February 2022 Weather Discussion

[Bgoney]

So far the whole 12z suite was a trend of improvement for SBS. Thats all you can ask atm. Not enough for CVGland, YET. Some big differences at the 500mb levels and also how the models are handling the northern shortwave strength and sharpness and intermingling with the Southern shortwave . 4 or 4 and half days out still

[Trevor]

Pete Delkus is probably the best Met Channel 9 ever had since the days of Bob Alan. You have to be old to know who he was.

Pete is the man! He was so kind and nice to my community after the tornado in ‘99. He even came to my school to do a presentation after with Larry Handley to calm down us kiddos’ (and adults, too) nerves. I.e. explaining things like what scud clouds are and that they are not tornadoes even though they can look scary. Shoot, I was petrified of dark clouds for months after the fact, yet now I’m a storm junkie. The brain sure is wild!

I exchange messages with Pete every so often to this day. Maybe I’ll see if he wants to pop on here and say hi!

[dce]

The CMC is definitely a trend in the right direction for SBS. Not sure it's believable, but a good trend nonetheless.

[tpweather]

The one good thing about the weekend system is it will be getting stronger as time goes on. Will it get its act together early enough to get snow in here and just a little to early but not matter what happens its going to be a cloudy and cold day.

[tron777]

Keeps the SBS event progged just to our SE interesting though. Stronger sharper northern wave improvement , especiall y for the coast, need the southern wave to slow down more for us.

Now the 12Z CMC sharpens it up fast enough now to bring light snow SE of I-71 Sat night and SE Crew in general for SB morning. Def the furthest NW solution I've seen in days.

[tron777]

Good Afternoon Les and you had the temp better for today than I did. Looks like we should reach 50 before the front moves through and winds are changing to the west around Indy already so a few more hours before we start to cool down. Still working on the weekend forecast

Thanks Tim! Clouds didn't last long and we got some sunshine so there you go. Plus strong SW flow ahead of the next front. We're pushing 50 now.

[tron777]

Pete Delkus is probably the best Met Channel 9 ever had since the days of Bob Alan. You have to be old to know who he was.

Pete is the man! He was so kind and nice to my community after the tornado in ‘99. He even came to my school to do a presentation after with Larry Handley to calm down us kiddos’ (and adults, too) nerves. I.e. explaining things like what scud clouds are and that they are not tornadoes even though they can look scary. Shoot, I was petrified of dark clouds for months after the fact, yet now I’m a storm junkie. The brain sure is wild!

I exchange messages with Pete every so often to this day. Maybe I’ll see if he wants to pop on here and say hi!

Awesome Trev! Nice to see Pete is still down in Dallas after all these years. A shame he didn't stay in our market longer but I get it.

[tpweather]

Where does the front stall is another piece of the puzzle. I a rooting for a big warm up on Friday with a strong southerly wind and then have the front stall in the Tn Valley on Saturday.

[tron777]

So far the whole 12z suite was a trend of improvement for SBS. Thats all you can ask atm. Not enough for CVGland, YET. Some big differences at the 500mb levels and also how the models are handling the northern shortwave strength and sharpness and intermingling with the Southern shortwave . 4 or 4 and half days out still

Agreed... def an improvement. So with me forecasting it to be a miss to the SE, watch us reel it in and this things comes back to the NW. Not completely ruling it out, but low chances as everybody knows. Would like to see better Ensemble support for what the CMC is showing today. We had better GEFS support the other day and it has backed off since.

[Bgoney]

So far the whole 12z suite was a trend of improvement for SBS. Thats all you can ask atm. Not enough for CVGland, YET. Some big differences at the 500mb levels and also how the models are handling the northern shortwave strength and sharpness and intermingling with the Southern shortwave . 4 or 4 and half days out still

Agreed... def an improvement. So with me forecasting it to be a miss to the SE, watch us reel it in and this things comes back to the NW. Not completely ruling it out, but low chances as everybody knows. Would like to see better Ensemble support for what the CMC is showing today. We had better GEFS support the other day and it has backed off since.

Lol, I hadn't even looked at the CMC, so another improvement, that's all I ask atm.

[Bgoney]

So far the whole 12z suite was a trend of improvement for SBS. Thats all you can ask atm. Not enough for CVGland, YET. Some big differences at the 500mb levels and also how the models are handling the northern shortwave strength and sharpness and intermingling with the Southern shortwave . 4 or 4 and half days out still

Agreed... def an improvement. So with me forecasting it to be a miss to the SE, watch us reel it in and this things comes back to the NW. Not completely ruling it out, but low chances as everybody knows. Would like to see better Ensemble support for what the CMC is showing today. We had better GEFS support the other day and it has backed off since.

Lol, I hadn't even looked at the CMC, I WAS Including the NAM at long range, so another improvement, that's all I ask atm.

[Trevor]

Pete Delkus is probably the best Met Channel 9 ever had since the days of Bob Alan. You have to be old to know who he was.

