tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:48 am
If the nam is correct and only an if at this point the house in Greenville may get hit big time. I do expect ice down there but if this run of nam ends up correct they could get hammered with some big time snows. That place will be shut down for a week if that happens.
Geez Louise - well it is at fantasy range for the NAM....but this would be really bad (GSP = Greenville SC) at 84 hours.
nam_2022011312_084_KGSP.png
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So the nam is really not a true transfer of energy as the low itself will have been established before heading up the east coast. The only transfer will be from the upper system which again models have a hard time showing exact placement of that feature. Usually when you see these storms form off the Carolina coast it happens slowly at first with a low trying to form and then it gets the energy boost from the transfer of the upper system which many times is located in the Ohio Valley.
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:52 am
So the nam is really not a true transfer of energy as the low itself will have been established before heading up the east coast. The only transfer will be from the upper system which again models have a hard time showing exact placement of that feature. Usually when you see these storms form off the Carolina coast it happens slowly at first with a low trying to form and then it gets the energy boost from the transfer of the upper system which many times is located in the Ohio Valley.
It was supposed to be a Miller B, but if this run is correct, then it'll actually be a Miller A.
Mike thanks for graphics. This may be a hybrid of this so call it a Miller C. You have the low diving down in the central plains before it strengthens once again and heads northeast on its journey. If there was a big push of cold in the midwest over the weekend then east coast storm is the more likely play but since that push of cold is not there I would expect a more inland system. Be nice to see the afternoon models especially the Euro to see if it heads back to the more southeasterly track. We need this to dig further southwest late Friday and early Saturday
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 10:06 am
Mike thanks for graphics. This may be a hybrid of this so call it a Miller C. You have the low diving down in the central plains before it strengthens once again and heads northeast on its journey. If there was a big push of cold in the midwest over the weekend then east coast storm is the more likely play but since that push of cold is not there I would expect a more inland system. Be nice to see the afternoon models especially the Euro to see if it heads back to the more southeasterly track. We need this to dig further southwest late Friday and early Saturday
There are hybrids... Miller C's, but that gets a little too messy for my simple mind.
cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 10:24 am
Looks like the Canadian regional model brushes our SE crew at 84 hours.
Similar to the last run. Too bad that kicker wave is coming in behind it or it would have come more NW. The problem I think is now two fold. Ocean Strom is too strong and slow for this thing to get cranking earlier and the kicker wave dropping in from the NW behind it, keeps things going so the flow is more progressive. Less time for things to amplify. 2 for 2 now with models over amp'ing systems in the med to longer term.
This will be a largely impactful storm for many, many folks. As it stands, eastern areas of the Ohio Valley are at the highest risk. We shall see how the globals handle things over the next couple hours and see if they latch onto the further south/east idea. Still like my early call idea for now but will adjust as needed.
LOL. The gfs is a swing and a miss as well. So far the models are keeping the main system strong along the gom and this keeps the upper system much closer and of course further away from us. Is this set in stone and the answer is no but give this another 24 hours and then we may need to punt.
Pretty wild as the low itself remains an inland storm almost until it reaches New Jersey so that part makes since imo. It stays strong along the GOM which is a little strange that its not further north and west when its traveling across the gulf states. Next up is the CMC.
I prefer Miller Lite
LOL
