January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion

[tron777]

This maybe a slower moving storm then expected and if so, stronger. Let's see if the 18Z Euro has any legs tonight. That push of warm air made it into S Iowa. That is where the rain snow line is west of us tonight. I don't know if that means anything or not. But watching this system evolve for any subtle changes. 1006 MB low tonight over the Dallas, TX area. Rain / snow line currently running S of I-64 in KY tonight so anything that drifts in by morning is all snow. Not expecting really any mixing for the event. If anyone sees mixing, then others are going to see heavy snow.

[BookNerdCarp]

Could this be an 11th hour surprise....only the Euro knows.

[tron777]

I never thought we'd get NAM'ed by the 18Z Euro.

GooglyMoogly.gif

[tron777]

Man... that kicker s/w for Monday is so close to getting involved to pull this thing more West on the 18Z Euro lol

[tron777]

Piece Number One:

Round 1.png

[MVWxObserver]

Right now currently for here in Darke Co ...

Sunday Night

Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of snow in the evening. Lows in the lower 20s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 20 percent.

Martin Luther King Jr Day

Cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow showers. Highs in the lower 30s.

[tron777]

ZoomedIn Round1.gif

[Ddmeyer004]

Man... that kicker s/w for Monday is so close to getting involved to pull this thing more West on the 18Z Euro lol

Les I’m having a difficult time imagining this system taking the Deep South dive as has been predicted. Watching this thing build and expand in the Midwest just 2 states over….this would have to really take a drastic do south move very soon for it to miss us.

[tron777]

Man... that kicker s/w for Monday is so close to getting involved to pull this thing more West on the 18Z Euro lol

Les I’m having a difficult time imagining this system taking the Deep South dive as has been predicted. Watching this thing build and expand in the Midwest just 2 states over….this would have to really take a drastic do south move very soon for it to miss us.

It's an evolving situation Dave. Models have shown the system to dive south and weaken, which is what causes the snow shield to shrink. We'll see. Monitor radar trends and meso page tonight. Short term guidance, etc.

[Ddmeyer004]

Man... that kicker s/w for Monday is so close to getting involved to pull this thing more West on the 18Z Euro lol

Les I’m having a difficult time imagining this system taking the Deep South dive as has been predicted. Watching this thing build and expand in the Midwest just 2 states over….this would have to really take a drastic do south move very soon for it to miss us.

It's an evolving situation Dave. Models have shown the system to dive south and weaken, which is what causes the snow shield to shrink. We'll see. Monitor radar trends and meso page tonight. Short term guidance, etc.

From what I’ve followed the last 2 days with crazy modeling and now actually seeing this in the Midwest I honestly believe we may be in a nowcast….models are having a hard time with this actual storm. Gonna be interesting

[tron777]

21Z SREF Mean

CVG - 2.7"
HAO - 2.6"
ILN - 3.2"
MGY - 2.9"
DAY - 3"
CMH - 3.8"

[tron777]

Man... that kicker s/w for Monday is so close to getting involved to pull this thing more West on the 18Z Euro lol

Les I’m having a difficult time imagining this system taking the Deep South dive as has been predicted. Watching this thing build and expand in the Midwest just 2 states over….this would have to really take a drastic do south move very soon for it to miss us.

It's an evolving situation Dave. Models have shown the system to dive south and weaken, which is what causes the snow shield to shrink. We'll see. Monitor radar trends and meso page tonight. Short term guidance, etc.

From what I’ve followed the last 2 days with crazy modeling and now actually seeing this in the Midwest I honestly believe we may be in a nowcast….models are having a hard time with this actual storm. Gonna be interesting

Totally agree my friend.

[tron777]

Snowfall reports:

MSP: 3.7” at the Airport

4.6” at the NWS office in Minnesota.

Flurries making it into Chicago now.

[tron777]

This is definitely a slow moving system, no doubt about it. Remains to be seen, whether slow means stronger or not. We'll just have to keep an eye on it and watch it.

[tron777]

0Z HRRR correcting way north. 18Z run had the low down in the FL Panhandle Sat night. 0Z run Central AL.

[tron777]

Trevor?

[tron777]

Cedar Rapids Iowa up to 4" of snow tonight. 0Z NAM is running... it's been way south as of late so here we go.

[Ddmeyer004]

0Z HRRR correcting way north. 18Z run had the low down in the FL Panhandle Sat night. 0Z run Central AL.

As I suspected….this low isn’t going to be as far south as had been predicted. This could bode well for us

[tron777]

0Z HRRR correcting way north. 18Z run had the low down in the FL Panhandle Sat night. 0Z run Central AL.

As I suspected….this low isn’t going to be as far south as had been predicted. This could bode well for us

HRRR at 44 hours: 997 MB low into Extreme NE TE by 4pm Sunday. Cold sector snow is a bit lacking. Kind of surprised by that. You'd think more snow would be pulled west of the Apps. That is not a whimpy low.

[tron777]

0Z HRRR - Snow SE of I71 when the model ends Sun evening at 48 hours. 996 low into S WV. Dry NW of I-71

[tron777]

0Z NAM coming in, let's see what we got..

[Ddmeyer004]

0Z HRRR correcting way north. 18Z run had the low down in the FL Panhandle Sat night. 0Z run Central AL.

As I suspected….this low isn’t going to be as far south as had been predicted. This could bode well for us

HRRR at 44 hours: 997 MB low into Extreme NE TE by 4pm Sunday. Cold sector snow is a bit lacking. Kind of surprised by that. You'd think more snow would be pulled west of the Apps. That is not a whimpy low.

Les this is not acting like any storm we’ve watched. Not even the models could figure it out….and now here we are 48 hours out and this things is still evolving. I’m throwing all models and discussions from the boys out the window at this point.

[tron777]

NAM had the low down in the Gulf on the 18Z run lol 0Z now has it in NOLA. Still too far south IMO but it is correcting a little back north it seems.

[tron777]

0Z HRRR correcting way north. 18Z run had the low down in the FL Panhandle Sat night. 0Z run Central AL.

As I suspected….this low isn’t going to be as far south as had been predicted. This could bode well for us

HRRR at 44 hours: 997 MB low into Extreme NE TE by 4pm Sunday. Cold sector snow is a bit lacking. Kind of surprised by that. You'd think more snow would be pulled west of the Apps. That is not a whimpy low.

Les this is not acting like any storm we’ve watched. Not even the models could figure it out….and now here we are 48 hours out and this things is still evolving. I’m throwing all models and discussions from the boys out the window at this point.

It is def a nowcast Dave. But I am still going to see the data and talk about it. It's what we do lol But it is certainly interesting. Like a 0-4" snow range for us is on the table still. You're right. Less then 48 hours out. Model chaos.

[tron777]

NAM is going to be way south of what we've seen from the last Euro and HRRR runs. IT is much faster with this system. Slower I think is going to mean stronger with this system.