tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 1:51 pm
12Z Euro... anybody look at that one yet for this weekend? The surface maps show nothinbg, but they do not jive at all with the 500 MB vorticity maps. The energy is all behind the front and some of it is left behind in Canada also since we don't get the phase. You would think we shiould see more precip associated with such a virgeous trough bit nope. Euro can be tossed because there should be some QPF over the S Apps and Mid ATL states abnd there's nothing.
The EURO has had that clipper system for days and wonder if it keeps the energy back for that system.
Agreed Tim... that should be the Mon morning clipper that the Euro has been touting for days. It looked like it was holding it back in an attempt to phase it but it never happeneed. Again, when the surface and 500 MB maps don't jive, you typically toss it anyway.
Hey Les I went with the higher precip totals but not because of the gfs. I just thought with a nice southerly flow and a decent cold front we could see that .25 inches of rainfall.
tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 2:35 pm
Hey Les I went with the higher precip totals but not because of the gfs. I just thought with a nice southerly flow and a decent cold front we could see that .25 inches of rainfall.
Of course! I knew your reasoning. What I should have said was that the GFS supported your call so that was my mistake.
For SB Weekend: The 12Z EPS Mean at 500 MB shows the axis of the trough over the Great Lakes by Sunday morning just like the OP Euro did. Now we know the Euro's surface maps were crap. If anyone has EPS precip access or can see the indivdual members, please post if they show anything at all for Sat night into Sunday. Thanks! Just want to know if we have any CMC support at all here. GFS / GEFS weren't quite there.
NAM (long range) is similar to GFS in the 500 vort short waves
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12Z RGEM - I forgot that one... the short range Canadian, and it looks better at 84 hours then even the regular CMC does for SB Sunday. Dang! We'll see if the Canadians can gain any support for this.
tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 2:35 pm
Hey Les I went with the higher precip totals but not because of the gfs. I just thought with a nice southerly flow and a decent cold front we could see that .25 inches of rainfall.
Of course! I knew your reasoning. What I should have said was that the GFS supported your call so that was my mistake.
Hey Les has the CMC made a score this season. Usually it will get one or two correct that the other two miss. I believe the CMC has not scored this season but I may have missed one earlier in the season.
tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 2:35 pm
Hey Les I went with the higher precip totals but not because of the gfs. I just thought with a nice southerly flow and a decent cold front we could see that .25 inches of rainfall.
Of course! I knew your reasoning. What I should have said was that the GFS supported your call so that was my mistake.
Hey Les has the CMC made a score this season. Usually it will get one or two correct that the other two miss. I believe the CMC has not scored this season but I may have missed one earlier in the season.
It's done poorly. To be honest and this might sound strange, but I honestly think as a whole, the GFS has been the best this winter. Just my opinion.
I agree Les that the gfs has done the best this season. Several things in the extended and the NWS really has us warming up next week and even more so the week after. I agree about the upcoming week ahead of the nice storm system but after that its a battle. Gfs has the mjo going quickly into 3 and then 4 which is a warmer phase. So far this season that has not been what is happening with the mjo and it stays put in a certain phase longer than models show. The AO being strong is a concern of course and models are trying to show the pna go somewhat negative and that combo is not good if you want cold air. So I agree with the milder air mid-week but after that I am going to sit and wait on the warmth to continue.
I think the GFS does better with La Nina's and northern stream dominated winters. I also think the Euro struggles with southern stream systems too when we have split flow. We've had that set up a lot this winter too.
tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 4:08 pm
I agree Les that the gfs has done the best this season. Several things in the extended and the NWS really has us warming up next week and even more so the week after. I agree about the upcoming week ahead of the nice storm system but after that its a battle. Gfs has the mjo going quickly into 3 and then 4 which is a warmer phase. So far this season that has not been what is happening with the mjo and it stays put in a certain phase longer than models show. The AO being strong is a concern of course and models are trying to show the pna go somewhat negative and that combo is not good if you want cold air. So I agree with the milder air mid-week but after that I am going to sit and wait on the warmth to continue.
If we stay in Phase 3, we won't torch. Phase 4, then break out the flip flops lol
tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 4:08 pm
I agree Les that the gfs has done the best this season. Several things in the extended and the NWS really has us warming up next week and even more so the week after. I agree about the upcoming week ahead of the nice storm system but after that its a battle. Gfs has the mjo going quickly into 3 and then 4 which is a warmer phase. So far this season that has not been what is happening with the mjo and it stays put in a certain phase longer than models show. The AO being strong is a concern of course and models are trying to show the pna go somewhat negative and that combo is not good if you want cold air. So I agree with the milder air mid-week but after that I am going to sit and wait on the warmth to continue.
If we stay in Phase 3, we won't torch. Phase 4, then break out the flip flops lol
I agree Les especially with the projected AO though starting to see a little flip later next week or weekend where the AO heads back to normal. We saw this happen last week as it switched several days ahead of the nice winter storm. Will this happen again and if so then expect a decent cold snap after next weeks storm.
My thought process is up's and down's like what we've been seeing. You need a well timed shortwave for snow and that's that. As long as the big ridge in the NE Pacific stays tucked in close to the West Coast, you will not get very warm. A couple of days here or there but nothing sustainable. A trough will continue to drop in to beat the SE ridge down. This is exactly what has happened when models broke down the cold pattern too early. I can think of 1 if not 2 occasions where this has already happened this winter. If the right retrogrades to the west then we'll get the -PNA and warmth to be more sustainable. Same thing if MJO goes into phases 4, 5 or 6.
