Dual Clippers Sunday and Monday 1/23-1/24/22

[tron777]

The boys.... headlines coming out CMH area for Round 1.

The majority of models concur that the clipper system will move
east across the forecast area on Sunday. The energy associated
with this system, particularly the low level jet, will maximize
at first as pcpn moves into the region. Then models indicate
that the low level jet will weaken as the system moves through
and off to the east by later in the afternoon. For the most
part, snow is expected, with perhaps a little rain mixing in
across the far south. The heaviest, focused QPF will be along
and north of I-70. With SLRs around 15 to 1, we are forecasting
2 to 4 inches in this area, and a Winter Weather Advisory will
be in effect there. Farther south, from I-70 to the Ohio river,
1 to 2 inches may fall. Will issue a Winter Weather Advisory for
locations near and southeast of Columbus where Winter Weather
Advisory criteria is lower (for up to 2 inches). Otherwise,
other locations will be covered in the HWO (with generally less
than an inch south of the Ohio River). Highs will range from the
mid 20s north to the mid 30s far south.

Pcpn will quickly weaken and shift to the east later Sunday
afternoon with dry conditions expected by the evening hours. High
pressure will then briefly traverse east through the region. Skies
will partially clear, but then clouds will increase/thicken once
again ahead of the next weather system to affect the forecast area
on Monday. Lows will range from the single digits northeast with 10
to 20 degrees expected elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
On Monday morning, a wedge of high pressure will be shunting
south of the Ohio Valley, with the region temporarily in between
a couple of weather systems in the active WNW flow aloft. The
second of these two systems will be moving into the area by mid-
morning Monday, with a weak surface low moving east across the
lower peninsula of Michigan, and a well-defined 850mb wave
increasing the southwesterly flow ahead of the broader forcing.
As with the first system, snow potential will be greatest in the
northern sections of the ILN forecast area, though the overall
axis is both lighter and further north than the Sunday snow.
Model agreement is not in bad shape regarding the snow forecast
across the northern part of the area on Monday, with more
uncertainty perhaps in how far south the snow will be able to
get, and whether or not the southern extent of precipitation may
mix with some rain. Right now, matching nicely with WPC
numbers, this forecast will bring a 1-2 inch swath across an
area generally north of a Versailles OH to Lancaster OH line. On
another note, the southwesterly flow on Monday may be slightly
gusty, with BUFKIT momentum transfer suggesting 20-25 knots at
times. This required some upward adjustments to wind gust grids
Monday mid-day through afternoon.

[tron777]

Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-
Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-
Including the cities of Kenton, Ada, Celina, Coldwater,
Wapakoneta, St. Marys, Greenville, Sidney, Bellefontaine,
Marysville, Delaware, Troy, Piqua, Tipp City, Urbana,
Springfield, London, West Jefferson, Plain City, Columbus,
and Newark
244 PM EST Sat Jan 22 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4
inches.

* WHERE...Portions of Central and West Central Ohio.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 4 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

=================================================================

Pickaway-Fairfield-Hocking-
Including the cities of Circleville, Lancaster, Pickerington,
and Logan
244 PM EST Sat Jan 22 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to two
inches.

* WHERE...Pickaway, Fairfield and Hocking Counties.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 4 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

[cloudy72]

15Z SREF from both clippers:

CVG - 1/2"
DAY - 2.5"
CMH - 3.1"

Would double my snow total this winter lol

[tron777]

15Z SREF from both clippers:

CVG - 1/2"
DAY - 2.5"
CMH - 3.1"

Would double my snow total this winter lol

I could see you picking up an inch or so from each Mike.

[tron777]

18Z RGEM is good with the ongoing forecast. Heaviest for the northern ILN counties. Eric is in a good spot for 2-4" with round 1. Mike.. DAY and over to JP... 1-2" and CMH probably can get closer to 3" IMO.

The RGEM gets everyone involved Monday. Even has and inch and change for NKY and SE Crew too. This run I like. Everybody gets something out of both systems.


I'll take it, I'll hug this model lol Total from both clippers:

RGEM.png

[tron777]

18Z GFS - Both clippers:

GFS.png

[young pup]

18Z RGEM is good with the ongoing forecast. Heaviest for the northern ILN counties. Eric is in a good spot for 2-4" with round 1. Mike.. DAY and over to JP... 1-2" and CMH probably can get closer to 3" IMO.

The RGEM gets everyone involved Monday. Even has and inch and change for NKY and SE Crew too. This run I like. Everybody gets something out of both systems.


I'll take it, I'll hug this model lol Total from both clippers:


RGEM.png

Bring it on.

[tron777]

Nice area of snow out there today! Best action N of I-70 of course where the advisory is in effect. Mood flakes and light accum for those S of I-70 and good luck to you S of the river. Radar is panning out as the forecast pretty much expected. We look to get a repeat performance tomorrow with the second clipper. Again, it favors areas north of us.

