Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022

[fyrfyter]

ILN doesn’t seem too impressed as I read it.

ILN doesn’t know what to tell you will happen. So they don’t have a forecast that they can add to the warning.

[MJSun]

ILN doesn’t seem too impressed as I read it.

ILN doesn’t know what to tell you will happen. So they don’t have a forecast that they can add to the warning.

Water in some form will fall from the sky at some point for some people, the air will be some temperature during this time.

[jjfight]

Come on GFS......

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[tpweather]

Come on GFS......

braveheart-hold.gif

Love that movie

[MattyD]

Come on GFS......

braveheart-hold.gif

Yes!!!
Love that movie

[tpweather]

GFS has started

[young pup]

Sleet fest.....


nam-218-all-ohio-sleet_total-3954400.png

SOB Oh well.

[Bgoney]

ILN has been leaning to the NAM and a EU blend from the get go with their map release yesterday , and now latest Nam is even Less snow , so yea, they're holding on to the cards they have for now

[young pup]

One big storm.

one big storm.png

[fyrfyter]

GFS has freezing rain at 1a, sleet at 4a, then snow at 7p. Looks like little ice, but 4” of sleet and 6” of snow.

[jjfight]

Untrained eye says 18z GFS has a little longer period of sleet than 12z, but there is still a changeover to snow Thursday evening with more on the way....

[cloudy72]

So yes GFS still shows lots of snow on the 10:1, but it concerns me when you look at the soundings in that 800-850 mb layer on Thursday in the peak of wave two it flirts with the zero line even on the GFS. Very worried about a sleet fest here as we have discussed already LOL

[heybert00]

My concern is looking at things historically. How often does the cold air win out in these overriding events in our area? More often than not the warm air is undermodeled. If I where guessing I would say the southern extent of the snowfall accumulations will be cut down by the warm air. I really hope I'm wrong. The GFS caught onto something yesterday morning and hads not budged. It's been very consistent.

.

I also recall other storms in the last few years that were supposed to be big snow makers and ended up with more sleet that we thought. The mantra then was "Warm Air Always Wins", and unless this is a very special storm, we should keep that in mind. Not trying to be a Debbie Downer, but that is what this casual observer has observed over the years. I would much rather have a bunch of sleet and snow versus ICE. Keeping my fingers crossed. Thanks for the great info everyone!!

[Browneyedgirl]

So does that mean less freezing rain? I’d love to keep my trees and power.

Thanks for the great info!

[tron777]

18Z GFS text data

Code: Select all

CVG

THU 06Z 03-FEB   0.0     3.0    1021      95      97    0.27     562     545    
THU 12Z 03-FEB  -2.9     2.1    1024      94      95    0.18     563     544    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -4.6     1.6    1024      94      97    0.28     564     545    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -6.5    -1.3    1024      95      98    0.76     563     544    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -7.5    -3.2    1026      94      95    0.21     561     541    
FRI 12Z 04-FEB  -8.9    -5.7    1029      95      96    0.07     557     535    
FRI 18Z 04-FEB  -5.5    -7.0    1031      86      73    0.02     555     531  

HAO

THU 06Z 03-FEB  -1.7     2.5    1022      93      96    0.26     561     544    
THU 12Z 03-FEB  -3.7     0.5    1025      92      97    0.15     562     542    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -5.2    -0.1    1025      95      98    0.26     563     543    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -7.0    -2.2    1025      94      98    0.66     562     543    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -8.1    -4.3    1027      93      97    0.17     560     539    
FRI 12Z 04-FEB  -9.4    -6.2    1029      94      95    0.06     556     534    
FRI 18Z 04-FEB  -6.6    -7.7    1031      83      68    0.01     554     530 

MGY

THU 06Z 03-FEB  -2.4     2.0    1022      93      97    0.25     561     544    
THU 12Z 03-FEB  -4.3    -0.6    1026      93      98    0.16     561     541    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -5.6    -1.0    1025      95      98    0.23     562     543    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -7.5    -2.7    1026      94      97    0.61     562     542    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -8.5    -4.6    1027      93      98    0.16     559     539    
FRI 12Z 04-FEB  -9.8    -6.3    1029      93      92    0.05     556     534    
FRI 18Z 04-FEB  -7.3    -7.9    1031      83      62    0.01     553     529  

DAY

THU 06Z 03-FEB  -3.5     1.2    1023      92      96    0.27     560     542    
THU 12Z 03-FEB  -5.1    -2.3    1026      94      98    0.16     561     540    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -6.0    -3.2    1026      95      98    0.22     562     541    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -8.0    -3.8    1026      94      97    0.51     561     541    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -9.1    -5.3    1027      93      97    0.13     558     538    
FRI 12Z 04-FEB -10.3    -6.7    1030      91      87    0.04     555     533 

CMH

THU 06Z 03-FEB  -1.1     1.9    1022      94      98    0.25     561     544    
THU 12Z 03-FEB  -3.8     0.3    1025      92      98    0.18     562     542    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -4.9    -1.2    1026      93      98    0.16     563     543    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -6.9    -2.5    1025      95      98    0.61     562     542    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -8.4    -4.2    1026      94      97    0.26     560     540    
FRI 12Z 04-FEB  -9.5    -6.3    1028      95      95    0.07     556     535    
FRI 18Z 04-FEB  -6.1    -7.8    1030      87      59    0.02     552     530    

FGX

THU 18Z 03-FEB  -1.8     4.7    1021      96      99    0.25     566     550    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -4.2     1.2    1022      95      99    0.95     566     548    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -6.3     0.0    1023      95      99    0.48     564     546    
FRI 12Z 04-FEB  -8.0    -3.4    1027      96      98    0.10     560     540    
FRI 18Z 04-FEB  -4.6    -6.3    1030      92      90    0.05     557     534    
SAT 00Z 05-FEB -12.0    -6.9    1033      98      75    0.01     556     530 

[Bgoney]

Alright WTH i'll give it a shot with a "first Call" snow map. Before the snow, Sleet/FR mix .30-.70 qpf. Freezing rain for SE crew .25-.50"

sn2.PNG

[snowbo]

Alright WTH i'll give it a shot with a "first Call" snow map. Before the snow Sleet/FR mix .30-.70 qpf. Freezing rain for SE crew .25-.50"



sn2.PNG

Thanks for the love Bgoney....I'm finally map worthy!

