January 2022 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and hopefully by this afternoon we have enough info to open a new topic. Important feature that we are not talking about is the front coming through here late today and heading southeast. Where does this front get hung up over the Carolina's. Will it make it all the way to the coast or get hung up in the central part of South Carolina. This is a very important feature and yes we tend to look at the storm itself but the pathway for the storm is sometimes set up a few days in advance and that is where the front will stall out. Cold air and yes we have enough for winter type precip but this is not the coldest air mass coming through and much of the true arctic air is well to the northeast. May be some leftover snow showers Monday but we do see the temps go up briefly next Tuesday and Wednesday and of course snow on the ground could temper the temps but late next week and weekend more storminess is likely and I believe the coldest air of the season headed this way but will this be attached to a storm system and most likely yes.

My take Tim on today's system has always been to keep it weak and keep it moving. The more it lingers or digs, the more heights will be suppressed ahead of our next system and it'll track more south and turn the corner further to the east. For our area, since we look to miss the drop south on Saturday then we need to cash in when the system tracks north. We could do very well if the storm comes more north and is stronger as well before turning north and NE, but if we only get clipped by the turn north, then amounts won't be much. Lots of moving parts. Big snow storms usually are.

Les you are correct and another key part to this storm is the reorganizing of the first system on Friday. This storm is going to gain strength once again and that helps it move further to the north and west. I really do not believe it will become a Carolina coastal storm. More likely is and inland storm with the upper support northwest of there. How close will the upper support be to us is key.

[tron777]

The boys had this to say overnight:

Main focus of the extended period remains potential winter event
late this weekend. The period begins Friday night and Saturday as
one significant piece of mid-level energy supports a low pressure
system off the east coast as another, stronger disturbance dives
south through the plains. Even though the Ohio Valley is between
these systems, strong high pressure over southern Ontario will
provide cold northeasterly surface flow and well below normal
temperatures.

The mid-level energy shifts northeast into the Tennessee Valley on
Sunday. Global ensembles have shifted development of the surface low
well to the northwest with the 00Z runs, and this is reflected in
increased precipitation chances southeast of Interstate 71 starting
late in the day on Sunday. In fact, what was once an energy shift to
a strengthening surface low off the Carolina coast, the ECMWF and
its ensemble (along with the deterministic GFS) now promote the main
surface low developing near the Piedmont Region of central North
Carolina into central Virginia, then moving it northeast into the
Poconos of Pennsylvania by Monday morning. Wrapping around this low
on the ECMWF is a clearly defined trowal feature with a
precipitation maximum back into northeast and central Ohio.

While this trend raises concern for the potential for significant
snow (6+ inches) in the upper and central reaches of the Ohio
Valley, have decided to go on the low-end for now until more
consistency is reached in the guidance run-to-run. Of particular
interest is not only the path of the surface low, but also the
placement of any potential trowal... which obviously has a big
impact on snowfall amounts on the back edge of any low pressure
system. Included in this uncertainty is the temperature profile over
south central Ohio and northeast Kentucky, which could become warm
enough to support some mixed precipitation during the early phases
Sunday evening. Bottom line is stay tuned in for updates over the
24-36 hours.

[tron777]

Good Morning Les and hopefully by this afternoon we have enough info to open a new topic. Important feature that we are not talking about is the front coming through here late today and heading southeast. Where does this front get hung up over the Carolina's. Will it make it all the way to the coast or get hung up in the central part of South Carolina. This is a very important feature and yes we tend to look at the storm itself but the pathway for the storm is sometimes set up a few days in advance and that is where the front will stall out. Cold air and yes we have enough for winter type precip but this is not the coldest air mass coming through and much of the true arctic air is well to the northeast. May be some leftover snow showers Monday but we do see the temps go up briefly next Tuesday and Wednesday and of course snow on the ground could temper the temps but late next week and weekend more storminess is likely and I believe the coldest air of the season headed this way but will this be attached to a storm system and most likely yes.

My take Tim on today's system has always been to keep it weak and keep it moving. The more it lingers or digs, the more heights will be suppressed ahead of our next system and it'll track more south and turn the corner further to the east. For our area, since we look to miss the drop south on Saturday then we need to cash in when the system tracks north. We could do very well if the storm comes more north and is stronger as well before turning north and NE, but if we only get clipped by the turn north, then amounts won't be much. Lots of moving parts. Big snow storms usually are.

Les you are correct and another key part to this storm is the reorganizing of the first system on Friday. This storm is going to gain strength once again and that helps it move further to the north and west. I really do not believe it will become a Carolina coastal storm. More likely is and inland storm with the upper support northwest of there. How close will the upper support be to us is key.

