Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022

[cloudy72]

Can someone post ice and kuchera maps please, thanks!

Euro Kuchera.png

Euro Freezing Rain.png

[mainevilleweather]

To me it seems like the Euro and NAM have been trending towards the colder solution of the GFS over the last two days. That must mean they are on to something.

[cloudy72]

So it seems to be pretty set in stone that:

-- Heaviest axis of snow will fall from central MO/IL to northern IN and northwest OH
-- Freezing rain falling across central/northern KY into SE OH.
-- We are in-between with some ice and some snow. Depending on how fast (or slow) the upper level cold air advects in will determine how much snow or sleet we will get.

That is how I see things now.

[tron777]

12z Euro text data

Code: Select all

CVG

THU 12Z 03-FEB  -1.6     3.3    1022      97      88    0.26     563     546    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -2.4     1.0    1022      95      98    0.58     564     546    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -4.2    -2.1    1025      87      97    0.35     563     544    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -5.8    -3.8    1028      82      97    0.06     562     540    
FRI 12Z 04-FEB  -7.4    -5.7    1029      79      99    0.05     559     536  
FRI 18Z 04-FEB  -7.3    -8.1    1031      71      95    0.04     554     530 

HAO

THU 12Z 03-FEB  -2.2     2.2    1023      92      93    0.19     562     544    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -3.0     0.0    1023      89      98    0.44     563     545    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -4.6    -3.2    1026      87      95    0.27     562     542    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -6.4    -4.6    1028      81      93    0.04     561     539    
FRI 12Z 04-FEB  -7.9    -6.3    1030      79      96    0.03     558     535    
FRI 18Z 04-FEB  -8.2    -8.4    1032      73      88    0.02     553     529 

MGY

THU 12Z 03-FEB  -2.6     1.5    1023      91      95    0.19     562     543    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -3.4    -0.4    1023      89      98    0.41     562     544    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -5.3    -3.5    1026      87      94    0.29     562     541    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -7.1    -4.8    1028      83      92    0.04     560     538    
FRI 12Z 04-FEB  -8.8    -6.5    1030      80      93    0.02     557     535    
FRI 18Z 04-FEB  -8.9    -8.6    1032      77      83    0.02     553     529  

DAY

THU 06Z 03-FEB  -0.9     1.9    1021      94      97    0.34     561     544    
THU 12Z 03-FEB  -3.3     0.2    1024      90      95    0.19     561     542    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -4.1    -1.3    1024      89      98    0.35     562     543    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -5.9    -4.2    1027      86      93    0.24     561     540    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -7.7    -5.3    1029      83      89    0.03     559     537    
FRI 12Z 04-FEB  -9.5    -6.9    1030      80      86    0.01     557     533    
FRI 18Z 04-FEB  -9.6    -8.8    1032      82      72    0.01     552     528   

CMH

THU 12Z 03-FEB  -1.8     1.5    1024      92      99    0.19     562     544    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -2.6     0.5    1023      90      97    0.39     562     544    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -4.7    -2.9    1025      85      97    0.46     562     542    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -6.2    -4.4    1027      83      95    0.05     560     539    
FRI 12Z 04-FEB  -8.1    -6.1    1029      82      95    0.03     558     535    
FRI 18Z 04-FEB  -8.1    -8.5    1030      75      88    0.02     553     530    
SAT 00Z 05-FEB -11.7   -10.7    1032      81       4    0.01     550     525    

FGX

THU 18Z 03-FEB  -0.2     4.4    1020      99      99    0.60     566     551    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -2.3     1.8    1022      97      98    0.65     566     549    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -4.0    -0.8    1025      91      99    0.26     565     545    
FRI 12Z 04-FEB  -5.5    -3.2    1027      83      98    0.10     562     541    
FRI 18Z 04-FEB  -6.0    -6.7    1030      71      98    0.04     557     534  

[BookNerdCarp]

just eyeballing the maps it look like .50+ ice and 3 to 4 inches snow in my hood.

[tron777]

To me it seems like the Euro and NAM have been trending towards the colder solution of the GFS over the last two days. That must mean they are on to something.

I agree. Canadian and RGEM are the warmer outlier with thermals and surface temps. NAM is warmer with thermals too but does changeover faster like GFS and Euro so they all 3 match up well with surface temps.

[tron777]

Euro def took a nod towards the GFS. Perfect!

[tron777]

Euro brought the upper low back too on this run to continue some festive light snow on Friday. That feature has been on and off on guidance for days.

[tron777]

57 today at CVG. Can we make a run at 60?

[tpweather]

Euro brought the upper low back too on this run to continue some festive light snow on Friday. That feature has been on and off on guidance for days.

Agree Les and the CMC shows this as well. The second wave is a little further south and a little weaker which is really looking good at the moment.

[cloudy72]

Dang it's even 54 here!

[tron777]

Get the grills fired up for supper folks! Then get right back here to the forum!

[tron777]

Anybody care to make a call? I may try and put something out this evening.

[fyrfyter]

Euro shows, 7 hours of freezing rain, starting at 4am, then ~2-3 hours of sleet and then snow.

.25-.5” of ice, 1-2” sleet, 4-6” of snow. That’s a call for now!

[rhodesman88]

Come on King! Give Les what he needs to post BOTH rappers!!!!

There he is!!!

[BookNerdCarp]

Euro shows, 7 hours of freezing rain, starting at 4am, then ~2-3 hours of sleet and then snow.

.25-.5” of ice, 1-2” sleet, 4-6” of snow. That’s a call for now!

that in and of itself is a real mess!!

[fyrfyter]

Euro shows, 7 hours of freezing rain, starting at 4am, then ~2-3 hours of sleet and then snow.

.25-.5” of ice, 1-2” sleet, 4-6” of snow. That’s a call for now!

that in and of itself is a real mess!!

That it is, but a call has to be made at some point.

[dce]

What can you do if you're the NWS making a forecast for Cincinnati? You have different models showing anywhere from about 0-14 inches of snow. Sometimes we are pretty hard on them for missing a winter storm forecast, but geesh

[tron777]

59 now... we'll eclipse 60 down here. Wow!

[MJSun]

Euro shows, 7 hours of freezing rain, starting at 4am, then ~2-3 hours of sleet and then snow.

.25-.5” of ice, 1-2” sleet, 4-6” of snow. That’s a call for now!

4am on Thursday?

[fyrfyter]

Euro shows, 7 hours of freezing rain, starting at 4am, then ~2-3 hours of sleet and then snow.

.25-.5” of ice, 1-2” sleet, 4-6” of snow. That’s a call for now!

4am on Thursday?

Yes.

[tron777]

Radar already shows moisture return from the Gulf ahead of the frontal boundary. SPC meso page shows that the Gulf is wide open for business.

[BookNerdCarp]

I'm anxiously waiting CB's First Call Map

[tron777]

I'm anxiously waiting CB's First Call Map

Just checked Twitter, nothing yet.

[cloudy72]

56 - heck we may even flirt with 60 up here! LOL