January 2022 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Euro is back south again at 12Z... what little bit of snow there is can be found over Central KY. Euro seems to be the outlier attm. Even the UKMET brings an inch of snow to the SE Crew and a dusting even to CVG.

[Bgoney]

EU shortwave is weaker compared to some of the other models to benefit us. Atm

[tron777]

Euro wants to grab a low out of the Gulf Fri and move it north Sat for the Apps on East to get another snow event. Don't see a lot of support outside of the Euro and EPS for this yet. I wouldn't rule it out. Locally for us just cold and dry attm this weekend are how things are looking.

[Bgoney]

Euro wants to grab a low out of the Gulf Fri and move it north Sat for the Apps on East to get another snow event. Don't see a lot of support outside of the Euro and EPS for this yet. I wouldn't rule it out. Locally for us just cold and dry attm this weekend are how things are looking.

Big time differences with the GFS and EU how they are handling the shortwaves in the southern stream late week and weekend before the Clipper show starts neext week

[tron777]

Euro wants to grab a low out of the Gulf Fri and move it north Sat for the Apps on East to get another snow event. Don't see a lot of support outside of the Euro and EPS for this yet. I wouldn't rule it out. Locally for us just cold and dry attm this weekend are how things are looking.

Big time differences with the GFS and EU how they are handling the shortwaves in the southern stream late week and weekend before the Clipper show starts neext week

Yeah... I counted like 3 if not 4 different pieces of energy on the map. Going to be a lot of different solutions upcoming once we get past the Wed evening arctic frontal wave.

[Bgoney]

That first time shoveling a few sidewalks, even though it's only an inch or two, sure makes you feel like your not in as good a shape as you think you are afterwards. Nap time.

[tron777]

That first time shoveling a few sidewalks, even though it's only an inch or two, sure makes you feel like your not in as good a shape as you think you are afterwards. Nap time.

I hear you! Felt the same way after lunch when I did the driveway. We'll get in shape quick.... I hope going forward.

[tron777]

A brief mention on Wed as of now from the boys:

The main feature to note on Wednesday is the progression of an H5
trough and associated surface cold frontal boundary that will
traverse the ILN CWA. There will be fairly moderate WAA as noted in
the 850mb theta-e advection plot. Surface temperatures are expected
to climb into the upper 30s to lower 40s during the day, and with
the enhanced WAA in the lowest thousand feet, thermal profiles
suggest rain will be the primary p-type with sufficient melting of
the ice crystals. Most of the precipitation appears to be focused SE
of I-71, with majority of models actually keeping the focus even
closer towards the Ohio River and areas further SSE. Have introduced
likely PoPs for locations along/south of the river, with categorical
values in Lewis co KY. As we progress into the evening and early
overnight hours, a transition to snow will be possible as the warm,
theta-e advection is lost and winds shift back towards the
northwest. Only a few tenths of an inch would be expected out of the
lingering snowfall, so no major impacts from snow accumulations are
expected as of now. There could be some slick spots that cause
issues however if road/pavement temps remain wet overnight from
lingering snowfall as temperatures fall below freezing. Surface
winds of 10-15 mph will help with drying out most areas, but will be
something to monitor.

[tron777]

18Z NAM is a bit south on this run with the band of snow Wed evening, but still, S counties do get a little snow out of it. Good signal for that region of AV Country. Need to see it ramp up a little faster for those of us around the Metro area and points north. Couple of nice bands on the NAM here. 6" over S ILL and another over Central KY. This should be a nice 2-4" event realistically wherever those bands happen to set up shop.

Central KY Got NAM'ED.png

[tron777]

18Z RGEM was also a tick south from its 12Z run.

[tron777]

18Z GFS is a bump north with the snow shield Wed evening. 0.04" at CVG on the 12Z run. 18Z comes in with 0.21" Rain to snow situation don't forget so a few hundredths are lost to rain.

FGX

Code: Select all

THU 00Z 20-JAN   0.4    -2.3    1019      99      98    0.25     555     540    
THU 06Z 20-JAN  -5.1    -5.7    1024      95      94    0.23     553     534    
THU 12Z 20-JAN -11.2   -10.8    1030      95      32    0.01     550     528 

[tron777]

18Z GEFS is north as well.

Precip Type from the members followed by the mean snowfall at 10:1

GEFS.png

GEFSMEan.png

[Pete1]

18Z NAM is a bit south on this run with the band of snow Wed evening, but still, S counties do get a little snow out of it. Good signal for that region of AV Country. Need to see it ramp up a little faster for those of us around the Metro area and points north. Couple of nice bands on the NAM here. 6" over S ILL and another over Central KY. This should be a nice 2-4" event realistically wherever those bands happen to set up shop.


Central KY Got NAM'ED.png

Wow!! Lexington gets the snow again. It’s almost comical at this point.

