Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022

[4SeaSonS]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
254 AM EST Tue Feb 1 2022

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>093-OHZ063>065-070>074-077>080-011600-
/O.EXB.KILN.WS.A.0002.220203T0200Z-220204T1200Z/
Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-
Campbell-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-
Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-
Including the cities of Batesville, Milan, Versailles,
Lawrenceburg, Aurora, Rising Sun, Vevay, Carrollton, Warsaw,
Florence, Burlington, Oakbrook, Covington, Erlanger,
Independence, Newport, Alexandria, Washington Court House,
Circleville, Lancaster, Pickerington, Hamilton, Middletown,
Fairfield, Oxford, Mason, Lebanon, Springboro, Wilmington,
Blanchester, Chillicothe, Logan, Cincinnati, Milford, Georgetown,
Mount Orab, Hillsboro, and Greenfield
254 AM EST Tue Feb 1 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of one
quarter to one half of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of Southeast Indiana, Northern Kentucky and
Central, South Central and Southwest Ohio.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions
could impact the morning or evening commutes Thursday and the
morning commute Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind chills will likely fall below zero
degrees Friday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

[Bgoney]

Up and Adam, rise and shine, Nice update from ILN, everyone should know exactly what their talking about because its exactly what has been discussed on the board the last couple days.


We are now getting within the time range of this event where we
can attempt to talk more about specifics, while still keeping
in mind all of the inherent uncertainties that remain in the
forecast -- most notably the timing/positional placement of the
surface front and the thermal fields aloft and how much those
favorable thermal fields overlap, or don`t, with the steadier
swaths of precip. And what does seem to be more apparent than
perhaps was the case over the past several days is the the dual-
phase aspect that this event will offer. Guidance has come into
better agreement showing two rather distinct surface waves
riding along the WSW-ENE baroclinic zone. The first is expected
to impact the ILN FA beginning perhaps as early as late
Wednesday afternoon in parts of WC OH as the front begins its
long trek south through the region. Guidance has trended
slightly /stronger/ with this initial wave, essentially meaning
two things -- 1) we may end up getting perhaps a degree or two
/warmer/ on Wednesday afternoon into the evening ahead of the
front than was initially thought, and 2) on the backside of this
initial wave, more late Wednesday night into Thursday morning,
the front may be pushed slightly further south than previous
solutions had suggested. This second note, of course, has
obvious implications on the timing of ptype switchover from rain
to a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain, and eventually to
snow Thursday morning through Thursday night.

While the overall guidance has trended a little faster with the
front`s progression south through the region Wednesday night
into Thursday morning (in the wake of the first wave and ahead
of the second wave), it is important to remember that subtle
adjustments to the placement of this tightening baroclinic zone
are still expected as we near the event. And this accounts for a
large chunk of the inherent uncertainty that we have built into
the fcst at this juncture. So while this trends are certainly
significant, it would be imprudent to jump immediately to the
most recent solution given the sensitive nature of these
ingredients that will come together.

With all of this being said, confidence has increased enough in
warning level snow and/or ice amounts being possible/likely
across most, if not all, of the ILN FA. Have therefore expanded
the Winter Storm Watch to cover the entirety of the local area,
with an expectation for an upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning not
far down the line, especially for areas which will begin to see
impacts Wednesday night (locales N/W of I-71 corridor). Areas
across EC IN and WC OH still have the highest probabilities of
seeing significant snowfall accumulations of more than 6 inches,
with a brief period of wintry mix at the onset possible
Wednesday night, which could lead to light ice accumulations in
these areas. Further to the SW closer to the I-71 corridor,
where the front will take longer to reach, the ptype is likely
to remain rain through /at least/ midnight Wednesday night,
perhaps nearing the I-71 corridor by daybreak Thursday. While
this particular period, specifically between midnight and
perhaps 6 AM, may feature relatively lighter precip overall (in
between the two waves), it is during this time where the frontal
progression/placement will become very important for what will
follow during the daytime on Thursday.

