January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion

[Trevor]

Continue winter storm discussion here.

[rhodesman88]

Decided to go for the thread, eh? Hopefully, there will be no jinx. Oops, title has December.

[Trevor]

I’m not a huge CB fan (discussion for another thread perhaps lol). But I did see his graphic on Twitter, and I agree with his threat placement.

[Trevor]

Decided to go for the thread, eh? Hopefully, there will be no jinx.

Haha well there will be an impactful storm affecting the region so it was thread-worthy. Specifics for Cincinnati are TBD of course, but some areas in the region will see a sizable event.

[fyrfyter]

Title fixed!

[Trevor]

Title fixed!

Thanks

[tron777]

Come on Trev! Get it together Bro! This thread is off to a roaring start. lol

[Bgoney]

Lol, Trev doing everything he can to jinx it

[Trevor]

not enough coffee yet this morning apparently!

[cloudy72]

Thinking about buying a snow blower.....should I delay?

[tron777]

Thinking about buying a snow blower.....should I delay?

I used my leaf blower on the last "event." Hoping to see some sort of an upgrade with this next one.

[Trevor]

Most if not all model guidance favors areas east/southeast of I71 for the heaviest amounts. Adjustments either way are of course likely at this stage in the game. Having said that, there is only so far west this thing can (and will) go in a setup like this. I like an early 1-3” call for Cincinnati, 3-6”+ east/southeast of town. @Matt you may be sitting in a good spot, sir! Model runs today - 12z tmrw should probably get close to locking this storm in for the most part save for some minor adjustments thereafter.

[Bgoney]

Screenshot_20220113-082041_Chrome.jpg

[BookNerdCarp]

Most if not all model guidance favors areas east/southeast of I71 for the heaviest amounts. Adjustments either way are of course likely at this stage in the game. Having said that, there is only so far west this thing can (and will) go in a setup like this. I like an early 1-3” call for Cincinnati, 3-6”+ east/southeast of town. @Matt you may be sitting in a good spot, sir! Model runs today - 12z tmrw should probably get close to locking this storm in for the most part save for some minor adjustments thereafter.

2-in-a-row in the sweet spot...unheard of Trevor!

[tron777]

You can see today's system as a weak 1012 MB low coming right thru the area. Cannot rule out a sprinkle or flurry today but that's about it. Off the Pacific Coast, you can see another 1012 MB low and there she is. The energy that helps create the storm for Sunday. She'll ride up and overtop of the PNA ridge then make the dive south on Saturday. How far west and it's trajectory are going to play a role in terms of how much it digs and how strong it gets before doing the energy transfer to the EC Low and heading north. These are typically slow transfer too so if the track is far enough north and west, we can do well.

[tron777]

Noticing a big difference with the 12Z NAM in that it really bombs that ocean low to 977 MB vs 985 MB (6Z run) at Hour 30. Hope that doesn't mean a further SE track of our system. So far the heights are about the same so not yet sure.

[cloudy72]

So far NAM looking waaaay south

[cloudy72]

Heck if this is correct we can't even include Matt in the conversation - it's a swing and miss for all.

[tron777]

I had a feeling with the NAM deepening the Ocean Low so much and it took forever to get out of the way, that is the end result.

[tron777]

UKIE has been that south the entire time. I was always thinking that the model was the outlier. But that NAM... eesh!

[Bgoney]

NAM'P throws a screwball right down Broadway. Its only a trend if the rest of 12z follows

[cloudy72]

Major ice potential in the typical cold wedge zone of NE Georgia, western South Carolina up through the Piedmont of North Carolina.

[cloudy72]

Major ice potential in the typical cold wedge zone of NE Georgia, western South Carolina up through the Piedmont of North Carolina.

CLT for example

SUN 1P 16-JAN -4.1 1.1 1018 84 95 0.28 558 544
SUN 7P 16-JAN -3.6 4.2 1008 91 97 0.92 554 548

[tpweather]

If the nam is correct and only an if at this point the house in Greenville may get hit big time. I do expect ice down there but if this run of nam ends up correct they could get hammered with some big time snows. That place will be shut down for a week if that happens.

[tron777]

If the nam is correct and only an if at this point the house in Greenville may get hit big time. I do expect ice down there but if this run of nam ends up correct they could get hammered with some big time snows. That place will be shut down for a week if that happens.

You may want to head down there to enjoy this one Tim instead of smoking cirrus here.