Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022

[tpweather]

Matt that was very funny

[Bgoney]

Hey Tim, I think 8-12 is a good number above that 5-8" on the map , but I hope we can those higher numbers down further for our Dayon people

[MVWxObserver]

At least now in the frz rain dept, ILN is calling for less than a tenth of accretion for up this way.

Prayers and thoughts with all from CO, NM to ME with this storm for safety and warmth i.e. etc.

Last Feb here in Greenville we got around 11 inches from a storm and are all prepped for Fri for another clear out.

[tpweather]

Hey Tim, I think 8-12 is a good number above that 5-8" on the map , but I hope we can those higher numbers down further for our Dayon people

Bgoney, just a close call and trying to figure out Thursday afternoon where that heavy snow setup is going to be . I believe we are both on the same page but I have maybe 20 miles further south.

[MVWxObserver]

Sleet is better then the ice, but it's still going to be a *itch to remove lol

Indeed with the cold temperatures Saturday, going to need a pick axe

I’m just going to get out a blowtorch!

I have one that I use to burn weeds in pavement or gravel. Would work on ice too!

Hey Bo,

My dad may have to use his blowtorch on our mix / snowed over trash cart lid on Fri morning as I'm rolling it out to a corner at the foot of our driveway tomorrow.

I even wonder if Rumpke crews i.e. will be able to get out and about for their routes on Thurs and Fri.

[tron777]

Good evening all! 18Z Euro is running, let's take a look...

[BookNerdCarp]

It’s here!

[tron777]

18Z Euro text data, same ole, same ole. Rain, frz rain, sleet, then snow for CVG.

Code: Select all

CVG

THU 12Z 03-FEB  -1.5     2.7    1023      97      99    0.19     563     545    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -2.3     1.5    1023      95      95    0.45     564     545    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -4.2    -1.2    1025      89      98    0.48     564     544    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -5.5    -2.5    1026      83     100    0.12     563     542    
FRI 12Z 04-FEB  -7.3    -4.8    1028      82     100    0.06     559     538    
FRI 18Z 04-FEB  -5.9    -7.4    1030      69      98    0.05     555     533  

HAO

THU 12Z 03-FEB  -2.1     1.4    1024      93      99    0.15     562     543    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -2.8     0.4    1025      87      97    0.32     563     544    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -4.7    -2.4    1026      90      98    0.39     563     543    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -6.1    -3.5    1027      82      99    0.11     562     541    
FRI 12Z 04-FEB  -7.7    -5.5    1028      78     100    0.05     558     536    
FRI 18Z 04-FEB  -7.1    -7.8    1030      72      94    0.05     554     531  

MGY

THU 06Z 03-FEB  -0.1     1.7    1020      95      96    0.31     560     544    
THU 12Z 03-FEB  -3.2    -0.6    1025      89      99    0.18     561     542    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -4.1    -1.3    1026      88      99    0.25     562     541    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -5.5    -3.5    1027      87      98    0.31     562     541    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -7.3    -4.5    1028      84      98    0.09     560     539    
FRI 12Z 04-FEB  -9.1    -6.1    1029      79      98    0.04     557     535    
FRI 18Z 04-FEB  -8.9    -8.2    1030      82      86    0.02     553     530 

DAY

THU 12Z 03-FEB  -1.6     1.2    1024      93      99    0.14     562     543    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -2.2     0.1    1025      86      99    0.29     562     543    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -4.3    -2.3    1025      86      98    0.42     562     543    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -5.4    -3.4    1026      84      99    0.14     561     541    
FRI 12Z 04-FEB  -7.3    -5.3    1027      83     100    0.06     558     537    
FRI 18Z 04-FEB  -7.4    -7.7    1028      74      97    0.04     553     532 

CMH

THU 18Z 03-FEB  -0.2     4.6    1022      99      96    0.45     566     549    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -1.8     2.3    1022      98      99    0.74     567     550    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -3.3     0.7    1024      95      99    0.33     566     547    
FRI 12Z 04-FEB  -4.8    -1.8    1025      87      98    0.15     562     543    
FRI 18Z 04-FEB  -5.4    -5.8    1028      73      99    0.08     558     536 

[tron777]

For those keeping track at home.

fztp.gif

[snowbo]

How does the position of the front compared to what the models are showing?

[tron777]

Reports of rain changing to snow now in Western ILL, Peoria, IL.

[tron777]

How does the position of the front compared to what the models are showing?

Looks fine to me. 18Z GFS has snow in Western ILL and temps in the 20s by 8pm and it's matching it with the reports coming in of the rain changing to snow there now.

[tron777]

RGEM also has that "tail" dropping 1-2" on Friday across the Cincy Tri-state area. Euro / GFS / CMC have it. ILN has us dry on Fri and the warning expiring at 7am Fri. If this still shows up tomorrow, it should be extended IMO.

[tron777]

18Z GEFS Snowfall Mean and Members

GEFS.png

GEFSMembers.png

[mainevilleweather]

Ensemble 13 please

[tron777]

Ensemble 13 please

Half of 'em look good for the Metro.

[tron777]

SnowPeakingAtYou.gif

[tron777]

I figured it's time to break 'em out! Both are needed for the forum coverage area with this system!

Hammer Time.JPG

Ice Ice Baby.JPG

[tron777]

WPC Threats Map as of 4pm.

WPC.jpg

[mainevilleweather]

Ensemble 13 please

Half of 'em look good for the Metro.

But that's my favorite

[Browneyedgirl]

Ensemble 13 please

Half of 'em look good for the Metro.

But that's my favorite

Mine too. I’ll second your vote.

[tron777]

MD issued for heavy snow now for Northern MO and Western ILL.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0102.html

[Pete1]

I figured it's time to break 'em out! Both are needed for the forum coverage area with this system!


Hammer Time.JPG


Ice Ice Baby.JPG

There they are!!!!! Its officially game on now!!!

[tron777]

Kind of long range still for the HRRR, but 0Z run has N Cincy burbs and I-70 Crew changing over Wed night after midnight thru 6am from NW to SE across the area. For the Metro and CVG Land area from NW to SE in the 6am to 9am time period Thurs.

[mainevilleweather]

Kind of long range still for the HRRR, but 0Z run has N Cincy burbs and I-70 Crew changing over Wed night after midnight thru 6am from NW to SE across the area. For the Metro and CVG Land area from NW to SE in the 6am to 9am time period Thurs.

Looks like another sleet fest model.