January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion

[tron777]

MD issued for hvy snow in the N Plains as the front piece begins the drop as it enters the US.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0065.html

[tpweather]

With the system today and it moves southeast over the next 36 hours when does the movement stop and this system starts to ramp up is key. 100 miles further north or south can change the forecast. At the moment it looks to be in southern Arkansas later on Saturday. Just something to watch and like I mentioned so far models doing good with the first part of the storm and lets see if that continues.

[tron777]

From the boys:

On Saturday night, surface high pressure shifts east from the Great
Lakes to the northeast United States as low pressure digs down into
the deep South. This will provide a dry northeast flow across the
forecast area with cold overnight lows in the teens north to near 20
south. Wind chills will dip into the single digits north of the Ohio
River.

Latest guidance is starting to focus in on developing the coastal
low over the tidewater of the Carolinas into Virginia Sunday into
Sunday night. This leaves the older low center to slowly decay as it
shifts northeast along the southern to central Appalachians very
near the parent H5 low. It appears the best chance of accumulating
snow will be Sunday afternoon through evening as ascent is maximized
near the mid-level thermal ridge from northeast Kentucky through
central Ohio. There is some concern of some above freezing air
reaching into this same region, but dynamic cooling will be working
against this warmer air aloft, so have kept all snow as the
precipitation type for now.

Working with surrounding offices, have decided to go with a winter
storm watch for our highest confidence counties in the south and
east from noon Sunday through Sunday night. This may require a bit
of westward expansion later as the forecast comes into focus.

Colder air arrives late Sunday night into Monday as the low lifts
northeast into New England. Surface high pressure briefly ridges
into the Ohio Valley Tuesday with temperatures trying to warm back
near normal in the return flow behind the ridge. A fast-moving
clipper-type cold front arrives Wednesday with below normal
temperatures returning Thursday.

[Bgoney]

This system like most systems will have busts both high and low. I have seen this kind of storm give Adams county 10 inches while Dearborn country gets nothing. So yes this system most likely will have those kind of busts.

Agree, Eastern Adam's County can do very well in this set up

[tron777]

US 23 Corridor looks really good thru KY and OH.

[tpweather]

So the difference on Sunday between the GFS and Euro is the gfs is having the low form as a coastal low while the Euro is in the interior. This will make a difference and yes affect snow totals locally. If you want more snow root for the Euro and if you hate snow then go with the gfs.

[tron777]

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[BookNerdCarp]

This...

[mikeyp]

Hard to believe this storm is few hundred miles from us but won’t be here until Sunday lol. Pretty sweet if you ask me! I really don’t have a guess on totals. 0-2 for 275 loops and bottoms south east from there is will quickly go up in totals.

[tron777]

Maybe we'll get NAM'ed in a little bit to boost our sprits.

[tpweather]

Maybe we'll get NAM'ed in a little bit to boost our sprits.

I got NAM'ed one night and took me 3 days to recover

[fyrfyter]

Maybe we'll get NAM'ed in a little bit to boost our sprits.

I’m not sure I want my sprit boosted…

I can feel it coming… we are definitely going to get NAM’ed!

[Spacejunk]

Stick Butler County with a fork, we are done.

[BookNerdCarp]

Snow Talk
https://www.wave3.com/2022/01/14/snowta ... pdate-114/

[tron777]

Nope, not gonna happen, way south.

[BookNerdCarp]

This pretty much paint the picture...

[tron777]

NAM is trying to show some ice /sleet in SE counties. This system will have a warm nose associated with it at 850 and 925 MB. No arctic air really to speak of. NAO is neutral.

[tron777]

This did come NW some... not bad for CVG. 0.24" of QPF. I'll take it. Looks like the primary gets into Extreme SE KY into WVA before completely dying. We could really use that.

[cloudy72]

Livin on the edge lol

[Trevor]

12z NAM Snowfall (Kuchera)

[mainevilleweather]

OU looks money on the NAM

[Trevor]

OU looks money on the NAM

Road trip? Haha been a few years since I’ve been out there. I miss that place dearly.

[BookNerdCarp]

Always learning something new - In BGs video I never knew that an Advisory wasn't a downgrade from a Watch. Always saw it as a downgrade.

[fyrfyter]

Always learning something new - In BGs video I never knew that an Advisory wasn't a downgrade from a Watch. Always saw it as a downgrade.

That came from NWS, after much discussion from Watch to advisory. I guess in the hierarchy, advisories, special weather statements and warnings are higher than watches.

[Bgoney]

This did come NW some... not bad for CVG. 0.24" of QPF. I'll take it. Looks like the primary gets into Extreme SE KY into WVA before completely dying. We could really use that.

With surface temps and possibly aloft, at the start of precip, the first tenth of qpf might be a mix and not accumulate, especiallyif it's light. All the models get us into the mid to upper 30s Sunday afternoon