January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion

[dce]

Personally, I expect the rest of the 12z guidance to be similar to the NAM with the accumulation staying easy of Dayton and Cincinnati. But who knows, when you think one thing is going to happen with the weather, much of the time the opposite occurs.

[MattyD]

Let’s go!!!!

[Trevor]

Weather and Bengals posts are both encouraged in here today. Let’s do this!

[Trevor]

[mikeyp]

Gfs followed Nam. Who Dey!!!! Going to be a great day for football!

[fyrfyter]

It’s exactly like the NAM. Almost nothing for everyone!

[Trevor]

Gfs followed Nam. Who Dey!!!! Going to be a great day for football!

Yessir! Let’s go!

[Trevor]

12z GFS Snowfall (Kuchera)

[BookNerdCarp]

Less than 24 hours out and still the models are all over the board. Yikes!

[WxMom]

Thanks to all for keeping us up to date with this system! Ever grateful!

And this lifetime Steeler fan is saying Who Dey today!!!! Love the energy a playoff game after clinching the AFC North brings to the region!

[Trevor]

Less than 24 hours out and still the models are all over the board. Yikes!

The slide south and east is pretty bad. I’m stubborn and since my forecast is not for professional/work purposes at the moment, I’m going to hold onto my 1-3” (2.8” precisely) forecast for shits and giggles haha. But yeah the 12z runs pretty much sealed the deal barring something wild. On to the next!

[young pup]

Wide range of numbers for the Columbus area. I am sure they are going to change again later on.

[tron777]

Team Canada:

TeamCanada.png

[tron777]

12Z UKMET:

CrazyUncle.png

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and love watching the radar today. I have seen so many different forecasts especially for Tn and SC. The Nashville area the folks at the NWS are hinting more of a 5-7 inch range though some models barely thrown out 3 inches in some cases. Greenville,Sc is a great example and have seen anywhere form 0 because of the warm layer to over a foot of snow. When you have a decent cold punch to the north though not the coldest in the world but very dry bumping up against the warm and moist air coming out of the gulf you can expect this storm to get rather strong and quickly later today. So there will be some big busts across the eastern 1/3 of the country over the next 48 hours. I still see no reason to change my forecast and really has nothing to do with the models but like Bgoney mentioned the other day analogs of your brain is sometimes more important than what a model can show. Do those analogs always pan out and no but the chances are about the same as a model. I want to see the period from about 1pm-7pm on Sunday locally when we see the bulk of the snow. Where that storm lines up east of the apps and when it throws the moisture across the mountains will be key during this period. One thing I have noticed is warming in the upper layers so yes busts will happen in some of the winter storm warning areas as precip either turns to rain or the ratios go from 10-1 to more like 7-1.

[tron777]

Euro does the transfer a bit sooner on this run. So it all boils down to when the transfer occurs and how quickly the primary low dies out. Gives CVG 0.10" of QPF. DAY - 0.08"

FGX

SUN 18Z 16-JAN 1.0 -0.1 1009 66 99 0.02 550 542
MON 00Z 17-JAN -0.6 -1.5 1004 96 96 0.49 543 540
MON 06Z 17-JAN -1.2 -3.2 1001 93 99 0.27 537 536
MON 12Z 17-JAN -4.3 -8.9 1005 63 100 0.02 529 525

Good for CMH too.

MON 00Z 17-JAN -0.6 -0.7 1007 74 98 0.06 545 540
MON 06Z 17-JAN -2.0 -3.7 1000 92 100 0.34 535 535
MON 12Z 17-JAN -3.6 -8.8 1001 64 87 0.07 528 527

It's an Eastern AV Country storm for sure.

[Ddmeyer004]

Good Afternoon and love watching the radar today. I have seen so many different forecasts especially for Tn and SC. The Nashville area the folks at the NWS are hinting more of a 5-7 inch range though some models barely thrown out 3 inches in some cases. Greenville,Sc is a great example and have seen anywhere form 0 because of the warm layer to over a foot of snow. When you have a decent cold punch to the north though not the coldest in the world but very dry bumping up against the warm and moist air coming out of the gulf you can expect this storm to get rather strong and quickly later today. So there will be some big busts across the eastern 1/3 of the country over the next 48 hours. I still see no reason to change my forecast and really has nothing to do with the models but like Bgoney mentioned the other day analogs of your brain is sometimes more important than what a model can show. Do those analogs always pan out and no but the chances are about the same as a model. I want to see the period from about 1pm-7pm on Sunday locally when we see the bulk of the snow. Where that storm lines up east of the apps and when it throws the moisture across the mountains will be key during this period. One thing I have noticed is warming in the upper layers so yes busts will happen in some of the winter storm warning areas as precip either turns to rain or the ratios go from 10-1 to more like 7-1.

