Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022

tpweather · Post by **tpweather** » Mon Jan 31, 2022 5:01 pm

A good run from the gfs with a slightly further south low and weaker but somewhat faster.

Post by **tron777** » Mon Jan 31, 2022 5:02 pm

Heavy snow now Thurs evening thru into Thurs night towards NKY and folks SE of I-71/ Noticing a quicker exit to the system on this run. That's been an odd trend today.

Post by **tron777** » Mon Jan 31, 2022 5:03 pm

Really it's the upper level piece back across OK. Earlier at 12Z, it held on to that feature and snow lingered all day Fri to add on a few inches. It's done by Fri morning from NW to SE because some models now shred the upper low's energy and we lose that piece so a faster ending.

rhodesman88 · Post by **rhodesman88** » Mon Jan 31, 2022 5:04 pm

Very good run. plenty juicy at the changeover to snow Thurs evening, for those that see it.

Bgoney · Post by **Bgoney** » Mon Jan 31, 2022 5:05 pm

GFS is definityl the one we want, 850s crash much sooner

Post by **tron777** » Mon Jan 31, 2022 5:07 pm

GooFuSSnow.png

GooFuSIce.png

GFS / UKIE are the snowiest options. CMC, RGEM, NAM are the ice and sleet options.

Post by **tron777** » Mon Jan 31, 2022 5:25 pm

18Z GFS Text Data

Code: Select all

CVG

THU 06Z 03-FEB  -1.3     2.8    1023      94      96    0.22     563     545    
THU 12Z 03-FEB  -3.9     2.0    1025      94      97    0.23     564     544    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -5.1     1.0    1023      95      99    0.58     564     546    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -6.4    -3.0    1026      95      98    0.80     563     543    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -7.2    -4.4    1029      93      92    0.18     562     540    
FRI 12Z 04-FEB -10.3    -4.4    1030      93      86    0.02     560     537 

HAO

THU 06Z 03-FEB  -2.8     1.9    1024      93      97    0.25     562     543    
THU 12Z 03-FEB  -4.7     0.7    1025      94      98    0.24     563     543    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -5.5    -0.5    1024      94      98    0.53     563     544    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -6.8    -3.9    1027      94      97    0.71     562     541    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -7.8    -5.0    1029      90      84    0.13     561     538    
FRI 12Z 04-FEB -11.3    -5.1    1031      91      68    0.01     559     536 

MGY

THU 06Z 03-FEB  -3.6     1.4    1024      94      98    0.25     561     543    
THU 12Z 03-FEB  -5.1    -1.2    1026      94      98    0.26     562     542    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -5.9    -1.5    1025      94      98    0.49     562     543    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -7.2    -4.4    1027      94      97    0.67     562     541    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -8.3    -5.3    1029      90      85    0.12     560     538  

DAY

THU 06Z 03-FEB  -4.5     0.1    1025      94      98    0.28     561     541    
THU 12Z 03-FEB  -5.8    -3.5    1027      94      98    0.27     561     540    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -6.3    -3.5    1026      94      98    0.48     561     541    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -7.6    -5.3    1028      93      96    0.56     561     539    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -9.1    -5.9    1030      90      83    0.09     560     537    

CMH

THU 06Z 03-FEB  -1.9     1.5    1024      91      98    0.20     561     543    
THU 12Z 03-FEB  -4.1    -0.7    1026      94      97    0.22     562     542    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -4.8    -1.5    1025      95      98    0.44     562     543    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -7.1    -3.8    1027      94      98    0.66     562     541    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -8.1    -5.1    1028      93      93    0.22     561     539    
FRI 12Z 04-FEB  -9.9    -6.0    1030      92      65    0.01     559     536    

FGX

THU 12Z 03-FEB   0.4     4.8    1022      97      95    0.14     566     548    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -2.3     4.2    1021      96     100    0.53     566     550    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -4.6     1.8    1023      95      99    0.89     566     548    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -6.8    -1.2    1026      96      99    0.46     565     544    
FRI 12Z 04-FEB  -7.8    -2.2    1028      94      98    0.13     563     541    
FRI 18Z 04-FEB  -5.1    -3.8    1029      93      96    0.07     560     538    
SAT 00Z 05-FEB  -8.5    -5.5    1032      97      83    0.03     557     533

NOTE: If you need another location, give me the airport code and I'll see if the model has info for it. Thanks.

Post by **tron777** » Mon Jan 31, 2022 5:27 pm

18Z GEFS... all members but about 5, change CVG over from rain to frz rain Wed night about 1am. The other five are a little slower. Def noticing the upper low dying so we're done by Fri morning at the latest most areas. Thurs night around 1am for some of us too. This is backing the OP run nicely.

