January 2022 Weather Discussion

[Browneyedgirl]

Is there anything to look forward to on the horizon?

[tron777]

Is there anything to look forward to on the horizon?

A touch of rain / snow with a cold front on Wed. Then another shot of cold air works in for the end of next week / next weekend. Another southern system possible next weekend but it too may miss us to the SE. Then after that, a few clippers are showing up.

[tron777]

I don't have a lot of change to my overall thinking. Wintry pattern continues thru the rest of the month and probably into early Feb. We are cold today of course, then warm into the 30s and 40s tomorrow. 40s for all ahead of our next system on Wed. The next system is a cold front Wed. A wave develops along an arctic front that mainly impacts folks in KY again south of us. A few rain showers and some flakes possible but not a big deal locally. Travel south again for any light snow associated with that wave. Temps drop into the 20s for highs, teens for lows Thurs and Fri, warming into the low 30s this weekend. Should be mainly dry. GFS and CMC aren't going much with the two jets this weekend but the Euro has an east Coast low and a nice snow storm for New England. Not seeing anything popping locally.

Next week... a clipper system possible around the 24-25th. Maybe another one after that at some point. Still eye balling a big storm signal end of Jan, beginning of Feb time frame for someone near and east of the Mississippi.

[Bgoney]

Wednesday evening is going to be close ,with a fast moving squall line developing near or just east/southeast of cvgland on the backside/along the Arctic front. In and out quickly but could be intense

[tron777]

FYI... Tropical Tidbits is carrying a few 6Z and 18Z Euro maps out to 72 hours now.

[Bgoney]

That squall line showing up on the NAM for Wednesday evening. Quick and intense

[Bgoney]

Definitely can't rule out some light accumulations , with dropping temps and windy conditions, for Wednesday evening,atm . GEFs/GFS trending that way overnight.

[tron777]

That squall line showing up on the NAM for Wednesday evening. Quick and intense

This is the first time any model has developed the wave faster so it's more north. NAM pops a weak surface low over N Mississippi overnight Wed. Could make for an interesting evening as you said should this continue. It would be a quick rain to snow situation with windy conditions and falling temps. Roads would turn in a hurry too. It'll be interesting to see if more models show support for this or not.

Here's the text data for CVG:

Code: Select all

WED  1P 19-JAN   2.5     0.8    1018      99      86    0.02     557     543    
WED  7P 19-JAN   1.4    -0.4    1019      98      98    0.10     556     540    
THU  1A 20-JAN  -3.4    -4.9    1024      89      92    0.14     553     535    
THU  7A 20-JAN  -6.8   -10.7    1029      67      44    0.06     551     528 

[tron777]

9Z SREF Mean is 1.25" at CVG Wed evening.

[tron777]

12Z RGEM is mainly S of the river for Wed evening.

[Bgoney]

GFS was not that far off , just a couple hours difference in ttimng of front or shortwave interactions, i'm intrigued!

[tron777]

GFS was not that far off , just a couple hours difference in ttimng of front or shortwave interactions, i'm intrigued!

I am too. Even though the RGEM is a bit south of the NAM still, it has inched north. You're right about the GFS and GEFS too from overnight, same thing. Let's bump it one step from the 12Z NAM more north and we've got something to talk about again.

[tron777]

Even the Euro is close now too. 0Z run had nothing, way south, 6Z jumped way north to basically be like the RGEM now. Along / S of the river. CVG on the 6Z Euro actually registers 0.01" of QPF. Point is... the trend on all overnight guidance is to bring it north and develop the wave a little faster. Better frontogensis and lift up into the DGZ too. We can do well with waves along arctic fronts. We've seen plenty of those 1-3" events in just a couple hours time. We'll see if this can blossom into something like that or not.

[Bgoney]

Even the Euro is close now too. 0Z run had nothing, way south, 6Z jumped way north to basically be like the RGEM now. Along / S of the river. CVG on the 6Z Euro actually registers 0.01" of QPF. Point is... the trend on all overnight guidance is to bring it north and develop the wave a little faster. Better frontogensis and lift up into the DGZ too. We can do well with waves along arctic fronts. We've seen plenty of those 1-3" events in just a couple hours time. We'll see if this can blossom into something like that or not.