Pete is the man! He was so kind and nice to my community after the tornado in ‘99. He even came to my school to do a presentation after with Larry Handley to calm down us kiddos’ (and adults, too) nerves. I.e. explaining things like what scud clouds are and that they are not tornadoes even though they can look scary. Shoot, I was petrified of dark clouds for months after the fact, yet now I’m a storm junkie. The brain sure is wild!

I exchange messages with Pete every so often to this day. Maybe I’ll see if he wants to pop on here and say hi!

Awesome Trev! Nice to see Pete is still down in Dallas after all these years. A shame he didn't stay in our market longer but I get it.

Right?!? And he left us with Chin Man

[Trevor]

You all know I’m not a big fan of CB for many reasons, but I do check out his site from time to time. Two things: Trevor likey the upper air chart he posted. And second, the Bengals reference at the end.

[Bgoney]

Screenshot_20220209-131256_Chrome.jpg

[Bgoney]

You all know I’m not a big fan of CB for many reasons, but I do check out his site from time to time. Two things: Trevor likey the upper air chart he posted. And second, the Bengals reference at the end.

Lol, face it Trev you're hooked

[Trevor]

You all know I’m not a big fan of CB for many reasons, but I do check out his site from time to time. Two things: Trevor likey the upper air chart he posted. And second, the Bengals reference at the end.

Lol, face it Trev you're hooked

[tron777]

12Z Euro... anybody look at that one yet for this weekend? The surface maps show nothinbg, but they do not jive at all with the 500 MB vorticity maps. The energy is all behind the front and some of it is left behind in Canada also since we don't get the phase. You would think we shiould see more precip associated with such a virgeous trough bit nope. Euro can be tossed because there should be some QPF over the S Apps and Mid ATL states abnd there's nothing.

[tron777]

You all know I’m not a big fan of CB for many reasons, but I do check out his site from time to time. Two things: Trevor likey the upper air chart he posted. And second, the Bengals reference at the end.

Lol, face it Trev you're hooked

What do the kids call it today, BFF's?

[Bgoney]

12Z Euro... anybody look at that one yet for this weekend? The surface maps show nothinbg, but they do not jive at all with the 500 MB vorticity maps. The energy is all behind the front and some of it is left behind in Canada also since we don't get the phase. You would think we shiould see more precip associated with such a virgeous trough bit nope. Euro can be tossed because there should be some QPF over the S Apps and Mid ATL states abnd there's nothing.

Les, i absolutely thought the same thing. Its very similar to the GFS vorticity distribution, yet doesn's translate to the surface

[tron777]

12Z Euro... anybody look at that one yet for this weekend? The surface maps show nothinbg, but they do not jive at all with the 500 MB vorticity maps. The energy is all behind the front and some of it is left behind in Canada also since we don't get the phase. You would think we shiould see more precip associated with such a virgeous trough bit nope. Euro can be tossed because there should be some QPF over the S Apps and Mid ATL states abnd there's nothing.

Les, i absolutely thought the same thing. Its very similar to the GFS vorticity distribution, yet doesn's translate to the surface

Definately! The support is better today for sure. I am keeping my Eastern KY / WV call going for now. I am not sold as of yet on the CMC's solution. I would say too that the Euro and GFS are close per 500 MB. That's more important anyway. The surface always works itself out later.

[tron777]

49 now at CVG as of 2pm... 50 to 55 for a lot of folks looks good today! Clouds are starting to increase again ahead of that next front, but the sun has done its job already today in getting us up to our forecasted highs.

[winterstormjoe]

12Z GFS brings in 0.25" of rain for Friday's system so that's a little juicer then my forecast. The front continues to stall across SE KY for the SBS system. Swing and a miss to the SE is what I continue to see on this one.

Hi Les, do you see this light rain for late afternoon and early evening on Friday to be widespread or do you see breaks? Going to a Bengals pub crawl in Cheviot. Thanks

[tron777]

FYI... I normally create a separate thread for Storm Spotter classes but now since they are virtual and no longer in person, why bother. Anyway... ILN has released some dates for the virtual storm spotter classes for this year. As far as I know, they are not expecting any of these to become in person.

https://www.weather.gov/iln/spottertrainingschedule

[tpweather]

12Z Euro... anybody look at that one yet for this weekend? The surface maps show nothinbg, but they do not jive at all with the 500 MB vorticity maps. The energy is all behind the front and some of it is left behind in Canada also since we don't get the phase. You would think we shiould see more precip associated with such a virgeous trough bit nope. Euro can be tossed because there should be some QPF over the S Apps and Mid ATL states abnd there's nothing.

The EURO has had that clipper system for days and wonder if it keeps the energy back for that system.

[tron777]

12Z GFS brings in 0.25" of rain for Friday's system so that's a little juicer then my forecast. The front continues to stall across SE KY for the SBS system. Swing and a miss to the SE is what I continue to see on this one.

Hi Les, do you see this light rain for late afternoon and early evening on Friday to be widespread or do you see breaks? Going to a Bengals pub crawl in Cheviot. Thanks

My call all along has been for scattered showers, nothing widespread or heavy. Euro has 0.10" for QPF which is more along my thinking. Tim likes the wetter GFS if I remember his thoughts correctly.