[tron777]

For us in the Tri-state / Metro area, what I said yesterday looks good. Our skiff of snow will come from the cold front dropping SE that is currently over Central IN. That band is what we will see from this system down here. Low is way north over N IN at 1010 MB. Accumulating snow is well up into Southern Mich as a result. Still a nice event for ILN's N counties N of I-70 per the forecast.

Latest from the boys which should come as no shock to anyone.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Low pressure just south of Chicago will track into western
Pennsylvania by the end of the day. Shield of snow associated
with this will cross the northern part of the forecast area.
Only minor adjustments to accumulations and thus the advisory
remains in place. Could be up to 4 inches in far northern
counties. Elsewhere in the advisory there will be 1 to 3 inches.

There will be a band of snow extending south of the primary
precipitation shield. That will be occurring ahead of a cold
front trailing the low. Snow will likely not occur for a very
long time as this band moves through and temperatures may be
able to warm a bit more further south. So accumulations will be
limited across the southern part of the forecast area. Cannot
rule out some slick spots on roads as the snow occurs and for a
few hours after that.

Winds will increase as the low and front approach with some
gusts out ahead of the system. Winds will become northwesterly
this afternoon once the system passes east. Highs will be near
to slightly below freezing generally along and north of I-70.
Elsewhere, readings will warm into the mid 30s, possibly even
upper 30s across northern Kentucky.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
High pressure will briefly build into the area this evening but
then get quickly pinched off to the south as the next system
approaches. A second Alberta clipper will track just a bit
further north with the center of the low moving across the lower
Great Lakes on Tuesday. This will also move in a few hours later
in the day than today`s clipper. Snow will occur in advance of
the low and associated cold front. Light accumulations are once
again expected, mainly across the northern half of the forecast
area.

A brief period of decreased clouds, along with light winds and
fresh snow for at least parts of the area will allow
temperatures to drop to between 10 and 20 tonight. Readings
should be able to warm a few degrees higher than persistence for
Monday given the later arrival of the system.

Late Monday evening, the low pressure system will be centered
over eastern Michigan and continue to track eastward. The cold
front attached to the low will be draped across NW OH and carve
through central IN. This cold front will continue to work its
way east with the low and move through the ILN fa overnight.
Light snow will accompany this cold front, with the highest
accumulating snow expected along/north of I-70. After about 7
PM, most of the heavier snowfall will have already occurred, but
cannot rule out an additional half inch or so in portions of
western and central OH early Monday night. Further south, rain
may mix in with this snow and limit snow accumulations.
Additionally, will monitor the potential for any freezing
rain/drizzle to mix in, which seems to be more favored overnight
along/south of the OH River. Thermal profiles for majority of
our CWA suggest saturation occurring near -10C during the chance
for precipitation. However, bufkit soundings at Portsmouth and
Cincinnati do show saturation a bit warmer than -10C near
midnight or so. If precipitation continues to linger, could see
a brief period of freezing rain before converting to snow, but
chances seem low as of now, so do not have any ice accumulations
in the grids.

[snowbo]

Nothing here yet.

[tron777]

Checking traffic cams and it looks like a virga storm until you get to Sidney. Lima on north, 75 looks to be snow covered in spots.

[snowbo]

Decent snow now. Let's see if I can get my inch!

[cloudy72]

Nothing here but it’s right on my doorstep

[Spacejunk]

Heavy virga with blowing virga in Oxford

[tpweather]

Heavy virga with blowing virga in Oxford

Great name for a rock band!!!

[MVWxObserver]

Beautiful out there today!

At some point today I'll take a measurement.

Currently at 28 here in G'ville and just 1 degree shy of ILN's progged high for up this way.

[Bgoney]

Stiff southerly winds here are brutal . Keep the reports up north coming , because southerly winds are pretty much all I'll see out of this

[tron777]

Flurries here now.... 31 / 22

[cloudy72]

Nice mod snow falling now

[tron777]

Mood flakes are all I am going to get here.

[cloudy72]

Everything getting a nice coating of white

[weatherbeast45107]

In Lebanon for basketball and can report moderate snow and 30 degrees

[snowbo]

Despite all the brine they poured on our interstates, I 70 and I 675 are becoming snow-covered.

[tron777]

Traffic cams should flurries S of the river and actual snow you can see esp N of downtown. Top side of 275 looking wintry as well as 75 and 71 once you get up towards Reagan Hwy and 275. Looks like it is sticking to the roads along and N of Ohio 129. Nice flakes up there too. So N
Cincy burbs to I-70 is finally getting in on the action. S of the river, we are on the outside looking in for the next couple events.

[cloudy72]

Good stuff…

9AF7687D-C423-4A15-A44F-A598A12C3AB8.jpeg