February 2022 Weather Discussion

[young pup]

Really hoping any snow stays away from up here. Planning on coming down to Cincy to my sisters to watch, well you all know that thing that is happening later on today.

[fyrfyter]

ILN just issued an SPS for the potential for snow squalls here between 4p-9p.

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwa ... 0statement

[tpweather]

The forecast looks correct and perfect timing between 4 and 9 when dew points and temps closer together and if we get some decent sun before that time period

[tron777]

Saw some mood flakes to kick off the dey this morning too!

[fyrfyter]

Saw some mood flakes to kick off the dey this morning too!

Same- If we do get snow squalls, we might get to see that new warning issuance.

[tpweather]

Saw some mood flakes to kick off the dey this morning too!

Same- If we do get snow squalls, we might get to see that new warning issuance.

My guess is they may issue a winter weather advisory say from 3pm-11pm for up to 1 inch of snow but streets can become slippery quickly because of the time of day.

[tron777]

We'll see guys! I think the heavier bursts will be isolated so a snow squall warning vs a winter weather advisory, I also believe is the way to go here. We'll see how things develop with this as the day goes on. They might continue to use an SPS for all we know.

[tpweather]

We'll see guys! I think the heavier bursts will be isolated so a snow squall warning vs a winter weather advisory, I also believe is the way to go here. We'll see how things develop with this as the day goes on. They might continue to use an SPS for all we know.

Les,normally I believe they would stick with the sps. The only reason is the traffic after the Super Bowl is going to be much higher than normal locally. Does this fit into the equation and I believe it should only to make folks aware that roads could be slick during the evening and if your area misses out that is okay as well. The area of snow is shrinking this morning as expected but should expand later this afternoon even though its a narrow area that gets hit. Perfect track for us locally and wish the precip values were higher.

[tron777]

Tim... As lapse rates steepen this afternoon, I also expect the area of snow to gain a bit of strength as it moves thru this afternoon. Yes, we are seeing a down tick right now but it'll re-fire a bit later. We'll see a little sun coming up here to create a little instability for this clipper to work with later. Plenty cold, temps in the 20s so every flake will count. A few folks will get a 1/2" plus with this activity. Some folks won't see much of anything.

[tpweather]

Les,will be interesting to see the afternoon forecasts for the storm later this week. Overnight they stayed put and lets see if any major three models moved overnight. A progressive system with plenty of moisture and can the cold air catch up to the moisture before it leaves our area.

[Bgoney]

GFS track to INDY much like 6z. Altlantic ridging is overpowering the Canadien high on this run. Need that AR to move eastward quicker to allow the low to track more south

[tpweather]

CMC is even better for snow lovers. We have a big battle going on and the Euro really has been in between this models since the start so lets see how that model shakes out this afternoon.

[tron777]

Euro has trended a bit weaker with the system overall on this afternoon's run for next weeks storm, but it's not going to help out snow lovers. UKIE tracks the low from Paducah over into Eastern KY. Heavy snow swath is still mainly north and west of our area.

[tron777]

Back to the SB Clipper and snow showers exist back over ILL and an area of light snow as well over Indiana. Current look at the snow squall parameter to our NW.

snsq.gif

[tron777]

Update as of 1pm:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Continue to see a decrease in clouds across the area which will
allow a little bit of warming, but overall remaining a cold day.
Clouds associated with the next disturbance are already
approaching the western part of the forecast area.

Still tracking a short wave that will swing across the region
later this afternoon into the early evening. Expecting general
area of light echoes across parts of Indiana and Illinois to
increase in intensity and coverage as they move into the region
later this afternoon.

High resolution guidance continues to favor the Cincinnati Tri-
State as most favored area for snow showers. This is also where
snow squalls have the higher chance of occurring. Still not
clear whether all parameters will come together for squalls to
develop, but potential remains.

[tpweather]

My last post of the day as headed to a SB party. Just rooting for the CMC to win the battle of the models this week. Unless this thing really moves northwest over the next few days it has outdone the other two models at least 5-7 days away from the storm. Funny when the CMC does better with a storm which is seldom it will change course about 48 hours in advance almost all the time. I have no ideal why this happens but it seems every year the same repeat happens.

[snowbo]

Snow globe snow here now! Pavement covered again.

[tron777]

Cloudy here... snow is knocking on my doorstep.

[tron777]

Light snow just started here!

[tron777]

27 and a snow shower in progress... Who Dey!!! Under 2 hours now...

[tron777]

Who Dey!!!

snsq.gif

[tron777]

26 and light snow at CVG as of 5pm. Vis 3 miles.

Latest from the boys

PV anomaly over northern Indiana will sweep east southeast
across the area late this afternoon into this evening. This
along with steep low level lapse rates mostly in the dendritic
growth zone has created an environment that could support snow
squalls.

Fairly large area of snow showers is starting to spread into the
western portion of the forecast area. More concerning is how the
echoes are becoming more convective across Indiana with some
short line segments trying to form.

Pavement temperatures have warmed substantially, especially
across southern counties where more sun was seen today. Will be
watching to see how fast these fall late in the day and into
the evening. A convective snow burst could drop pavement
temperatures very quickly.

It still looks like the most impacts from these snow showers
will affect the Cincinnati Tri-State and then further east near
the Ohio River.

Precipitation will be out of the area by midnight with some
clearing. However, additional clouds will spread in late tonight
and cannot rule out some flurries in northern Kentucky.


NEW SPS - ALERT:


...SNOW LIKELY THIS AFTEROON AND EVENING...

Snow showers will move through portions of southeast Indiana,
southwest Ohio and northern Kentucky over the next several hours.
There is the potential for some embedded heavier snow squalls. Snow
squalls can cause sudden whiteout conditions and slick roadways. The
greatest chance for snow squalls is between now and 9 pm.

If you have plans to be driving this afternoon and evening, make
sure to check on the latest weather before heading out. Use extra
caution in case hazardous driving conditions develop. You want to
make sure that you can enjoy whatever activities may be occurring.

[tron777]

25 / 18 here with a steady light snow.. love it! An hour till The Kick!!!! Who Dey!

[tron777]

Getting a dusting on the car tops now... coming down pretty good! 24 / 18

[MVWxObserver]

Snow Squall Warning

SNOW SQUALL WARNING
NWS WILMINGTON OH
545 PM EST SUN FEB 13 2022

OHC109-149-132330-
/O.NEW.KILN.SQ.W.0001.220213T2245Z-220213T2330Z/
545 PM EST SUN FEB 13 2022
Miami County-Shelby County-

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Snow Squall Warning for...
Southern Shelby County in west central Ohio...
Northern Miami County in west central Ohio...

* Until 630 PM EST.

* At 544 PM EST, a dangerous snow squall was located along a line
extending from near Sidney to near Covington, moving east at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Extremely poor visibility in heavy snow.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Dangerous life-threatening travel.

* This includes I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 77 and 100.

Locations impacted include...
Sidney, Piqua, Covington, Anna, Hardin, Fletcher, Port Jefferson,
Lockington, Polo, Newbern, Ballou, Plattsville, Maplewood,
Farrington, Swanders and Houston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow Down! Rapid changes in visibility and road conditions are
expected with this dangerous snow squall. Be alert for sudden
whiteout conditions.

$$