February 2022 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

I agree Les and the AO and NAO are both positive. Last week it was fun to watch as all the predictions had the AO positive for that period except about 5 or 6 days before the system the AO was predicted to go negative for about 3 days which it did and gave us the winter weather. At this point the prediction about both the AO and NAO are for a positive phase with the AO very positive. I will watch that over the next several days and see if there is a change to those tellies which could give us a clue how the system later next week may play out. Still plenty of cold in Canada and though a recent rise in temps they are going to get cold and very cold again plus with all the snow up there going to be a late spring for those folks.

[airwolf76]

nothing showing up on my 10 day. this first half of February is gonna be a real snooze fest if thats the case. there is some descent cold air being shown just lack of precip. some are saying second half the pattern flips and we torch but some others said it may remain this way till the end with storm chances so who knows.

[tron777]

nothing showing up on my 10 day. this first half of February is gonna be a real snooze fest if thats the case. there is some descent cold air being shown just lack of precip. some are saying second half the pattern flips and we torch but some others said it may remain this way till the end with storm chances so who knows.

I'm not completely sold yet on torching but there is a warmer risk present esp if the MJO goes into Phase 4 which Bgoney mentioned yesterday. If it stays in 3, then we should keep the current cooler look going. Phase 4 is an all out torch for sure. We watch and wait as usual from this distance.

[tron777]

I agree Les and the AO and NAO are both positive. Last week it was fun to watch as all the predictions had the AO positive for that period except about 5 or 6 days before the system the AO was predicted to go negative for about 3 days which it did and gave us the winter weather. At this point the prediction about both the AO and NAO are for a positive phase with the AO very positive. I will watch that over the next several days and see if there is a change to those tellies which could give us a clue how the system later next week may play out. Still plenty of cold in Canada and though a recent rise in temps they are going to get cold and very cold again plus with all the snow up there going to be a late spring for those folks.

This is a good reason why chances are low this go around then they were when Feb started. AO and NAO are way positive as you mentioned so the jet is screaming along and not slowing down for phasing systems to develop. PNA is positive though attm with a -EPO for now anyway. We'll see how long that is able to last. It might since the Nina has weakened considerably.

[tpweather]

nothing showing up on my 10 day. this first half of February is gonna be a real snooze fest if thats the case. there is some descent cold air being shown just lack of precip. some are saying second half the pattern flips and we torch but some others said it may remain this way till the end with storm chances so who knows.

I'm not completely sold yet on torching but there is a warmer risk present esp if the MJO goes into Phase 4 which Bgoney mentioned yesterday. If it stays in 3, then we should keep the current cooler look going. Phase 4 is an all out torch for sure. We watch and wait as usual from this distance.

Concerning phase 4 and so far this season the mjo has been a slow process in terms of getting from one phase to another. We have been in the COD for probably 20 days at least. So yes I believe we get to phase 4 but more towards the end of March and then we see a big flip to spring which I believe is a warm late March through May and I have seen some of the long term models showing a cold spring and those models are just about useless for the most part and tend to predict either cold or warm depending on the current weather set up.

[tpweather]

What I find interesting and really not surprising is these fronts that are expected to come through over the next several days are speeding up some. With snow and ice to the northwest this is no surprise and without a wave of low pressure to slow these fronts down then they sweep through very quickly. So what does this mean in terms of weather locally is the warming models show for both Wednesday and Friday may be halted some because of this and especially on Wednesday where I know models were showing 50-52 but we may need to cut that down depending on timing and may end up more in the low 40's.

[tron777]

GFS goes into Phase 3 but dies in the COD again. Euro wants to go weakly thru the warmer phases 4, 5, and 6 as we roll throughout March. We will torch if this is correct. If it dies early in Phase 3 then we will not torch IMO. Per the Aussies, we are out of the COD now as of 2/6 and currently weak, on the border of Phases 2 and 3. So we should get cold shots still for the next 2 weeks. Then we'll see if the torch comes or not after that.

[tron777]

What I find interesting and really not surprising is these fronts that are expected to come through over the next several days are speeding up some. With snow and ice to the northwest this is no surprise and without a wave of low pressure to slow these fronts down then they sweep through very quickly. So what does this mean in terms of weather locally is the warming models show for both Wednesday and Friday may be halted some because of this and especially on Wednesday where I know models were showing 50-52 but we may need to cut that down depending on timing and may end up more in the low 40's.