EDIT: Only about 2 or 3 have the upper low lingering snow all day Fri so that trend unfortunately is waning.

wrmwxfreak · Post by **wrmwxfreak** » Mon Jan 31, 2022 5:28 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 5:25 pm 18Z GFS Text Data

Code: Select all

CVG

THU 06Z 03-FEB  -1.3     2.8    1023      94      96    0.22     563     545    
THU 12Z 03-FEB  -3.9     2.0    1025      94      97    0.23     564     544    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -5.1     1.0    1023      95      99    0.58     564     546    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -6.4    -3.0    1026      95      98    0.80     563     543    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -7.2    -4.4    1029      93      92    0.18     562     540    
FRI 12Z 04-FEB -10.3    -4.4    1030      93      86    0.02     560     537 

HAO

THU 06Z 03-FEB  -2.8     1.9    1024      93      97    0.25     562     543    
THU 12Z 03-FEB  -4.7     0.7    1025      94      98    0.24     563     543    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -5.5    -0.5    1024      94      98    0.53     563     544    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -6.8    -3.9    1027      94      97    0.71     562     541    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -7.8    -5.0    1029      90      84    0.13     561     538    
FRI 12Z 04-FEB -11.3    -5.1    1031      91      68    0.01     559     536 

MGY

THU 06Z 03-FEB  -3.6     1.4    1024      94      98    0.25     561     543    
THU 12Z 03-FEB  -5.1    -1.2    1026      94      98    0.26     562     542    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -5.9    -1.5    1025      94      98    0.49     562     543    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -7.2    -4.4    1027      94      97    0.67     562     541    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -8.3    -5.3    1029      90      85    0.12     560     538  

DAY

THU 06Z 03-FEB  -4.5     0.1    1025      94      98    0.28     561     541    
THU 12Z 03-FEB  -5.8    -3.5    1027      94      98    0.27     561     540    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -6.3    -3.5    1026      94      98    0.48     561     541    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -7.6    -5.3    1028      93      96    0.56     561     539    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -9.1    -5.9    1030      90      83    0.09     560     537    

CMH

THU 06Z 03-FEB  -1.9     1.5    1024      91      98    0.20     561     543    
THU 12Z 03-FEB  -4.1    -0.7    1026      94      97    0.22     562     542    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -4.8    -1.5    1025      95      98    0.44     562     543    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -7.1    -3.8    1027      94      98    0.66     562     541    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -8.1    -5.1    1028      93      93    0.22     561     539    
FRI 12Z 04-FEB  -9.9    -6.0    1030      92      65    0.01     559     536    

FGX

THU 12Z 03-FEB   0.4     4.8    1022      97      95    0.14     566     548    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -2.3     4.2    1021      96     100    0.53     566     550    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -4.6     1.8    1023      95      99    0.89     566     548    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -6.8    -1.2    1026      96      99    0.46     565     544    
FRI 12Z 04-FEB  -7.8    -2.2    1028      94      98    0.13     563     541    
FRI 18Z 04-FEB  -5.1    -3.8    1029      93      96    0.07     560     538    
SAT 00Z 05-FEB  -8.5    -5.5    1032      97      83    0.03     557     533

NOTE: If you need another location, give me the airport code and I'll see if the model has info for it. Thanks.

Les, I never know how to read these things. Can you tell me in layman’s terms what the Middletown area will look like roughly from Weds midnight through Friday morning around 10 am?

Thank so much!!!

Post by **tron777** » Mon Jan 31, 2022 5:32 pm

wrmwxfreak wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 5:28 pm
Les, I never know how to read these things. Can you tell me in layman’s terms what the Middletown area will look like roughly from Weds midnight through Friday morning around 10 am?

Thank so much!!!

Too bad we lost the great tutorial I posted on the old forum.

It was great! Anybody save a copy? Otherwise this will have to do:

Model Data.png

First column is 2M temps in Celsius - You want it to be below zero to be below freezing at the surface where we are.
Second column is 850 MB temps. You want it to be below zero for snow.
Third column is surface pressure in MB
Forth column is surface relative humidity
Fifth column is 700 MB humidity or 700 MB Moisture
Sixth column is 6 hour QPF in inches
Seventh column is 500 MB height in decameters
Eighth column is 500 Mb thickness. You want it below 540 for snow

So what is snow, sleet, and freezing rain?

2M temps have to be near or below zero in all cases (for the most part to keep this simple).
Snow - 850s below zero and 500 thicknesses less then 540
Sleet - 850s below zero but 500 is above 540
Freezing rain - 850s above zero and 500 is above 540

mainevilleweather · Post by **mainevilleweather** » Mon Jan 31, 2022 5:37 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 5:07 pm GooFuSSnow.png

GooFuSIce.png

GFS / UKIE are the snowiest options. CMC, RGEM, NAM are the ice and sleet options.

I'll take my 12 inches in Maineville and call it a day! Lock it in!

Post by **tron777** » Mon Jan 31, 2022 5:39 pm

18Z GEFS Mean for Snow 10:1 - Awesome Signal!

GEFS Snow Mean.png

GFS and GEFS / UKIE aren't budging yet. NAM, RGEM, CMC< and Euro are more north and icy / sleety. Which solution is gonna give? 18Z Euro runs at 7pm and we will cover that later.

