Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022

[chrisdeweese73]

Welcome to all new members! Looks like we've got a major winter storm to cover in a couple more days guys! Mainly rain for Wed but Wed night thru the day on Friday looking more and more interesting by the hour. Euro coming up soon! If it goes south then wow!

Not a new member but I had to switch email providers and lost access to reset my old password.....DrDestructo here! Hope everyone is well!

Ahhh! long time, no see Doc!! Hope you're ready to potentially make some coin finally! you should be on a nice spot per latest trends.

We shall see.....the trends look favorable!

[tron777]

Wouldn't that be something if these south trends were real and / or continued and we got a lot of snow versus ice and sleet? Then we keep seeing more snow this month, etc. We made a run at the Feb 2010 spot last Feb, but the pattern crapped out on us plus the sleet fest really hurt us. If we avoid a huge icing at CVG with this event, can we make a run at #1 again? We'll see, but it is going to take snow with this system to get us off on the right foot. Ice storm or 2021 sleet fest will hurt those chances for monthly records.

[tron777]

If the Bengals can go to the Super Bowl, then we can get snow with this system! Who Dey!

[BookNerdCarp]

I haven't heard any mention of "warm air." Seems so many times these things get destroyed by warm air. Issue?

[tron777]

I haven't heard any mention of "warm air." Seems so many times these things get destroyed by warm air. Issue?

This is an overrunning set up. We're not dealing with a phasing system here or a strong low pressure center. An arctic boundary being pushed in via a strong Canadian High will interact with a frontal boundary and warm moist air from the Gulf. The warm air overruns the boundary and dumps ice, and snow in the cold air north of the frontal boundary. It will run from SW to NE and track towards the SE thru the area. Cold air undercuts the warm air coming in from the south. Very heavy precip makers without having a strong low so no warm tongue of death.

[Trevor]

I haven't heard any mention of "warm air." Seems so many times these things get destroyed by warm air. Issue?

Not having a strong low will lead to less in the way of strong WAA.

[Pete1]

If the Bengals can go to the Super Bowl, then we can get snow with this system! Who Dey!

Fun fact. The bengals were 125/1 odds to make it to the SuperBowl. They made it. So I see no reason why we can’t get that 18+ inch snowstorm on top of Cincinnati

[BookNerdCarp]

I haven't heard any mention of "warm air." Seems so many times these things get destroyed by warm air. Issue?

This is an overrunning set up. We're not dealing with a phasing system here or a strong low pressure center. An arctic boundary being pushed in via a strong Canadian High will interact with a frontal boundary and warm moist air from the Gulf. The warm air overruns the boundary and dumps ice, and snow in the cold air north of the frontal boundary. It will run from SW to NE and track towards the SE thru the area. Cold air undercuts the warm air coming in from the south. Very heavy precip makers without having a strong low so no warm tongue of death.

Kind of what I thought but wasn't 100% sure. Gonna be a mess.

[tron777]

If the Bengals can go to the Super Bowl, then we can get snow with this system! Who Dey!

Fun fact. The bengals were 125/1 odds to make it to the SuperBowl. They made it. So I see no reason why we can’t get that 18+ inch snowstorm on top of Cincinnati

Wow! I'd be happy with less in the way of ice and more of a 4-8" or 6-10" type of thing. If your location can remain all snow a foot to a foot and a half of snow is certainly possible though. I'm really going to be surprised if we are mainly snow here. I don't think that is going to be the case. Not saying heavy snow is off the table, it isn't but the major ice and sleet risks are still there too. A long ways to go man lol

[tron777]

I haven't heard any mention of "warm air." Seems so many times these things get destroyed by warm air. Issue?

This is an overrunning set up. We're not dealing with a phasing system here or a strong low pressure center. An arctic boundary being pushed in via a strong Canadian High will interact with a frontal boundary and warm moist air from the Gulf. The warm air overruns the boundary and dumps ice, and snow in the cold air north of the frontal boundary. It will run from SW to NE and track towards the SE thru the area. Cold air undercuts the warm air coming in from the south. Very heavy precip makers without having a strong low so no warm tongue of death.

Kind of what I thought but wasn't 100% sure. Gonna be a mess.

It's going to be a mess everywhere to varying degrees Wed - Fri without a doubt.

[Pete1]

If the Bengals can go to the Super Bowl, then we can get snow with this system! Who Dey!

Fun fact. The bengals were 125/1 odds to make it to the SuperBowl. They made it. So I see no reason why we can’t get that 18+ inch snowstorm on top of Cincinnati

Wow! I'd be happy with less in the way of ice and more of a 4-8" or 6-10" type of thing. If your location can remain all snow a foot to a foot and a half of snow is certainly possible though. I'm really going to be surprised if we are mainly snow here. I don't think that is going to be the case. Not saying heavy snow is off the table, it isn't but the major ice and sleet risks are still there too. A long ways to go man lol

Sure wish I had Biffs Grays sports almanac at the start of football season. 125/1 odds to make the Super Bowl. A measly 100 dollars on the bengals to make the SuperBowl would have returned 12,500 dollars

[tron777]

If the Bengals can go to the Super Bowl, then we can get snow with this system! Who Dey!

