Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022

[tron777]

Low tracks into SE KY and WVA so not a lot of snow on this run. Going to be ice and sleet for most. Worse for I-70 Crew of course.

[fyrfyter]

ILN has upgraded furthest North portions to a Warning.

DBAC18F9-B3B1-47FB-B450-C8C962E63153.jpeg

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwa ... %20warning

[Trevor]

Total sleet fest on the NAM. Very reminiscent of last February. Keep in mind, even a sleet fest would be impactful on travel as temperatures fall. BUT it is the most desirable outcome when it comes to impact.

[snowlover]

Observations here from Grandpa Wooly at the woodpile. The squirrels are working fast and furious in pairs, the geese are in the corn, and the deer are huddled up in big herds and eating everything in sight. Grandpa Woolies witching sticks are rattling on their own and that is a troubling sign of a lot going on. Grandma Wooly is gathering the grub for a good stay put time. The sky had good hints of red which is a sign all in its own. Now the moles were super active before the last ground freeze which means the next big storm could be an overachiever . . . they sure were! Now it could be more rain, more snow, more sleet or more ice . . .this one could over achieve for some. Grandpa Wooly's advice on this one is to get your woodpile covered early.

I don't know about anyone else, but I thoroughly enjoy the "Updates from the woodpile from Grandpa Wooly". Keep 'em coming.

[cloudy72]

Like Doug I am encouraged by the southward movement in the snowfall projections on the NAM. It doesn't have to go far for us I-70 folk....but would like to see it jog even further south to get more posters involved! Right now Eric looks like the big winner with potential of 10"+ in his hood.

[Trevor]

Time for the GFS to start up.

[tron777]

RGEM snow map was non-existent for most of us so here's the ice map. Def the warmest solution thus far today.

RGEMIce.png

[weatherbeast45107]

Time for the GFS to start up.

Please hold your snowy ground GFS!! Do not cave! You can do it!!!

[winterstormjoe]

RGEM snow map was non-existent for most of us so here's the ice map. Def the warmest solution thus far today.


RGEMIce.png

Les, how reliable has the RGEM been this winter?

[tron777]

RGEM snow map was non-existent for most of us so here's the ice map. Def the warmest solution thus far today.


RGEMIce.png

Les, how reliable has the RGEM been this winter?

It hasn't been as good as in years past. Doesn't mean that it can't be right though. Currently, it is an outlier solution.

[fyrfyter]

GFS trying to bring the ice earlier.

[CINCINNATI01]

I feel bad for the weatherman at this point these models are terrible you won't know what's coming till day of

[fyrfyter]

.21 of ice, then heavy sleet, about 4a-4p Thursday.

[jjfight]

By 7pm Thursday all snow for the metro....

[Bgoney]

GFS not budging

[cloudy72]

GFS still looking lovely for snow lovers.

That pesky 800 mb (780-820 ish) level will be key IMO in where the sleet/snow line setups. That will be the main mesoscale feature we will need to monitor when the storm hits to see where the sleet/snow line will be.

[tron777]

12Z GFS very similar to 6Z. The solution should hold.

[fyrfyter]

Looks like .21” of ice, probably 1-3” of sleet over 12 hours, then it snows until 4a Friday, with 10-12” - wowzers!

[tron777]

GFSIce.png

GFSSnow.png

[weatherbeast45107]

GFSIce.png


GFSSnow.png

A thing of beauty!!

[BookNerdCarp]

Let's bump that GFS about 35 miles S/SE please

[weatherbeast45107]

Let's bump that GFS about 35 miles S/SE please

Praying with you Matto!!!!

[fyrfyter]

Saturday morning temps-

98C203DE-F555-4EA8-B2AA-7142FEC494B3.jpeg

[cloudy72]

Yes it will be curious to see what the mercury dips to Friday night if we do get that big snowpack. Def below zero for many.

[tron777]

Saturday morning temps-

98C203DE-F555-4EA8-B2AA-7142FEC494B3.jpeg

:wow:

I mentioned that this morning after the 6Z run. If we get the deep snow cover that the GFS is showing, -5 to -10 easy Sat morning.