January 2022 Weather Discussion

[Bgoney]

18z GEFs are going to be hoot

[tron777]

Well it isn't as bad as I thought. The energy transfer is at least slow so the primary, albeit weak does get into SE KY before it fully dies. That helps. Heaviest snows are along and SE of I-71.

snku_acc.us_ov.png

[tron777]

18z GEFs are going to be hoot

Out to Hour 54 on College of DuPage site.

https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

[Bgoney]

To much hour to hour dancing with the low , it was really struggling , I trust the result less than usual, Lol

[kywthrluvr]

Watching Local 12 where they’re showing 2 models that they call the “foreign” (I assume the Euro) and the “American” (GFS?). Anyway, John Gunn is giving the Euro 70% likelihood and GFS 30%. Seems a bit premature but I know TV Mets play the conservative card until the 11th hour.

[BookNerdCarp]

Well it isn't as bad as I thought. The energy transfer is at least slow so the primary, albeit weak does get into SE KY before it fully dies. That helps. Heaviest snows are along and SE of I-71.


snku_acc.us_ov.png

Sign me up for that 10.5 inches of snow LOL

[tpweather]

Good Evening and going to have some fun over the next several days. Transfer of energy and when it happens is a key. Many times you will see a system that heads across the country and has spent a lot of energy and sort of peaks in the Missouri Valley. These kind of systems have a much easier time of transferring its energy to the coast because its dying out to some extent and the newer system on the coast is new and refreshed and ready to get stronger. The system for the weekend is somewhat different. Yes it comes down from Canada and is rather strong and you see some of the watches for folks in Iowa and nearby places. Yes it weakens the further south it goes. Then it sort of gets a boost with another piece of energy and this revives the system as it heads northeast. This is a good sign imo with a later timing for a transfer. That sounds good but two more things to worry about and one is the system takes a more southerly route and we get missed completely or this storm gets so strong that it brings even milder air this way and yes there is some mild weather to the south as the system coming in on Thursday is not dropping that far south. Need to watch an upper system that forms and that is usually few hundred miles to the northwest of the surface low. That is usually a good sign if the upper system is rather strong and the surface system can stay at more of a moderate strength. Models almost always have problems with the upper system until its already snowing. So we are still more than 72 hours out and many things will need to be worked out. Do I expect some snow and yes but giving out any clue on amounts is just silly at this point with so many variables that need to be worked into the equation.

[Bgoney]

That's definitely the way to go for a tv Met, saying a chance for snow at this stage is good enough

[Phr0z3n]

Good evening everyone. Classic Miller A snowstorm scenario setting up. In my opinion usually transfers to the primary are earlier than forecasted. This will be a fun one to watch. This one is setting up more to the west. So inner coastal primary track is probably favored at the moment.

[airwolf76]

the weekend storm is kind of shaping up to bring us all appreciative snows, kind of like the blizzard of 96' but maybe half as much

[allowat3]

Marc Weinberg from WDRB in Louisville is tweeting that the GFS is showing massive southerly flow 925 mb to 600 mb and that means the GFS is going to be wrong on precipitation type over a chunk of its snow area. Why? Because the southerly flow will warm mid level temps notably more than the model says. Thoughts anyone?

[Phr0z3n]

Marc Weinberg from WDRB in Louisville is tweeting that the GFS is showing massive southerly flow 925 mb to 600 mb and that means the GFS is going to be wrong on precipitation type over a chunk of its snow area. Why? Because the southerly flow will warm mid level temps notably more than the model says. Thoughts anyone?

I agree with this I can’t tell you how many times in Miller a situations where we were to stay all snow and it mixed from the Ull bringing waa up farther than forecasted significantly reducing our accumulations. And that was even after the transfer to the primary

[BookNerdCarp]

CB to the rescue

https://kyweathercenter.com/?p=52850

[tron777]

Marc Weinberg from WDRB in Louisville is tweeting that the GFS is showing massive southerly flow 925 mb to 600 mb and that means the GFS is going to be wrong on precipitation type over a chunk of its snow area. Why? Because the southerly flow will warm mid level temps notably more than the model says. Thoughts anyone?

I agree with this I can’t tell you how many times in Miller a situations where we were to stay all snow and it mixed from the Ull bringing waa up farther than forecasted significantly reducing our accumulations. And that was even after the transfer to the primary

Based on this, we should be in a good spot then since all models are currently south with the track of this system. If the track of the 500 MB low tracks over S KY that is good for us. N of I-64 then we would rain here and N of I-70 would remain all snow.

[tron777]

CB to the rescue

https://kyweathercenter.com/?p=52850

He's not wrong. Euro has been coming NW with each run. GFS was at its most NW with the 6Z run and since has went back to the SE some. Could the GFS have been too amp'ed? Possibly. Euro we know is too far south so they are probably going to meet in the middle somewhere which is fairly typical for models to do anyway.

[tron777]

Visible Sat image as the sun goes down in the west. Note the upper low near the Baja in the STJ and our system out in the Pacific just coming into view for Sunday.

20220130020_GOES17-ABI-wus-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.jpg

[young pup]

I hate to say this. But I hope the snow stays away. I believe I have the virus. Got a telehealth appointment this afternoon and hoping they will give the order to be tested. My brother has tested positive and I am around him quite abit. Symptoms started Saturday. Been having good days and bad days here.

