January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion

[tron777]

12Z GEFS Mean is about an inch for CVG and 3" for Matt. Sharp NW cut off obviously again with this system.

[tron777]

CMC is south. Mainly SE of I71 with some light snow.

[airwolf76]

maybe the king will be west today to keep you all from taking the plunge lol my guess is we should have a pretty descent idea on what to expect tomorrow or maybe late tonight. these models are a joke you cant believe anything they show

[tpweather]

Looks like so far all 3 models are similar. What I believe is correct and that is an inland run storm once it hits the Carolina's and never looked to be a coastal storm in that part of the country. What I believe will change and its a two way street. The models show a strengthening storm in the gulf states but keeps the system well south. Two things will happen imo is the storm strengthens but is further to the north and west of current forecast or it remains weak and stays near the gulf coast and then once it heads north in the Carolina's it gets strong. My thoughts at this moment is a strengthening storm in the gulf area and for the system to be about 100 miles north of what is showing at the moment. We need that 100 miles to keep the upper system in striking distance. Again we are more than 60 hours away but lets see what happens once we get into the 36 hour range on Friday.

[dce]

The UK model is pretty far east also. The trend is not our friend today. Still time for a NW bump though.

[cloudy72]

Has the system even been sampled yet?

[BookNerdCarp]

BG today...

https://fb.watch/aw7e4egaE1/

[Trevor]

Has the system even been sampled yet?

Idk how much data was ingested into the 12z runs, but the system is fully ashore now so should have decent sampling today.

I would assume that the 12z runs had a fair bit of sounding/balloon/center fixing involved in the run but maybe someone else can confirm that.

[tpweather]

My guess there is some sampling involved once it came ashore but when you have these systems that go up and above the rockies some data gets sort of goofy imo. Sometimes it is correct but not always until it gets into the northern plains. So far the storm if it heads up east coast but an inland storm that is where we would get the sort of called back lash snows and the models are showing that today. We get little if any from the true upper system. Lets see what the Euro shows today and again need another 12-24 hours to see if any new info is thrown into the models.

[tron777]

Has the system even been sampled yet?

Idk how much data was ingested into the 12z runs, but the system is fully ashore now so should have decent sampling today.

I would assume that the 12z runs had a fair bit of sounding/balloon/center fixing involved in the run but maybe someone else can confirm that.

Agreed... should be fully sampled 0Z tonight.

[tron777]

At hour 60, Euro is S and faster then 0Z so there's todays trends...

[cloudy72]

Yeah Euro also brushes SE counties. Def not a good day for our area regarding the storm with the 12z suite of models.

[mikeyp]

I’m throwing in the towel lol.

[tron777]

Looks to be an Apps Snow Storm instead of the heart of OV snow storm the way I see it. Hope I can salvage an inch or so out of it. I would beat the last storm LOL Would be my biggest snowfall to date.

[BookNerdCarp]

Don't think I am going to be the lucky one this time either.

[cloudy72]

Up here in Dayton land - I don't think we ever had a towel to throw...but if we did I can throw it in! LOL 00z suite may call me wrong but not looking good now.

[tpweather]

Euro very similar to yesterday and no doubt the best model for us locally especially east of I-71. The main low is similar in strength to the other models but further north. This model makes the most sense by far and again no coastal storm until it get into at least New Jersey. We talk about transfers a lot and why and because we have the app mountains. This happens in the Rockies as well but the difference is we have the Atlantic Ocean and that can sometimes spur up some big time lows. This system is just getting stronger as it moves northeast and you are not developing a secondary low but the energy from the first is just redeveloping on the east side of the mountains.

[tron777]

I will wait to see the 0Z suite myself then throw it in if need be.

[tron777]

It's not far away from being a big event. I mean you don't need huge changes for it to occur. We need the ocean low to get out of the way or have the kicker wave behind it be slower. Something in the timing of these moving parts needs to change or it's not ours for the taking. Again...

[Trevor]

12z Euro Snowfall (10:1 ratio)

[mikeyp]

It going to be an awesome storm for someone! I dont think for us but still an awesome storm!

[tron777]

Euro precip... Classic Miller A storm. Too bad that kicker wave isn't faster. If it could have phased in on the backside, we'd get nailed. It would absolutely would have pulled everything well back to the NW. A shame all of the players on the field couldn't play.

giphy.gif

[cloudy72]

And maybe the 00z models shift back NW and I eat crow. Not counting on it though but stranger things have happened.

[Trevor]

Hah well if it plays out this way the annoying snow weenies in NYC, Philly, etc get screwed too

[tpweather]

My take is somewhat different from Les. This is a storm that is really bombing out over the Carolina's. Usually you see this with a coastal storm but that is not happening folks. This system will be closer than normal when it rides northwards on Sunday and we will get into the back edge of the snows. Again further east the better chances of heavier snows. This is not your usual system as we know many times we either get hit with the upper low or it goes up the coast and we get shut out. The upper low is still in play but it may be joining forces with the surface low as they collide in South Carolina. I do believe some changes will occur in the next 24 hours. At this moment locally in the I-275 loop I would go with 1-2 northwest and 2-4 southeast. Heading towards southeast Ohio and Northeast Kentucky I would go with a 4-8 snow total at the moment. Folks towards Indy the chances of any decent snow looks unlikely and yes maybe some very light snow but nothing major at all. Again this is only the take on today's runs and once it is in the northern plains the models should have plenty of data to go on by then. The media will get hold of this storm and it looks to bomb out but the Euro has had that in its modeling for a few days and I believe its true that will happen. Time period for the most likely chances of snow falling and accumulating is 12p Sunday until midnight. If the upper system is closer then another period of snow may happen overnight Saturday but with this run that looks like its not going to happen.