Fun fact. The bengals were 125/1 odds to make it to the SuperBowl. They made it. So I see no reason why we can’t get that 18+ inch snowstorm on top of Cincinnati

Wow! I'd be happy with less in the way of ice and more of a 4-8" or 6-10" type of thing. If your location can remain all snow a foot to a foot and a half of snow is certainly possible though. I'm really going to be surprised if we are mainly snow here. I don't think that is going to be the case. Not saying heavy snow is off the table, it isn't but the major ice and sleet risks are still there too. A long ways to go man lol

Sure wish I had Biffs Grays sports almanac at the start of football season. 125/1 odds to make the Super Bowl. A measly 100 dollars on the bengals to make the SuperBowl would have returned 12,500 dollars

Yeah. I could bet on the outcome of this winter storm too! I want my own hotel and casino.

[Pete1]

If the Bengals can go to the Super Bowl, then we can get snow with this system! Who Dey!

Fun fact. The bengals were 125/1 odds to make it to the SuperBowl. They made it. So I see no reason why we can’t get that 18+ inch snowstorm on top of Cincinnati

Wow! I'd be happy with less in the way of ice and more of a 4-8" or 6-10" type of thing. If your location can remain all snow a foot to a foot and a half of snow is certainly possible though. I'm really going to be surprised if we are mainly snow here. I don't think that is going to be the case. Not saying heavy snow is off the table, it isn't but the major ice and sleet risks are still there too. A long ways to go man lol

Sure wish I had Biffs Grays sports almanac at the start of football season. 125/1 odds to make the Super Bowl. A measly 100 dollars on the bengals to make the SuperBowl would have returned 12,500 dollars

Yeah. I could bet on the outcome of this winter storm too! I want my own hotel and casino.

We need to find Les’ almanac showing the outcome of all storms before they happen. Absolute vorticity would make world history as never getting a storm wrong.

[tron777]

Euro is running, here we go!

[tron777]

We need to find Les’ almanac showing the outcome of all storms before they happen. Absolute vorticity would make world history as never getting a storm wrong.

I love the idea lol

[cincy bud]

I am just praying that I am far enough north and west to avoid some of the ice

[tron777]

Euro so far looks very similar to 0Z.

[tron777]

Looks like CVG changes from rain to ice around midday Thurs. Thurs morning for I-70 Crew.

[mainevilleweather]

Go team GFS!

[tron777]

To me, Euro continues to show a quicker exit and has less QPF over all. Still a respectable system though.

[tpweather]

Not many changes to the Euro. Maybe just a tad south but not much but is a little slower so maybe a few more hours or precip on the back end.

[tron777]

12Z Euro text data:

Code: Select all

CVG

THU 12Z 03-FEB   0.7     4.6    1019      98      66    0.30     563     548    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -1.1     3.5    1017      97      98    0.65     563     550    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -3.8     1.0    1020      94      95    0.49     562     546    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -5.3    -2.8    1023      81      99    0.13     558     541    
FRI 12Z 04-FEB  -7.0    -6.4    1028      76      99    0.02     554     532    
FRI 18Z 04-FEB  -3.7    -8.3    1030      51      82    0.01     551     528    

HAO

THU 12Z 03-FEB  -0.5     3.8    1020      94      80    0.32     562     547    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -1.6     2.5    1017      93      98    0.61     562     548    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -4.4    -0.3    1021      89      96    0.49     561     544    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -5.8    -3.6    1023      81      99    0.12     557     539    
FRI 12Z 04-FEB  -8.2    -6.7    1028      79      97    0.02     553     531    
FRI 18Z 04-FEB  -5.7    -8.5    1030      61      76    0.01     549     526 

MGY

THU 12Z 03-FEB  -1.2     3.3    1021      93      86    0.29     562     546    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -2.2     2.4    1018      92      98    0.52     562     547    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -4.9    -0.7    1021      88      97    0.52     560     544    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -6.4    -3.9    1023      83      99    0.13     557     539    
FRI 12Z 04-FEB  -8.5    -6.8    1028      82      96    0.02     553     531    
FRI 18Z 04-FEB  -7.2    -8.7    1030      70      74    0.01     549     526    

DAY

THU 12Z 03-FEB  -2.3     2.2    1021      92      92    0.31     561     544    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -3.1     1.6    1019      91      98    0.47     561     546    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -5.7    -1.7    1022      88      99    0.52     559     542    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -7.1    -4.5    1024      85      98    0.12     556     538  

CMH

THU 12Z 03-FEB  -0.3     3.5    1021      95      88    0.26     562     546    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -0.7     3.7    1018      92      99    0.39     562     547    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -3.1     0.8    1019      91     100    0.69     561     546    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -6.0    -2.9    1021      85     100    0.22     558     541    
FRI 12Z 04-FEB  -7.7    -6.3    1026      82      98    0.05     553     533    
FRI 18Z 04-FEB  -6.4    -8.7    1028      70      83    0.01     548     526   

FGX

FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -0.5     5.7    1016      99     100    0.96     565     552    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -3.6     0.7    1021      95      98    0.36     562     546    
FRI 12Z 04-FEB  -5.2    -4.3    1026      80     100    0.08     558     538    
FRI 18Z 04-FEB  -3.7    -7.1    1028      64      96    0.02     554     532 

[snowbo]

A little less QPF, especially around CVG. More in Indiana though.

[cloudy72]

Euro says ice ice baby

[Bgoney]

My take on the EU is about an inch QPF north of 71 is frozen type , 71 south .50-75" is frozen type and our SE counties .25-50" frozen type , all considerably less than GFS frozen qPF