Post by **tron777** » Mon Jan 31, 2022 5:48 pm

I am prepared for this storm now... just had some girl scout cookies delivered to my door!

The peanut butter ones covered in chocolate are my all time fav!

BookNerdCarp · Post by **BookNerdCarp** » Mon Jan 31, 2022 6:12 pm

That GFS run for my hood is insane - 6+ snow and 1+ ice - yikes! Cut that in half and still...yikes!

Post by **Trevor** » Mon Jan 31, 2022 6:17 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 5:39 pm 18Z GEFS Mean for Snow 10:1 - Awesome Signal!

GEFS Snow Mean.png

GFS and GEFS / UKIE aren't budging yet. NAM, RGEM, CMC< and Euro are more north and icy / sleety. Which solution is gonna give? 18Z Euro runs at 7pm and we will cover that later.

Definitely a noticeable shift south. Nice.

Spacejunk · Post by **Spacejunk** » Mon Jan 31, 2022 6:29 pm

This is one time that I want the king to be wrong.

Pete1 · Post by **Pete1** » Mon Jan 31, 2022 6:50 pm

Les, at what point do a certain 2 rappers that appear on absolutevorticity in the winter make their grand entrances?

cincy bud · Post by **cincy bud** » Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:04 pm

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 6:12 pm That GFS run for my hood is insane - 6+ snow and 1+ ice - yikes! Cut that in half and still...yikes!

Where are you?

BookNerdCarp · Post by **BookNerdCarp** » Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:08 pm

cincy bud wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:04 pm
BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 6:12 pm That GFS run for my hood is insane - 6+ snow and 1+ ice - yikes! Cut that in half and still...yikes!
Where are you?

Brown County - Ripley, OH

Bgoney · Post by **Bgoney** » Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:33 pm

18z EU looks about the same as it's 12z

Post by **tron777** » Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:39 pm

Pete1 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 6:50 pm Les, at what point do a certain 2 rappers that appear on absolutevorticity in the winter make their grand entrances?

You know they are coming. It is a bit early. We've got another day of this tomorrow lol

Post by **tron777** » Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:43 pm

Changeover Thurs morning at CVG per the 18Z Euro. Big ice then touch of snow. Here's the text data.

Code: Select all

CVG

THU 12Z 03-FEB   0.0     4.7    1020      98      87    0.29     563     548    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -1.2     4.4    1018      97      99    0.69     564     550    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -3.9     0.0    1022      92      96    0.38     563     546    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -5.6    -3.5    1026      82      98    0.13     560     540    
FRI 12Z 04-FEB  -7.8    -6.2    1030      79      96    0.02     558     535  

HAO

THU 12Z 03-FEB  -0.9     3.7    1021      95      93    0.26     563     546    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -1.8     3.3    1019      91      98    0.65     563     548    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -4.4    -1.3    1023      86      97    0.36     562     544    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -6.2    -4.2    1026      82      96    0.10     559     539    
FRI 12Z 04-FEB  -8.8    -6.7    1030      81      93    0.02     557     533  

MGY

THU 12Z 03-FEB  -1.5     2.9    1022      94      94    0.23     562     545    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -2.3     2.8    1020      91      97    0.63     562     547    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -5.0    -1.7    1023      86      98    0.37     561     543    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -6.8    -4.4    1026      84      94    0.09     559     539    
FRI 12Z 04-FEB  -9.0    -6.8    1030      82      91    0.02     556     533  

DAY

THU 06Z 03-FEB   0.4     2.3    1021      96      93    0.36     561     545    
THU 12Z 03-FEB  -2.4     1.7    1023      92      94    0.23     562     544    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -3.3     1.7    1020      91      98    0.60     562     545    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -5.8    -2.6    1024      88      98    0.36     561     542    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -7.5    -5.0    1027      86      92    0.07     558     537    
FRI 12Z 04-FEB  -9.9    -7.3    1031      84      86    0.02     555     532   

CMH

THU 12Z 03-FEB  -0.6     2.9    1022      94      97    0.19     563     545    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -1.1     4.1    1019      93      99    0.58     562     547    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -3.6    -0.3    1022      89      98    0.51     562     545    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -6.3    -3.6    1025      86      95    0.15     560     540    
FRI 12Z 04-FEB  -8.1    -6.2    1029      82      91    0.04     557     534 

FGX

FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -1.0     4.8    1019      98      98    0.72     566     551    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -3.9     0.2    1024      94     100    0.40     564     546    
FRI 12Z 04-FEB  -5.6    -4.2    1028      80      90    0.11     561     540

mainevilleweather · Post by **mainevilleweather** » Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:47 pm

I will say it again, go GFS!!

Post by **tron777** » Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:49 pm

Here's the snow weenie map....

EuroSnow.png

Post by **tron777** » Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:50 pm

mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:47 pm I will say it again, go GFS!!

Somebody is going to blink tonight or tomorrow.

Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022

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