[mikeyp]

18Z NAM is a bit south on this run with the band of snow Wed evening, but still, S counties do get a little snow out of it. Good signal for that region of AV Country. Need to see it ramp up a little faster for those of us around the Metro area and points north. Couple of nice bands on the NAM here. 6" over S ILL and another over Central KY. This should be a nice 2-4" event realistically wherever those bands happen to set up shop.


Central KY Got NAM'ED.png

Wow!! Lexington gets the snow again. It’s almost comical at this point.

Lol they have to have there year at some point!

[tron777]

18Z Euro still keeps CVG dry but bumped north slightly from 12Z. It's inching northward not to the extent of the GFS. Closer to RGEM and NAM.

[young pup]

Watch for slick spots in the morning. Freezing drizzle up here.

[Bgoney]

The threat for rain changing to snow wednesday evening is very much alive. 0z and now especially 6z GFS have bumped qpf up and north much like yesterdays NAM. Verbatim(my interpretation) , latest GFS/GEFS would give Butler Warren Clinton a dusting to an inch , while the rest of counties in our area to the south , 1-2" . Not sure what EPS had overnight, im sure Les has that info. Not ready to officially throw out numbers until 12z suite, except to say that light accumulations for counties bordering the river is likely after 5pm wednesday , with colder temps and icy roads to follow

[tron777]

Good morning all! Bgoney... great post! All models minus the Euro give the Metro on south something out of this system. Only the Euro is still weak and misses us completely. Central and Eastern KY look to get the most out of this system.... 4"+ will be in those areas. Somewhere between the I-64 corridor and the River will be a 1-2" swath north and 2-4" swath south. I'd say 1-2" for CVG is a good call. The majority of the models are showing this. Matt's area should be closer to that 2" mark and maybe even 3" on some guidance is possible. North of the river, it's another one of those sharp cut off systems again. 0-1" there and once you get towards I-70 nothing unfortunately.

I think I'll start a thread for this event too. It's a quick hitter but accumulating snow is increasingly likely for the southern tier of AV Country.

[tron777]

Please use the new thread to discuss the Wed evening system. Thanks!

viewtopic.php?f=9&t=103

[tron777]

The weekend system does not develop on models that blow up the arctic frontal wave Wed evening. Euro keeps that system weak, so it blows up the East Coast Low instead this weekend. If the arctic frontal wave blows up instead, per the majority of guidance, then the East Coast low won't happen. It will remain weak and slide out to sea.

Next week... all aboard the clipper train!

[tpweather]

Good Morning and though no big snows per the models over the next 10 days or so does not mean we can't get hit with smaller snows plus all we need is a couple pieces of energy to dance and this can form a bigger storm. The models try and show the different pieces of energy but never pick up on every piece and those surprise pieces of energy is the ones that turns a minor system into a decent system. Cold is not going to be the problem as the ao should be neutral and heading a little more negative later in the month plus the nao is very similar and the pna stays just enough positive that the cold has a transport in the eastern half of the USA. Many time looking at the tellies when you see a big swing either way in the nao and sometimes ao is when a bigger system is more likely. That may happen at the end of the month so late next week lets see if models will start to see a bigger system forming. Could be several days before the models grasp hold of that plus they need to find the energy as well.

[tpweather]

We talk a lot about the mjo and how it affects the weather. We saw this big time in December as we were in a phase that promoted warm weather and it lasted most of the month. Over the past several days the mjo has been in phase 8 which is a colder phase but has dropped into the circle of death lol. The COD is not always that imo and it depends what phase it was in before it entered the cod. Usually that means when you drop into the cod in phase 8 during January most likely you will continue to have colder weather. If you see that happen in phase 6 during January then you would expect a milder period. We do watch for signs though to see if the movement is headed towards a warmer phase or stay in the colder phases but usually it takes time for these changes.

[tpweather]

I know December was a big bust on my part and at the end of day whether a met or just a lover of weather very seldom do you see folks get it correct throughout the winter. I know some met's and forecasters thought Dec would stay mild and were dead on but the same folks and not all but many kept talking about an early Jan cold spell followed by a Jan thaw. That of course is not happening. It is funny that everyone has a bias and though some stronger than others it can hurt you or help you depending on the pattern. I see this every year and have watched the national met's for years and it happens every winter season. I believe this is true whether you are a model person or one like myself who forecasts more on a pattern. Sometimes the models do a great job but times where the pattern is a better predictor of the weather. Maybe 100 years from today the models will be so good that forecasting is a thing of the past but my problem what will I do during the winter to take up my time.

[tron777]

Only thing I have to add to the longer term are the potential for clippers starting next week and the potential for a clipper to perhaps phase with a southern stream system. That's the only way we're going to get a big storm here locally. Otherwise, it'll be the nickel and dime events we've been getting scraped by. Looks cold into early Feb at this time and active.

[airwolf76]

i think a big dawg is on the table the next couple weeks, what you think.