Back to weather, that 0z gfs run was a doozy last night.

Hey JP, hope you feel better...
I got tested last week as I've been feeling like I have the virus as the symptoms were familiar to when I had covid in 10/20. But the tests came back negative and my doc says that it's probably these nasty colds that keep going around. Hope you can feel better to do some plowing if this snowstorm can pan out.

Thank you Joe. I got tested this afternoon for the flu and the virus. No results yet. Looking like someone on the forum is going to see snow.

[mainevilleweather]

Nam not looking too good for us

[nkyoutdoors]

[tpweather]

Good evening everyone. Classic Miller A snowstorm scenario setting up. In my opinion usually transfers to the primary are earlier than forecasted. This will be a fun one to watch. This one is setting up more to the west. So inner coastal primary track is probably favored at the moment.

Good Morning and I agree fun to watch. I mentioned last night that transfer of energy happens quite often when the system in the middle of the country is starting to lose strength. This storm though is one that reorganizes in the south central states and is gaining strength as it moves northeast. To me this means a later transfer of energy if at all and I say that because this storm may just swing through the Dixie states and like you mentioned the track favors more of a inner coastal track which puts us on the far western side of the system Sunday. Again where is the upper system as this storm gains strength on Saturday. Many scenarios possible and of course overnight the Euro is further north and west and the gfs looks like it is more suppressed. I believe the gfs does terrible with upper systems that form a few hundred miles away from the surface low and the euro tends to catch these upper systems better. Does that mean the Euro from overnight is the way to go and not yet but I believe the picture it through out from last night does show the upper system which is so important to us getting any significant snow out of this system.

[Bgoney]

Models have sort of pulled a switcharoo overnight , GFS Surface low takes the more southern route to virginia , while EU takes it into east tennessee. But it doesn't really matter at this point because it will change again. You can see both are struggling with the , when , or if, of a transfer , the tell tale sign yo-yo-ing of hour to hour SL placement a dead give away. One thing that they apparently have agreed on in the overnight is the upper level low is more south and east than yesterdays placement . GEFs not a fan for most of AVland, havent' seen the EPS, trust ensembles more atm. However todays 12z op runs should be more reliable with hard data infiltrating the system for the first time.

[tron777]

Good morning all! 0Z GFS and 0Z Euro are very close with each other. 6Z GFS went a little SE again. 0Z CMC also looks decent. Not sure I am going to use the Ensembles quite as much. Ensembles are good for medium to long range but we are at Day 4 now (going with a Sunday snow event) so I am going to trust the OP's a bit more then the Ensembles. Not quite to the NAM and RGEM's wheelhouses yet but they are worth taking a peak at. They should be more useful tonight and tomorrow onwards. Just my 2 cents. But anyway... nothing set in stone yet. Just hope we don't see this one slip too far to the south since that has been the trend this winter. That thought is always in the back of my mind. I'd like to see the 0Z Euro, GFS, and CMC runs hold. Then we can start a thread this afternoon! I've been itching to have someone start it.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and hopefully by this afternoon we have enough info to open a new topic. Important feature that we are not talking about is the front coming through here late today and heading southeast. Where does this front get hung up over the Carolina's. Will it make it all the way to the coast or get hung up in the central part of South Carolina. This is a very important feature and yes we tend to look at the storm itself but the pathway for the storm is sometimes set up a few days in advance and that is where the front will stall out. Cold air and yes we have enough for winter type precip but this is not the coldest air mass coming through and much of the true arctic air is well to the northeast. May be some leftover snow showers Monday but we do see the temps go up briefly next Tuesday and Wednesday and of course snow on the ground could temper the temps but late next week and weekend more storminess is likely and I believe the coldest air of the season headed this way but will this be attached to a storm system and most likely yes.

[tron777]

Good Morning Les and hopefully by this afternoon we have enough info to open a new topic. Important feature that we are not talking about is the front coming through here late today and heading southeast. Where does this front get hung up over the Carolina's. Will it make it all the way to the coast or get hung up in the central part of South Carolina. This is a very important feature and yes we tend to look at the storm itself but the pathway for the storm is sometimes set up a few days in advance and that is where the front will stall out. Cold air and yes we have enough for winter type precip but this is not the coldest air mass coming through and much of the true arctic air is well to the northeast. May be some leftover snow showers Monday but we do see the temps go up briefly next Tuesday and Wednesday and of course snow on the ground could temper the temps but late next week and weekend more storminess is likely and I believe the coldest air of the season headed this way but will this be attached to a storm system and most likely yes.

My take Tim on today's system has always been to keep it weak and keep it moving. The more it lingers or digs, the more heights will be suppressed ahead of our next system and it'll track more south and turn the corner further to the east. For our area, since we look to miss the drop south on Saturday then we need to cash in when the system tracks north. We could do very well if the storm comes more north and is stronger as well before turning north and NE, but if we only get clipped by the turn north, then amounts won't be much. Lots of moving parts. Big snow storms usually are.

[tpweather]

Going to be a heavy wet snow as we are not seeing the temps much below 28 or so during the storm itself. Ratio's which we usually try and go with 10-1 may be even lower and you could see 8-1 as a possibility. Much different with the last snow that saw Lexington get hammered as ratio's approached 20-1 at times.