If we see enough sun, 50 is doable on Wed and maybe even Fri too. Agree if we stay cloudy then low 40s looks good.

[tpweather]

What I find interesting and really not surprising is these fronts that are expected to come through over the next several days are speeding up some. With snow and ice to the northwest this is no surprise and without a wave of low pressure to slow these fronts down then they sweep through very quickly. So what does this mean in terms of weather locally is the warming models show for both Wednesday and Friday may be halted some because of this and especially on Wednesday where I know models were showing 50-52 but we may need to cut that down depending on timing and may end up more in the low 40's.

If we see enough sun, 50 is doable on Wed and maybe even Fri too. Agree if we stay cloudy then low 40s looks good.

Friday looks more likely imo as a stronger system to the north and this can help with the south winds cranking a little more and just timing it looks like the front is much later in the day. Wednesday I am almost ready to give up on the 50 degree mark and most likely low 40's as that front seems to be arriving a few hours earlier than models just showed yesterday.

[tpweather]

GFS goes into Phase 3 but dies in the COD again. Euro wants to go weakly thru the warmer phases 4, 5, and 6 as we roll throughout March. We will torch if this is correct. If it dies early in Phase 3 then we will not torch IMO. Per the Aussies, we are out of the COD now as of 2/6 and currently weak, on the border of Phases 2 and 3. So we should get cold shots still for the next 2 weeks. Then we'll see if the torch comes or not after that.

The Aussie model is the way to go and this year so much better than other models that forecast the mjo. The Euro has been terrible with the mjo in the long term and I believe part of its longer term forecast have busted and partly in regards to this metric.

[tron777]

GFS goes into Phase 3 but dies in the COD again. Euro wants to go weakly thru the warmer phases 4, 5, and 6 as we roll throughout March. We will torch if this is correct. If it dies early in Phase 3 then we will not torch IMO. Per the Aussies, we are out of the COD now as of 2/6 and currently weak, on the border of Phases 2 and 3. So we should get cold shots still for the next 2 weeks. Then we'll see if the torch comes or not after that.

The Aussie model is the way to go and this year so much better than other models that forecast the mjo. The Euro has been terrible with the mjo in the long term and I believe part of its longer term forecast have busted and partly in regards to this metric.

I think the Aussie model has done better but all models have busted a time or two with the MJO this season. Really, almost every year we see a few busts,. The MJO is difficult to predict even though it is getting better with time. Kyle MacRitchie's experimental MJO model has also struggled at times.

[tron777]

Clouds are finally clearing out that this afternoon should be partly to mostly sunny. Temps will soar once the sun can break out. It looks to do that shortly outside my window.

[tron777]

Normal progressive issues with the 12Z GFS today. Can't argue with it since we have no blocking. Too much energy in the flow so it cannot slow down. No changes to the forecast from looking at this model. For the next week and some change, the pattern is zzzzzzz Just little rain showers or a mood flake or two from time to time showing up.

[tron777]

Now the GFS does show the two low idea that Tim and I were discussing earlier today. This is for the 17-18th time period. It's the Kitchen Sink Storm Part 2 on this run of the GFS.

[tron777]

12Z CMC has one big storm so the low tracks to our West. Rain to snow and it's over. GEFS Members are 50/50. Half have the GFS 2 low idea and the other half have the 1 low CMC idea. Just like Feb 2-4th for the 17-18th system, again, you're going to want the two low idea if you want wintry weather. We run the risk of ice and sleet again per the OP GFS.

[airwolf76]

historically the first 2 weeks of February are your snowiest time of the year, not gonna happen this year it doesn't appear. maybe we can cash in the second half.

[tron777]

historically the first 2 weeks of February are your snowiest time of the year, not gonna happen this year it doesn't appear. maybe we can cash in the second half.

Februaries as a whole haven't been too bad in recent years. We had the sleet fest. Lots of time to see what else can be cooked up. For now, barring some big whole sale changes, next decent system is around the 17-18th. Smaller minor systems until then.

[tpweather]

Euro is very interesting for later next week

[tpweather]

Hey Joe,your thoughts on next week looking better and better my friend.

[winterstormjoe]

Hey Joe,your thoughts on next week looking better and better my friend.