The second surface wave will translate along the SE-drifting LL
boundary from Thursday morning through Thursday evening.
Confidence remains high in a large, and potentially heavy, band
of precip to spread back in from the SW through the entire local
area during the daytime on Thursday. Liquid-equivalent
quantities from this second wave alone (i.e. after 6 AM) will
likely exceed 1 inch is many spots, especially near and south of
the I-71 corridor. This is where this particular setup, which
has matched well with impactful CIPS analogs for several days
now, becomes particularly concerning. Because we will have an
arctic front drifting south through the ILN FA, with as much as
a 20-degree temp gradient spanning only a few counties, with as
much as an inch and a half of liquid-equivalent precip on the
line as it does so. And this doesn`t even scratch at the
expectation for the shallow undercutting front to be positioned
ahead of the front aloft, meaning that an extended period of
mixed (sleet/freezing rain) wintry precip seems all but certain
at this point for a large portion of the immediate area. The
less dire solution would be for this setup to yield more sleet
than freezing rain, simply from an impacts perspective, but
hoping for something doesn`t translate to reality. And the
reality of this setup is the potential for a rather lengthy
period of freezing rain, with the highest probabilities near the
I-71 corridor, with surface temps nosediving during the day
Thursday. Further north, the colder/deeper air will allow for
more sleet and even snow, with significant snow amounts likely
across WC OH and EC IN. The southward progression of the
freezing rain/rain line remains to be seen, but the potential is
out there for a significant (i.e. ice accumulations of one
quarter to one half of an inch), if not destructive (i.e. more
than half of an inch), ice event to unfold somewhere in the
local area Thursday into Thursday night before ultimately the
colder air moves in and the precip moves out. Power outages
remain the obvious concern from this setup, perhaps to be made
more problematic by the expectation for temps to drop to near or
below zero by Friday night in many spots, with wind chill
values perhaps as cold as ten degrees below zero.

NNE winds of 20-25 MPH, with gusts to 30 MPH, are expected in
the post-frontal environment Thursday, which could lead to some
blowing snow where the predominant ptype is snow. The stiff NNE
wind could also help ice accretion efficiency in areas where
freezing rain persists longer. Temps bottom out in the single
digits to around 20 degrees Thursday night as even NE KY and
south-central OH see a transition to either a wintry mix or
perhaps even some brief light snow, before the precip ends west
to east late Thursday night

[Bgoney]

GFS is still our best friend, with the EU our pal, and the NAM is still being a jerk.

[Bgoney]

Im sure everyone has seen the GFS, so ill post the 0z EU

0zeu.png

[Bgoney]

Here is why the NAM stays sleet/freezing rian , between the 800-850s temp level it has a stubborn warm layer well into late afternoon thursday , whereas the EU and especially GFS crash the 850s earlier in the morning thursday especially north of 71

jerk.PNG

[Spacejunk]

Another couple clicks south for the GFS with each run. And now the euro joining in? The southern trend is great, I hope it continues. One thing looking likely, someone in the area is going to see a crippling ice storm.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and great post Bgoney. Seems like we have been talking about this system for a week but we are getting closer and many of the ideals we have thrown out there seem to be coming into place. As we talked about this system it really has not been so much that the models were odds with each other except which ones kept the warmer layer which is still coming into play but how quickly to we get the changeover. It looks like the period of time between the 1st wave and 2nd wave is enough to allow the front to move further south and lets hope that continues and my worry was they needed to be further apart in time for us to really get hit hard. Tons to look at once again and with most storms we will have busts on snow totals and probably ice totals but for the most part everyone in the area is going to have significant winter weather plus the winds look to pick up which is never good if ice is forming on power lines.

[mikeyp]

I really like the trends of the overnight models! Hopefully that air can mix in quick and we get more snow then ice!

