January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion

[cloudy72]

00z Hi-Res (HRRR) model is well east with the snowfall....

hrrr-conus-cincinnati-total_snow_10to1-2464000.png

[cloudy72]

Canadian RGEM model has 1-2" in the CVG-DAY corridor and 4-6" in Columbus metro. Pittsburgh and W PA/NE OH get buried on this run.

Obviously at this stage it is a now-cast scenario so these models are just numbers.

[mainevilleweather]

Which model has been correct the most so far with the low pressure any idea?

[Ddmeyer004]

Which model has been correct the most so far with the low pressure any idea?

That answer would be none so far. That’s why it’s a nowcast.

[MVWxObserver]

Canadian RGEM model has 1-2" in the CVG-DAY corridor and 4-6" in Columbus metro. Pittsburgh and W PA/NE OH get buried on this run.

Obviously at this stage it is a now-cast scenario so these models are just numbers.

Good thing the Steelers and Chiefs are playing tomorrow night in KC! lol

[MVWxObserver]

My nephew, his fiancee / her family, and their friends in Nashville are under a Winter Storm Warning from midnight Sun morning until 6 PM (CST) for heavy wet snow in the range of 2 to 5 inches but also with mixing issues which of course could hold some of that forecast amounts down.

[Snowbrain2]

Parts of Ohio will make out quite well with storm. Took a while but NWS put us in storm warning finally.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and what a game. Give credit to the raiders as their defense stopped us quite often leading to field goals. No doubt not the best game by the Bengals but JOE when he missed throws they were away from the defense. He is way ahead of most QB'S at this point in his career. Most likely next up will be the Titans unless Pittsburgh pulls the upset tonight. Enough of football and I start to look at the weather. Got pics from SC this mornig and a couple inches of snow on the ground though my guess much of the day will be more in the liquid form. Glad to see some snow down that way. I will be back later as we know this is a nowcast. Dave always glad to see you post.

[nkyoutdoors]

Reed Timmer is doing a live stream of conditions around Greer, SC at the moment:

[nkyoutdoors]

SC:

F042EAC0-EE46-4578-86E9-6BDA78940681.jpeg

[Bgoney]

serad12.jpg

[tron777]

Good Sunday morning to you all! Just sitting here watching and waiting. Models give CVG anywhere from nothing to a couple inches of snow depending on the model. Eastern counties may get an inch to 3-4" on some data. SE Crew should be in that 3-5" to perhaps 6" range in the far east. Columbus looks to do very well with this event, so expect pics and reports JP! Even in the eastern parts of the Tri-state, you're game for 1-3" and hence this expansion of the WWA to the west. Again, western tri-state posters and Indy posters get the shaft once again. Dayton is also on the fence.

Low of 21 here this morning. Sunny and 24 attm with a dew of 15/ Sunshine won't last long as clouds are lurking to the south. SPC meso page this morning shows the upper low over Central AL and surface low over North Georgia. The kicker for today: How far north does the primary low get before the energy transfer takes place. That is the deal breaker for this system impacting us locally.

[mainevilleweather]

Would have been nice to get some snow, brutal seeing the south get more snow than us this year. They got a storm next weekend too atm. Cleveland and eastern Ohio look to cash in today though!

[tron777]

Water Vapor loop this morning shows a maturing storm system with a nice comma head over TN and KY. Dry slot punching into the SE US. Kicker wave to bring us snow showers tomorrow morning already moving in from Canada into the N Plains.

Water Vapor Loop.png

[tron777]

Mid morning update from the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Have upgraded Licking County to a Winter Storm Warning after
review of latest data. Confidence has increased in the potential
for 6 inches, or more, of snow in parts of the county. Have also
added Delaware County to the Winter Weather Advisory for
expectations of 2 to 4 inches of snow in this area. All other
headlines remain the same as before, but did increase/sharpen
the snowfall gradient even more, with an expectation for 4 to 7
inches from parts of NE KY through central OH. A sharp gradient
back to the west remains essentially the same as before.

[young pup]

Good Sunday morning to you all! Just sitting here watching and waiting. Models give CVG anywhere from nothing to a couple inches of snow depending on the model. Eastern counties may get an inch to 3-4" on some data. SE Crew should be in that 3-5" to perhaps 6" range in the far east. Columbus looks to do very well with this event, so expect pics and reports JP! Even in the eastern parts of the Tri-state, you're game for 1-3" and hence this expansion of the WWA to the west. Again, western tri-state posters and Indy posters get the shaft once again. Dayton is also on the fence.

Low of 21 here this morning. Sunny and 24 attm with a dew of 15/ Sunshine won't last long as clouds are lurking to the south. SPC meso page this morning shows the upper low over Central AL and surface low over North Georgia. The kicker for today: How far north does the primary low get before the energy transfer takes place. That is the deal breaker for this system impacting us locally.

You got it.

[MVWxObserver]

Hopefully Bryan from Cleveland will check in here, too.

[tron777]

12Z GFS gives CVG 0.12" of QPF. DAY gets 0.11"

Here's CMH:

MON 00Z 17-JAN -1.3 -0.8 1006 97 97 0.12 544 540
MON 06Z 17-JAN -2.1 -4.8 998 97 96 0.26 533 535
MON 12Z 17-JAN -4.9 -9.0 1001 78 94 0.06 527 526

FGX

ON 00Z 17-JAN -0.1 -1.1 1003 98 96 0.36 542 540
MON 06Z 17-JAN -1.4 -4.9 1000 96 84 0.23 535 534
MON 12Z 17-JAN -5.0 -10.8 1005 83 97 0.01 528 524
MON 18Z 17-JAN -1.8 -11.1 1009 89 67 0.02 532 525

[tron777]

12Z CMC thru Monday evening.

CMC.png

[tron777]

12Z GFS in very good agreement.

GFS.png

[Ddmeyer004]

Good morning Les and welcome to day one of the non-sensical storm…lol. Can’t wait to see how this actually plays out for both our areas.

[tpweather]

Hey Dave, hope all is going well

[Phr0z3n]

Hrrr going insane with snow totals for my house. Could be in the deformation band or close to it

[tron777]

Good morning Dave! We'll see what happens later this afternoon and this evening. Watching radar trends closely.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les,no matter what happens over the next 24 hours the pattern looks good the next 2 weeks. Again models will still have problems with pieces of energy and sometimes they will catch them and others boom a sudden system 2 days away. The current system or systems depending how you look at it has been on the models for sometime and even at this time not easy for models or forecasters to get a decent handle on snow and ice totals. No doubt busts both ways over the next 24 hours but hey winter weather in the Ohio Valley.