What interests me is the GFS was always NW. Some CMC support. Euro was always weaker and SE. Then you have the Euro and EPS as well come NW to match some of the GFS solutions. Want to see the GFS tick back NW and the Euro at least hold where it's at and some folks esp along and east of the I-71 corridor can break out the shovels. Would love to see a hundred mile shift NW to get everyone involved, but that is probably wishful thinking.

[tpweather]

Great write up by them Les and pretty much of my thinking at the moment.

[tron777]

The long term pattern... not to forget about it... continues to look cold and active thru the rest of Jan. Nothing much has changed there. Most of our focus right now is of course going to be on the weekend system.

[Trevor]

While impacts on Cincinnati are TBD, I went on ahead and started a thread since there will be a storm; track TBD.

viewtopic.php?f=9&t=101

[tpweather]

Great write up by them Les and pretty much of my thinking at the moment. Les remember not to far northwest as there is really not a cold shot of air to the northwest during the weekend and a bigger push of course can change some of the snow to liquid form. I will take this mornings Euro and be very happy and then maybe see a slightly stronger system on Sunday to give out a nice snow for most folks. Get the back brace out if this happens as the snow will be the heavy wet type and of course I will be to busy watching football on Sunday to shovel lol

[tron777]

While impacts on Cincinnati are TBD, I went on ahead and started a thread since there will be a storm; track TBD.

viewtopic.php?f=9&t=101

Thank you Sir!

[Bgoney]

NCEP has abandoned the MJO. Going by current satellite, cluster in both 7 and 8. According to EU modeling 8 should start dieing off in the coming day

r5s_snd_1240.jpg

[westharrisonwx]

What interests me is the GFS was always NW. Some CMC support. Euro was always weaker and SE. Then you have the Euro and EPS as well come NW to match some of the GFS solutions. Want to see the GFS tick back NW and the Euro at least hold where it's at and some folks esp along and east of the I-71 corridor can break out the shovels. Would love to see a hundred mile shift NW to get everyone involved, but that is probably wishful thinking.

Seeing how we only got a handful of flakes from the last week's system out here in SE IN, I would gladly take 1-3" like some of the 0z guidance was showing. Back to back shutouts would be frustrating.

[tron777]

What interests me is the GFS was always NW. Some CMC support. Euro was always weaker and SE. Then you have the Euro and EPS as well come NW to match some of the GFS solutions. Want to see the GFS tick back NW and the Euro at least hold where it's at and some folks esp along and east of the I-71 corridor can break out the shovels. Would love to see a hundred mile shift NW to get everyone involved, but that is probably wishful thinking.

Seeing how we only got a handful of flakes from the last week's system out here in SE IN, I would gladly take 1-3" like some of the 0z guidance was showing. Back to back shutouts would be frustrating.

No doubt! I hear ya!

[cloudy72]

Getting some light rain here - temp is 43

[Spacejunk]

Drizzle in Oxtown

[tron777]

Drizzle in Oxtown

Here too. I hit 50 today lol Models had low 40s. Over achieved yesterday too. Something is not right with the guidance.

[Bgoney]

Second week of January comes to an end tomorrow and temps will have averaged very close to normal as did the first. 15th-21 week should average below normal with the last couple days skewing the week below normal. That should begin a follow up week of possibly much below normal temps For the last full week of the month

[tron777]

Snow is the only thing that is missing. Need QPF Cold air is not the issue.

[cloudy72]

My high was 45 and only a trace of rain.

[tron777]

Next potential storm system window of significance as of todays runs, looks to be around 1/22-1/23. Current look is for a repeat of the last two systems.

[MVWxObserver]

Has been a wonderful celebration day of ##59 as where does the time go?!

A very nice bday lunch, snowman themed cake w/ snowflakes, ice cream, and 4 new books including a couple of authors who are natives of Hamilton where my sister and I grew up during part of our lives.

Currently 30 here in the Treaty City and progged for around 20 Sat morning.

[snowbo]

Happy birthday Eric. Hope you had a great day!!! Now some weekend snow to top it all off!

[MVWxObserver]

Happy birthday Eric. Hope you had a great day!!! Now some weekend snow to top it all off!

Thank you very much Bo!

Will be interesting to see how far the northwest edge of the snow shield gets to!

[Sargent51]

Happy Birthday Eric. Most of us are focused on the other thread, but appreciate you and wish you the best.

[tron777]

Yes, Happy Birthday Bro! Hope you had a wonderful day man!

[MVWxObserver]

Thank you very much Sargent and Les!!

Also the Bengals win was a nice extra present for bday weekend!

[MVWxObserver]

Currently 18 here in G'ville and progged for around 13 Sun morning.

Congratulations to my nephew Jared and his fiancee Madi (Madison) as they got engaged today at a state park in or near Nashville!