Currently, our pattern remains the same in my opinion for the rest of Feb and probably into early March too before spring finally arrives for good. We will have warm days between now and then, but cold shots and snow chances are going to be there too. I think we've got a solid month to go before us snow weenies go back to bed until November or December.
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 4:37 pm
My thought process is up's and down's like what we've been seeing. You need a well timed shortwave for snow and that's that. As long as the big ridge in the NE Pacific stays tucked in close to the West Coast, you will not get very warm. A couple of days here or there but nothing sustainable. A trough will continue to drop in to beat the SE ridge down. This is exactly what has happened when models broke down the cold pattern too early. I can think of 1 if not 2 occasions where this has already happened this winter. If the right retrogrades to the west then we'll get the -PNA and warmth to be more sustainable. Same thing if MJO goes into phases 4, 5 or 6.
Currently, our pattern remains the same in my opinion for the rest of Feb and probably into early March too before spring finally arrives for good. We will have warm days between now and then, but cold shots and snow chances are going to be there too. I think we've got a solid month to go before us snow weenies go back to bed until November or December.
I think a nice warm period is in the cards starting sometime during the last week in FEB into March , whether that last 1 , 2 , or 3 weeks IDK. But definitely see A flare up of the SE ridge in response to the MJO
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
Northern stream wave is much, much slower on the 18Z GFS. The front just bulldozes its way thru because there's nothing even anywhere near that can phase to slow the front down. The snow area I am forecasting for the mountains is a bit SE of that zone on this run.
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 4:37 pm
My thought process is up's and down's like what we've been seeing. You need a well timed shortwave for snow and that's that. As long as the big ridge in the NE Pacific stays tucked in close to the West Coast, you will not get very warm. A couple of days here or there but nothing sustainable. A trough will continue to drop in to beat the SE ridge down. This is exactly what has happened when models broke down the cold pattern too early. I can think of 1 if not 2 occasions where this has already happened this winter. If the right retrogrades to the west then we'll get the -PNA and warmth to be more sustainable. Same thing if MJO goes into phases 4, 5 or 6.
Currently, our pattern remains the same in my opinion for the rest of Feb and probably into early March too before spring finally arrives for good. We will have warm days between now and then, but cold shots and snow chances are going to be there too. I think we've got a solid month to go before us snow weenies go back to bed until November or December.
I think a nice warm period is in the cards starting sometime during the last week in FEB into March , whether that last 1 , 2 , or 3 weeks IDK. But definitely see A flare up of the SE ridge in response to the MJO
If the GFS is right, I agree and we are going to see sustained warmth with the MJO Phase 4. Probably after Pres Day is when the warm up commences. But I'm waiting on that to see if that MJO forecast is correct or not. As of 2/7 the MJO went from the boarder of Phases 2/3 back into 2. Need to keep an eye on its trends over the next week to see what happens with this. I'm not currently sold we get into Phase 4 that quickly.
If Kyle MacRitchie's MJO forecast model is right, March 2012 returns! I know you mentioned March of 2012 the other day, Bgoney. Like I said, I'll be checking with the Aussies from time to time to see how the MJO progresses over the next week to 2 weeks.
realtimemjo.png
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Not sure about that MJO plot , it doesn't even match up to where it's been the last few weeks
Screenshot_20220209-172411_Drive.jpg
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Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 4:37 pm
My thought process is up's and down's like what we've been seeing. You need a well timed shortwave for snow and that's that. As long as the big ridge in the NE Pacific stays tucked in close to the West Coast, you will not get very warm. A couple of days here or there but nothing sustainable. A trough will continue to drop in to beat the SE ridge down. This is exactly what has happened when models broke down the cold pattern too early. I can think of 1 if not 2 occasions where this has already happened this winter. If the right retrogrades to the west then we'll get the -PNA and warmth to be more sustainable. Same thing if MJO goes into phases 4, 5 or 6.
Currently, our pattern remains the same in my opinion for the rest of Feb and probably into early March too before spring finally arrives for good. We will have warm days between now and then, but cold shots and snow chances are going to be there too. I think we've got a solid month to go before us snow weenies go back to bed until November or December.
So bro, this coming Redlegs Opening Day in late March may actually feel, hopefully, like baseball weather for a change.
Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 5:29 pm
Not sure about that MJO plot , it doesn't even match up to where it's been the last few weeks
Screenshot_20220209-172411_Drive.jpg
It has struggled about 75% of the time this winter. It did really good with the early Jan pattern change after the mega warm December. That was about it. It's an experimental MJO model and not officially used by the Govt to my knowledge.
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 4:37 pm
My thought process is up's and down's like what we've been seeing. You need a well timed shortwave for snow and that's that. As long as the big ridge in the NE Pacific stays tucked in close to the West Coast, you will not get very warm. A couple of days here or there but nothing sustainable. A trough will continue to drop in to beat the SE ridge down. This is exactly what has happened when models broke down the cold pattern too early. I can think of 1 if not 2 occasions where this has already happened this winter. If the right retrogrades to the west then we'll get the -PNA and warmth to be more sustainable. Same thing if MJO goes into phases 4, 5 or 6.
Currently, our pattern remains the same in my opinion for the rest of Feb and probably into early March too before spring finally arrives for good. We will have warm days between now and then, but cold shots and snow chances are going to be there too. I think we've got a solid month to go before us snow weenies go back to bed until November or December.
So bro, this coming Redlegs Opening Day in late March may actually feel, hopefully, like baseball weather for a change.
Currently 41 here in G'ville.
50 here, my high was 52. We'll see Bro! Knowing our luck it'll snow, which we have seen before!