[tron777]

Good morning all! I will get caught up soon but I wanted you all to know that one of our forum member, JR, IM'ed me that old post for how to read the model text data. I have a new thread created for it on the Weather and Model Education section of the forum for your reading pleasure. Please ask any questions there, thanks!

viewtopic.php?f=13&t=112&p=13238#p13238

[Bgoney]

Good Morning and great post Bgoney. Seems like we have been talking about this system for a week but we are getting closer and many of the ideals we have thrown out there seem to be coming into place. As we talked about this system it really has not been so much that the models were odds with each other except which ones kept the warmer layer which is still coming into play but how quickly to we get the changeover. It looks like the period of time between the 1st wave and 2nd wave is enough to allow the front to move further south and lets hope that continues and my worry was they needed to be further apart in time for us to really get hit hard. Tons to look at once again and with most storms we will have busts on snow totals and probably ice totals but for the most part everyone in the area is going to have significant winter weather plus the winds look to pick up which is never good if ice is forming on power lines.

ITs a tough forecast for most areas but the most difficult is for the corridor centered on I71 about 30-40 miles wide, if the changeover to snow is delayed say an hour , that could mean .25-.30" of qpf , so if it's delayed two , three hrs your talking what the NAM is showing

[airwolf76]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
254 AM EST Tue Feb 1 2022

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>093-OHZ063>065-070>074-077>080-011600-
/O.EXB.KILN.WS.A.0002.220203T0200Z-220204T1200Z/
Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-
Campbell-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-
Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-
Including the cities of Batesville, Milan, Versailles,
Lawrenceburg, Aurora, Rising Sun, Vevay, Carrollton, Warsaw,
Florence, Burlington, Oakbrook, Covington, Erlanger,
Independence, Newport, Alexandria, Washington Court House,
Circleville, Lancaster, Pickerington, Hamilton, Middletown,
Fairfield, Oxford, Mason, Lebanon, Springboro, Wilmington,
Blanchester, Chillicothe, Logan, Cincinnati, Milford, Georgetown,
Mount Orab, Hillsboro, and Greenfield
254 AM EST Tue Feb 1 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of one
quarter to one half of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of Southeast Indiana, Northern Kentucky and
Central, South Central and Southwest Ohio.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions
could impact the morning or evening commutes Thursday and the
morning commute Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind chills will likely fall below zero
degrees Friday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

half inch of Ice ? damn that cant be good . better hope that don't happen

[tpweather]

Good Morning and great post Bgoney. Seems like we have been talking about this system for a week but we are getting closer and many of the ideals we have thrown out there seem to be coming into place. As we talked about this system it really has not been so much that the models were odds with each other except which ones kept the warmer layer which is still coming into play but how quickly to we get the changeover. It looks like the period of time between the 1st wave and 2nd wave is enough to allow the front to move further south and lets hope that continues and my worry was they needed to be further apart in time for us to really get hit hard. Tons to look at once again and with most storms we will have busts on snow totals and probably ice totals but for the most part everyone in the area is going to have significant winter weather plus the winds look to pick up which is never good if ice is forming on power lines.

ITs a tough forecast for most areas but the most difficult is for the corridor centered on I71 about 30-40 miles wide, if the changeover to snow is delayed say an hour , that could mean .25-.30" of qpf , so if it's delayed two , three hrs your talking what the NAM is showing

I agree and this has me worried about a long period of frz/rain with temps slowly falling. If that second wave is stronger then sleet may become more of an issue and really locally I would prefer that instead of plain frz/rain. Tons of moisture with both waves. Snow locally is still a tough call at the moment and could vary quite a bit over a few miles and like you mentioned the I-71 area could be key.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and all the above posts are incorrect and it looks like only rain for us starting on Wednesday. So maybe next week we get lucky.

[tron777]

Good Morning Les and all the above posts are incorrect and it looks like only rain for us starting on Wednesday. So maybe next week we get lucky.

Good morning! I'm looking at the 6Z Euro now. It's coming in!

