems to be coming through this area and early in March the vegetation is just not there as we know.

[Bgoney]

WOW , there is a lot going on next week. Quite the battle between the SE ridge and Arctic high

[tpweather]

WOW , there is a lot going on next week. Quite the battle between the SE ridge and Arctic high

I agree Bgoney and that is why I am sort of worried about severe weather. Again not sure its going to be here locally at the moment but you would guess somewhere in the eastern half of the nation severe weather will break out. I am leaving for SC next Tuesday for about a week so who knows what I may get in that area.