Great post Les, exactly . It is the NAM, I know, but these frontal situations like this wednesday the NAM can handle much better than yesterdays event which it did not

[tron777]

12Z GFS is a bump north of 6Z. Still not enough for folks N of the river. It's close for CVG. Best snows over our S counties, like Owen, Grant, Pendleton, etc. Nice event for Central, Eastern KY into WVA. Def a more robust wave on this run. Def want to see the trend north continue to put more AV posters into the game. Right now S / SE counties are favored in KY and like S Brown and Adams in Ohio. Plenty of time to watch even for Cincinnati / Tri-state.

[tron777]

Even the Euro is close now too. 0Z run had nothing, way south, 6Z jumped way north to basically be like the RGEM now. Along / S of the river. CVG on the 6Z Euro actually registers 0.01" of QPF. Point is... the trend on all overnight guidance is to bring it north and develop the wave a little faster. Better frontogensis and lift up into the DGZ too. We can do well with waves along arctic fronts. We've seen plenty of those 1-3" events in just a couple hours time. We'll see if this can blossom into something like that or not.

Great post Les, exactly . It is the NAM, I know, but these frontal situations like this wednesday the NAM can handle much better than yesterdays event which it did not

Yes... I'd give it a bit of weight. This is more of a meso-scale dynamically driven event which the NAM was designed for. It's a mesoscale model. Will need to watch HRRR tomorrow for trends as well. RGEM, etc. Global models you would think, may struggle like GFS, CMC, and Euro but so far they really aren't that far off as you've said.

[Bgoney]

GFS is a couple hours faster with the front so the shortwave influence is further south and southeast. Slower NAM the shortwave interaction is just northwest or right over CVGland.

[tron777]

Slow today working thanks to MLK Day so you've got me in thinking mode here Bgoney and I'm really beginning to take more of a look into the set up on Wed. I like the temp contrast setting up. We could spike into the mid and upper 40s here Wed afternoon ahead of the front. 50s LOU. GFS has U20s in NW ARK and 70s in the extreme S part of the state. But NW of us, the 20s are lurking in ILL and NW IN behind the front. How much can the next trough dig and can the frontal wave take advantage of the temp contrast with a little overrunning on the cold side of the front right after the front passes and the cold rushes in. Not expecting frz rain or sleet with this one. I think it could start as rain briefly... then rapidly change to snow. Will of course depend on track and strength of the wave with regards to how much QPF we can get. This has that overachieving look to it to be completely honest esp if model trends continue in this direction. Nice thing is we're not far away. This is gaining steam in the short term for sure!

[tron777]

0Z and 6Z GFS has zero precip at CVG. 12Z has a bit now 0.04" so a positive step on this run.

[tron777]

Most of the 12Z GEFS members support the OP run. However about 4 out of 20 members are really amped up and bring a few inches to the Tri-state / Metro. The mean has a dusting (Northern Cincy burbs) to a 1/2" near the river. 1" close to CVG and 1-2" in our S NKY counties. 2-4" for Central and Eastern KY.

[tron777]

12Z OP GFS keeps showing a couple of clippers to keep an eye on for next week as well. I'm watching the first one attm around the 23-24th and it has another 25-26th. Awesome!

[BookNerdCarp]

I honestly like clippers. Even though they tend not to be the big events, we usually do well with them.

[BookNerdCarp]

You just have to love the enthusiasm. Even though he went with a 2 to 6 inch spread for my hood...he got it right.

[Bgoney]

You just have to love the enthusiasm. Even though he went with a 2 to 6 inch spread for my hood...he got it right.

Good ole CB and his push broom approach to snow amounts

[tron777]

12Z CMC is about like the 0Z run. Just misses Boone, Kenton, and Campbell counties with the band of snow. Close enough though for us to keep an eye on this.