Tim I could not agree more. I told Les last night after watching models and NWS discussion I was throwing all that out and as Bgoney said “going with my gut”. To much indecision amongst the models and radar certainly wasn’t acting like models supported. I’m going with nowcast and will see what we get in the aftermath including the tailing on Monday. My hunch is it’s not going to be 1” or less for my area in Mason. My one concern, and Les touched on it, is the morning rush hour, although it is a Federal holiday.

[tron777]

Euro 10:1 Ratio

Euro.png

[tpweather]

Probably be my last post of the day as heading to a Bengals party. We have talked a lot about transfer of energy over the past several days and yes transfer of energy will happen but that has never been my concern with the storm. Where the storm goes form the gulf states into the Carolina's has been my issue all along. If it is further east off the coast and heads up the coast then no doubt we get little if any snow. Keeping the storm 100 miles inland and then makes its path north is what I have always based on my forecast on. When it gets to Nc and Vir that is when I expect the snow to be sent over the mountains and that is when we get our snowfall. Many storms we see an upper system come nearby and a secondary storm is forming off the Southeast coast. This is different imo as the upper system is south of us and really makes it to the southern app mountains and then the surface low which has been along the gulf coast later today shoots northeast. Mountains will cause many problems and sometimes storm system are not strong enough or have the correct wind direction to send the moisture this far west. That is why in the morning I will be looking at the surface low in SC. That will make the forecast so much easier on Sunday.

[Bgoney]

12z EU is meeting in the middle with GFS/GEFs. Highest agreement is in our SE counties , soouthern brown and Adams with the higher qpf. although wont change amounts due to temps at start and compaction of the heavy wet snow and that goes for almost everyone. Brown and Highland are wild cards as they are right at that higher moisture cutoff , will leave the same for them but they could see slightly more. In the end no changes to the fancy map graphics. Its Que Sera Sera time and watch it unfold cause still nothing set in stone.

snow1.PNG

[Trevor]

Confused on the 1” or Les area. What did he do to deserve that?!?!

[Trevor]

Three pizzas on the grill right now. BBQ Chicken, Chicken Fredo, and a Margherita.

[BookNerdCarp]

KYZ097-098-OHZ064-079-080-160300-
/O.UPG.KILN.WS.A.0001.220116T1700Z-220117T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KILN.WW.Y.0003.220116T1700Z-220117T1200Z/
Bracken-Robertson-Pickaway-Brown-Highland-
Including the cities of Augusta, Brooksville, Mount Olivet,
Circleville, Georgetown, Mount Orab, Hillsboro, and Greenfield
150 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches.
Some brief mixing with sleet or freezing rain is also possible,
with little to no ice accumulation expected.

* WHERE...In Ohio, Pickaway, Brown and Highland Counties. In
Kentucky, Bracken and Robertson Counties.

* WHEN...From noon Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the Monday morning commute.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

Additional information can be found at www.weather.gov/iln as
well as on our Facebook and Twitter pages

[BookNerdCarp]

KYZ099-100-OHZ065-073-074-081-082-088-160300-
/O.UPG.KILN.WS.A.0001.220116T1700Z-220117T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KILN.WS.W.0002.220116T1700Z-220117T1200Z/
Mason-Lewis-Fairfield-Ross-Hocking-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
Including the cities of Maysville, Vanceburg, Tollesboro,
Lancaster, Pickerington, Chillicothe, Logan, West Union, Peebles,
Waverly, Piketon, Portsmouth, and Wheelersburg
150 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5
inches, with locally higher amounts. Some brief mixing with
sleet or freezing rain is also possible, with little to no ice
accumulation expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Central and South Central Ohio and
Northeast and Northern Kentucky.

* WHEN...From noon Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the Monday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

[Bgoney]

Confused on the 1” or Les area. What did he do to deserve that?!?!

A typo of course,.lol