[tron777]

For CVG, 0Z run basically had 1.29" of QPF falling in frozen form. New 6Z has 1.25" Temps and thermals are basically the same as 0Z. So no changes really to see here with this run.

[tron777]

1.84" of QPF on the 6Z GFS for CVG since the changeover starts 6 hours earlier. We get more snow obviously out of the deal too.

[tpweather]

Just as an extra bonus and will expand more on this topic later this week but the front that is coming through looks to stall somewhere over the southeast and another system looks to form by Sunday. This could give us more precip which would be snow late in the weekend but at the moment I believe we just enjoy the storm headed this way.

[tron777]

The Canadian is a blend between the snowier GFS and icier NAM. We get the ice and sleet for the entire I-71 corridor but the snow lasts longer on Fri, the upper low is back on this run. So even CVG gets 4" of snow on top of the ice and sleet glacier. RGEM also has ice. I will say that even though the CMC and NAM are icier, they have slowly but surely trended south. Euro has too. GFS has the most of course. UKIE still is GFS like giving CVG a foot of snow at 10:1 ratio.

Also... in the last couple of hours, NWS LOU has a winter storm watch out for their entire area. That tells me the south trend is real and if it continues, more snow for more people and less in the way of ice which makes us all happier! Ice and sleet risks for losing power, however are real from the I-71 corridor and points south based on the data. We have to take the warmer thermals into account. remember last Feb with the sleet fest. NAM was right. Not saying it will be here but it always has a chance.

[tron777]

For locations that get the heavier snows with this storm, like 6" plus, expect to go below zero Sat morning. GFS shows what can happen with the deeper snow pack. Even gets CVG down to -11 lol Clean up, esp where frz rain and sleet occurs, is going to be difficult.

[tpweather]

Les as we know once the second wave is starting to head this way many times it sort of stalls everything for several hours. What I mean by that is if you are getting frz/rain it continue for several hours and if you happen to get sleet that could be your precip type for several hours as well. My biggest concern has always been the cold air working to the surface rather quickly and not only does it cause frozen precip issues but remember it will have been raining quite heavy on Wednesday and the roads will be wet and will the break be enough to dry up some of the roads and though the break is expected does not mean no precip is falling but just in a much lighter form for several hours.

[tpweather]

In many ways folks who stay all snow will end up with an easier clean up. Folks who get the ice underneath and then add a few inches of snow with temps falling could have problems for several days. That is just on the roads and we still don't know how much ice may form on power lines and trees. I have seen ice storms that just form on the surface while above just a few feet ice does not form on the higher trees but I have seen it the other way as well. No doubt this will cause problems on the road surfaces with the dense cold air and its just the layer above and how long it stays above frz that can lead to problems with the power lines.

[tron777]

6Z GEFS Members Snow and the Mean, I'm impressed!

GEFSMembers.png

GEFSMean.png

[tron777]

Les as we know once the second wave is starting to head this way many times it sort of stalls everything for several hours. What I mean by that is if you are getting frz/rain it continue for several hours and if you happen to get sleet that could be your precip type for several hours as well. My biggest concern has always been the cold air working to the surface rather quickly and not only does it cause frozen precip issues but remember it will have been raining quite heavy on Wednesday and the roads will be wet and will the break be enough to dry up some of the roads and though the break is expected does not mean no precip is falling but just in a much lighter form for several hours.

Think of the atmosphere in layers from the surface where we live to 850 MB or 5000 ft up. Warmer air in the 30s and 40s up there, and where we are in the U20s to L30s for example. There's your ice and sleet risks. How quickly can the column cool? How strong is the arctic high and how quickly can the cold air undercut the warmth coming up from the SW. Should be very interesting even tomorrow when it's raining, to watch this all unfold.

[Bgoney]

WPC take released a couple hrs ago

prob.PNG

[tron777]

And to think... highs 50 to 55 most areas today But a lot of our big ones are usually warm the day or so preceding the event. Very typical for us.