[tron777]

I think the map looks great Bgoney! I was going to make a map after dinner but might not really have to after looking at that. Sleet / frz rain is the major precip type esp down here. I-70 Crew can go either way from that to hvy snow. N tier of counties and Eric are locked in!

[BookNerdCarp]

What’s thoughts on my area. Frz rain and sleet amounts. Guesstimate

[tron777]

First wave already getting its act together:

Wave1.png

[Bgoney]

I think the map looks great Bgoney! I was going to make a map after dinner but might not really have to after looking at that. Sleet / frz rain is the major precip type esp down here. I-70 Crew can go either way from that to hvy snow. N tier of counties and Eric are locked in!

I had 3 different ones I made after 12z, this one made the cut

[tron777]

What’s thoughts on my area. Frz rain and sleet amounts. Guesstimate

I think 1/4" of ice is likely. 1/2" worst case scenario. Sleet Couple of inches worst case.

[BookNerdCarp]

What’s thoughts on my area. Frz rain and sleet amounts. Guesstimate

I think 1/4" of ice is likely. 1/2" worst case scenario. Sleet Couple of inches worst case.

About what I was thinking. Maybe inch or two snow at end.

[tpweather]

Good Evening and Les when is the next model run lol. A few things to look over the past 24 hours and here are my thoughts on what may happen. I would draw a map but that is not pretty. What we have seen from most models is the colder air makes a push further south and east than the forecast 24 hours ago. Saying that the cold air is very dense and after this first wave how far south and east before we start to feel the influence from the second wave.. I will continue to harp on the time in between the waves because I believe it is a major part of the forecast. Next the second wave though not gaining much strength over the past 24 hours it does seem to have more moisture and this can translate a few thousand feet above the ground. Here is another point does the low pressure stay further south like the gfs shows or is more in line with the nam and yes there is a difference there in where the low goes. Precip types and I know a lot of the data is supporting sleet and believe I prefer that over frz/rain all the time but that usually happens when we are at the height of the system. At the moment this looks to be Thursday Afternoon locally and during the day how far has temps dropped during this time. I am giving into the sleet somewhat but hesitant though the data is becoming increasing likely there is going to be an area that is stuck in the sleet fest for several hours. I am not exactly sure where that is at the moment but what I do believe is that the area just north of the sleet is going to get pounded with heavy snow and that could be within 30 miles of CVG. Indy will get their snow but the second wave may be far enough away from them that they end up with maybe 10 inches instead of 15 as an example. How much frz/rain is tricky because we know if the rain is to heavy it may have a harder time sticking to surfaces. The problem here is it looks like when the frz/rain is falling the precip is not to heavy so this can cause a major ice problem on the roads especially as temps fall during the day. Next problem will be the wind and that will pick up later in the day Thursday and this can be a problem if the ice does form and could see power lines down.

So in the end I sort of like Bgoney's map though I believe I would up the amounts by about 1 inch or so with each area except the northwest part of this map I may boost that up to a 8-12 inch possible total. Thanks for reading my short novel and I gladly sign this if needed lol.

[BookNerdCarp]

Good Evening and Les when is the next model run lol. A few things to look over the past 24 hours and here are my thoughts on what may happen. I would draw a map but that is not pretty. What we have seen from most models is the colder air makes a push further south and east than the forecast 24 hours ago. Saying that the cold air is very dense and after this first wave how far south and east before we start to feel the influence from the second wave.. I will continue to harp on the time in between the waves because I believe it is a major part of the forecast. Next the second wave though not gaining much strength over the past 24 hours it does seem to have more moisture and this can translate a few thousand feet above the ground. Here is another point does the low pressure stay further south like the gfs shows or is more in line with the nam and yes there is a difference there in where the low goes. Precip types and I know a lot of the data is supporting sleet and believe I prefer that over frz/rain all the time but that usually happens when we are at the height of the system. At the moment this looks to be Thursday Afternoon locally and during the day how far has temps dropped during this time. I am giving into the sleet somewhat but hesitant though the data is becoming increasing likely there is going to be an area that is stuck in the sleet fest for several hours. I am not exactly sure where that is at the moment but what I do believe is that the area just north of the sleet is going to get pounded with heavy snow and that could be within 30 miles of CVG. Indy will get their snow but the second wave may be far enough away from them that they end up with maybe 10 inches instead of 15 as an example. How much frz/rain is tricky because we know if the rain is to heavy it may have a harder time sticking to surfaces. The problem here is it looks like when the frz/rain is falling the precip is not to heavy so this can cause a major ice problem on the roads especially as temps fall during the day. Next problem will be the wind and that will pick up later in the day Thursday and this can be a problem if the ice does form and could see power lines down.

So in the end I sort of like Bgoney's map though I believe I would up the amounts by about 1 inch or so with each area except the northwest part of this map I may boost that up to a 8-12 inch possible total. Thanks for reading my short novel and I gladly sign this if needed lol.

The Cliff Notes version of your book - "Fun Times Ahead"