Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022

[Bgoney]

NAM looks much better for north of 71

[cloudy72]

12z NAM def colder....changes to snow at MGY between 9z-12z THU

[cloudy72]

Also looks a bit slower with wave two which may allow more arctic air to flow in.

[Bgoney]

Still holding on to sleet/ice along 71 through late afternoon

[cloudy72]

Yeah def on the snow sleet fence here in my hood.....as always LOL

[Bgoney]

NAM not budging much from previos runs , sleet /freezing rain galore

[tron777]

NAM continuing the sleet and frz rain fest for most of AV country though. The cold undercuts the surface like the other models but not over our heads like the GFS does. Do not yet know which model is handling thermals better. That might come down to a nowcast honestly.

[Bgoney]

850s at 4pm

8504.PNG

[winterstormjoe]

I thing that strong Arctic High in the northern plains will nudge this cold front a little more south with today's and early tomorrow's runs. Then "nowcasting" will be a big tool beginning when the rain moves in tomorrow morning to see where the cold front is actually moving through observations. The waves moving NE along the front will be the key as to bumping it a tad NW or not. But I've seen this setup before and more snow may be the way to go as long as the second wave doesn't get too strong. NO ICE PLEASE!

[tron777]

1 to 1.25" of QPF with temps in the mid 20s at CVG on Thurs... looking very icy, not good.

[Bgoney]

Dang , held on to sleet /FZ nearly the whole time south of 71

[tron777]

Then we get a bunch of sleet with temps in the low 20s Thurs evening at CVG.. great! This is going to be so tough to deal with to clear your own driveway, cars, etc.

[tron777]

Current takeways...

Colder and south trends are real
Plenty of moisture
Differences in the handling of the thermal profile. Model camps either have a warm nose aloft or the cold is much faster in cooling the entire column and more snow.

That's where my mind is currently.

[Bgoney]

Actually a warm layer that hangs on close to Dayton.

[mainevilleweather]

A 50 miles shift on the cold and we are in business!

[cloudy72]

The I-70 snow wall is real...at least in Ohio. LOL

sn10_acc.us_state_oh.png

[tron777]

NAM ICE: So with that map in mind, big ole sleet fest for CVG. I keep feeling Feb of 2021 reappearing again.

NAMIce.png

[mainevilleweather]

Les,
How good is the NAM with thermals compared to the GFS?

[dce]

This is the farthest south the NAM has been with the snowfield. The trend is still our friend, in my opinion.

[tron777]

12Z NAM Text data

Code: Select all

CVG

THU  1A 03-FEB   0.0     3.4    1021      94      97    0.26     562     545    
THU  7A 03-FEB  -3.2     1.6    1026      86      96    0.10     563     543    
THU  1P 03-FEB  -3.0     4.0    1023      85      97    0.12     564     546    
THU  7P 03-FEB  -5.5     0.2    1019      89      99    0.89     564     550    
FRI  1A 04-FEB  -6.2    -1.2    1021      85      98    0.46     560     544    
FRI  7A 04-FEB  -7.6    -4.1    1024      83      98    0.04     557     538  

HAO

THU  1A 03-FEB  -0.9     2.7    1022      89      98    0.24     561     544    
THU  7A 03-FEB  -3.8    -0.2    1027      86      98    0.09     562     541    
THU  1P 03-FEB  -3.8     0.2    1025      84      97    0.11     563     544    
THU  7P 03-FEB  -6.3     0.0    1020      88      99    0.89     564     549    
FRI  1A 04-FEB  -6.9    -2.8    1021      85      98    0.50     560     543    
FRI  7A 04-FEB  -8.2    -4.8    1024      84      98    0.03     556     537 

MGY

THU  1A 03-FEB  -2.0     2.3    1022      88      98    0.28     561     543    
THU  7A 03-FEB  -4.3    -1.0    1027      86      98    0.12     561     540    
THU  1P 03-FEB  -4.0    -1.0    1025      84      96    0.12     563     543    
THU  7P 03-FEB  -6.6    -0.4    1021      88      98    0.78     563     547    
FRI  1A 04-FEB  -7.5    -3.2    1021      85      98    0.53     559     543    
FRI  7A 04-FEB  -8.9    -5.0    1024      85      98    0.03     556     537 

DAY

THU  1A 03-FEB  -3.0     1.0    1023      88      97    0.27     560     542    
THU  7A 03-FEB  -5.1    -2.7    1028      87      99    0.15     561     539    
THU  1P 03-FEB  -5.1    -3.0    1026      86      96    0.14     562     542    
THU  7P 03-FEB  -7.2    -2.0    1022      89      98    0.65     562     545    
FRI  1A 04-FEB  -8.2    -5.0    1022      85      98    0.53     558     542    
FRI  7A 04-FEB  -9.6    -5.6    1024      85      97    0.02     555     536   

CMH

THU  1A 03-FEB  -1.2     2.3    1022      91      97    0.30     561     543    
THU  7A 03-FEB  -4.3    -1.0    1027      86      98    0.22     562     540    
THU  1P 03-FEB  -4.2    -1.6    1027      86      97    0.08     562     542    
THU  7P 03-FEB  -5.1    -0.6    1022      89      98    0.64     563     546    
FRI  1A 04-FEB  -7.5    -0.9    1020      86      98    0.66     560     545    
FRI  7A 04-FEB  -8.7    -3.9    1022      86      98    0.07     556     539    
FRI  1P 04-FEB  -7.3    -7.1    1025      85      92    0.01     551     531   

FGX

THU  7A 03-FEB  -1.1     5.3    1024      92      85    0.30     565     547    
THU  1P 03-FEB  -1.6     6.2    1022      89      86    0.16     567     550    
THU  7P 03-FEB  -2.5     6.5    1017      92      99    0.53     567     554    
FRI  1A 04-FEB  -3.2     6.3    1017      90      92    0.93     564     551    
FRI  7A 04-FEB  -6.4    -0.7    1022      87      68    0.06     560     543    
FRI  1P 04-FEB  -5.9    -6.0    1026      84      97    0.01     556     536    

[MattyD]

I agree on this feels like Feb 2021

[tron777]

Les,
How good is the NAM with thermals compared to the GFS?

It depends on the storm and the set up. Last Feb it was correct in showing the sleet fest where the GFS was wrong in keeping us snowy. The NAM can be wrong or it can be right this time. We just don't yet know. I would keep both solutions in mind for the moment.

[tron777]

3KM NAM by Thurs evening is colder then the regular NAM. The snow / ice line is a couple rows of counties further to the south. It has I-70 Crew snowing where the regular NAM was still sleeting.

[Woolyworm]

Observations here from Grandpa Wooly at the woodpile. The squirrels are working fast and furious in pairs, the geese are in the corn, and the deer are huddled up in big herds and eating everything in sight. Grandpa Woolies witching sticks are rattling on their own and that is a troubling sign of a lot going on. Grandma Wooly is gathering the grub for a good stay put time. The sky had good hints of red which is a sign all in its own. Now the moles were super active before the last ground freeze which means the next big storm could be an overachiever . . . they sure were! Now it could be more rain, more snow, more sleet or more ice . . .this one could over achieve for some. Grandpa Wooly's advice on this one is to get your woodpile covered early.

[tron777]

RGEM is still not budging with the warmer outcome. CVG does not changeover until Thurs morning. At 8am, we are still raining at CVG and so is the Metro. N burbs on north bound as well as I-70 Crew are sleeting / frz rain. CVG does not change over until late morning or midday.