Hey Tim, it's starting to look that way although especially the Goofus keeps yo yoing back and forth. Hey, as we head in to mid February I haven't heard much on the SSW this winter, I guess it's a non existent event this winter? That would definitely stir up the current +AO and +NAO and weaken it.

[tpweather]

Joe, really has been non existent. The pv itself especially the last month of so has sort of stretched out some so you get pieces of arctic air but nothing earth shattering. Btw you don't see this much in early Feb but an excessive heat warning for parts of southern California. They have been so dry and warm down there this winter with one brief episode of rain. Going to get hot unless they can cash in on their normal second rainy season which is usually mid-March-mid April.

[tron777]

Sun night, the Euro has some light snow with a clipper. then for Thurs / Fri of next week, the model brings in a slow moving frontal boundary and you'd think a wave or two would track along it. But nope, we get some heavy rain on Thurs ahead of the front and mood flakes behind it. The Euro is a cross between the GFS and CMC ideas I guess. All models really have their own ideas right now for the end of next week anyway so we need more time on that one. For now... I don't expect much precip or weather until later next week. Little clippers buzzing on by until then are all I expect to see and it isn't much.

Agree with the talk about the SSW. The PV which did start at record weak levels in the early fall has strengthened dramatically throughout the winter season. The PV is still very strong and a late winter SSW is appearing unlikely. So unlike the last two springs, maybe a warmer spring this year? We'll see!

[tpweather]

Sun night, the Euro has some light snow with a clipper. then for Thurs / Fri of next week, the model brings in a slow moving frontal boundary and you'd think a wave or two would track along it. But nope, we get some heavy rain on Thurs ahead of the front and mood flakes behind it. The Euro is a cross between the GFS and CMC ideas I guess. All models really have their own ideas right now for the end of next week anyway so we need more time on that one. For now... I don't expect much precip or weather until later next week. Little clippers buzzing on by until then are all I expect to see and it isn't much.

Agree with the talk about the SSW. The PV which did start at record weak levels in the early fall has strengthened dramatically throughout the winter season. The PV is still very strong and a late winter SSW is appearing unlikely. So unlike the last two springs, maybe a warmer spring this year? We'll see!

Great Posts Les and I agree about next week is just a mix of different outcomes though it does look like some energy in the central part of the country. Concerning spring and I am expecting a warm spring starting late in March. Will this be brought in by severe weather and chances are higher than normal at this time but again I have seen great looking springs in terms of severe weather and we get very little. So again timing key in all aspects of the weather.

[tron777]

Sun night, the Euro has some light snow with a clipper. then for Thurs / Fri of next week, the model brings in a slow moving frontal boundary and you'd think a wave or two would track along it. But nope, we get some heavy rain on Thurs ahead of the front and mood flakes behind it. The Euro is a cross between the GFS and CMC ideas I guess. All models really have their own ideas right now for the end of next week anyway so we need more time on that one. For now... I don't expect much precip or weather until later next week. Little clippers buzzing on by until then are all I expect to see and it isn't much.

Agree with the talk about the SSW. The PV which did start at record weak levels in the early fall has strengthened dramatically throughout the winter season. The PV is still very strong and a late winter SSW is appearing unlikely. So unlike the last two springs, maybe a warmer spring this year? We'll see!

Great Posts Les and I agree about next week is just a mix of different outcomes though it does look like some energy in the central part of the country. Concerning spring and I am expecting a warm spring starting late in March. Will this be brought in by severe weather and chances are higher than normal at this time but again I have seen great looking springs in terms of severe weather and we get very little. So again timing key in all aspects of the weather.

Thanks Tim! What interests me the most for spring severe wx interests are the following: Does the active pattern continue? Do we get the -PNA pattern to come back ala MJO Phases, 4, 5, 6? The drought to our West... does it expand or intensify in coverage? Could allow for dry lines to pernitrate further eastward as a result.

EDIT: Concerning drought, I haven't checked in a while. Take a look at how much of the country is abnormally dry or in drought.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

[tpweather]

Concerning Friday and we are starting to see this on the models and getting into the coverage of the short term models but precip totals are going up with this front. No doubt rain for Friday but the cold front is rather strong and can we changeover to some light snow before it moves southward. Still not 100p/c out of the woods with a wave of low pressure forming but again most likely that would be south of here.