January 2022 Weather Discussion

[BookNerdCarp]

At some point in history we have got to get one to nudge back north into the jackpot zone for us! LOL

[winterstormjoe]

This system really isn't a clipper. It did not originate in Canada. It's really more of a hybrid Miller B type of system transferring its energy to the (we hope inland runner) and not a true East Coast low. Someone mentioned Feb 1998 and that is not the set up for that. We had a strong cut off upper low that was basically trapped over us for several days. Blizz of 1996 had an upper low that only slowly transferred its energy to the East Coast Low. I don't think that this system looks to be that strong like the 1996 event and no this is nothing like that storm to be honest either.

Hi Les, I'm the one who brought up the 98 scenario, but as I would like it to be that I know that it's far from it and my point was that it looks like we could very well see our biggest snow event of the season so far if the models continue to trend the way they are going. I'd like to see a trapped ULL over KY, but an App runner would probably be the best scenario that we can get from this setup. Anyway, I believe that we'll get snow out of this and that it will not be a swing and miss. I like your explanation of the 96 and 98 events as I needed a refresher course from the time period. It's been so long since we seen anything big around here.

[tron777]

Interesting runs today and like Bgoney mentioned the upper level support is something we always look for in these systems. The Euro really bombs this system east of the mountains so this tells me a system moving this way and getting stronger is always a good sign. This will also bring up some milder air so folks especially southeast of the area has a chance that some liquid precip could be added to the forecast. Fun and games headed this way and glad the Bengals game should be okay as love to have a fast track with the current offense we run

Just wanted to add to the above post by Les. I am not sure what system from 1996 or 1998. The current system we are watching is a clipper that arrives Thursday and Friday and dives southeast. As that happens a low forms somewhere in the GOM area and it sort of picks up the leftover energy from the original clipper and becomes its own storm. So no not a clipper that gains strength but the clipper does add energy to the systems that will emerge in the gom area. Hopefully I am correct on that Les

It's not really a clipper. The energy came in via the Pacific. A true clipper, the energy comes in via the Northern Canadian Provinces. They are typically smaller and faster moving with less moisture. This system is more of a hybrid. Much stronger then a clipper and it's origins are more Pacific in nature so it'll have more moisture associated with it. It has a true surface low to the south and an upper low that tracks near us to bring the snow. The storm pivots NE and transfers its energy to an Eastern US or East Coast low. More of a Miller B type system.

[tron777]

12Z EPS SLP or low positions:

EPSSLPPositions.gif

12z EPS at hour 120 - Individual members for snow.

EPS1.png

EPS2.png

[tpweather]

Correction on my part Les. The first system is one that comes from the pacific but has that clipper type speed heading southeast. My bad on that and need to pay more attention.

[mainevilleweather]

Not being in the bullseye this far out is usually a good thing for us haha.

[tron777]

Correction on my part Les. The first system is one that comes from the pacific but has that clipper type speed heading southeast. My bad on that and need to pay more attention.

All good Tim! You can call it whatever you want as long as it snows.

[tron777]

Not being in the bullseye this far out is usually a good thing for us haha.

Yep. Things are trending just fine for now.

[tron777]

Anybody want to start a thread yet?

[nkyoutdoors]

Anybody want to start a thread yet?

Only if it won't jinx anything!

[Bgoney]

Like that Low position map Les. You can see there is a little more correction north possible the way it looks atm. That could be enough to get I71 and points southeast in to the game. This is per EU only

[Bgoney]

Anybody want to start a thread yet?

Yikes, I vote no. After 12z suite tomorrow is my vote

[tron777]

Like that Low position map Les. You can see there is a little more correction north possible the way it looks atm. That could be enough to get I71 and points southeast in to the game. This is per EU only

I thought the same thing. It keeps edging north with each run to get closer to the GFS and now CMC to join that camp. Nice trends again today for sure.

[tpweather]

Like that Low position map Les. You can see there is a little more correction north possible the way it looks atm. That could be enough to get I71 and points southeast in to the game. This is per EU only

I thought the same thing. It keeps edging north with each run to get closer to the GFS and now CMC to join that camp. Nice trends again today for sure.

Always be careful with the northward shift. That is why I believe this system can get enough warm air especially above to have some folks turn over to some kind of liquid form at some point especially if this system get stronger early than models may show. I agree lets ring in the new topic at noon on Thursday lol.

[Bgoney]

Like that Low position map Les. You can see there is a little more correction north possible the way it looks atm. That could be enough to get I71 and points southeast in to the game. This is per EU only

I thought the same thing. It keeps edging north with each run to get closer to the GFS and now CMC to join that camp. Nice trends again today for sure.

Always be careful with the northward shift. That is why I believe this system can get enough warm air especially above to have some folks turn over to some kind of liquid form at some point especially if this system get stronger early than models may show. I agree lets ring in the new topic at noon on Thursday lol.

Tim , glad to see you back by the way. I was a.littlr shocked to see the GFS move that far north today with that stout blocking over top, and I think that's about it pertaining to the GFS , I would be really shocked if it moved more than say, 75 miles more, again GFS

[tron777]

TOP CIPS Analog for this event.

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/Even ... map=COSN24

[tpweather]

Like that Low position map Les. You can see there is a little more correction north possible the way it looks atm. That could be enough to get I71 and points southeast in to the game. This is per EU only

I thought the same thing. It keeps edging north with each run to get closer to the GFS and now CMC to join that camp. Nice trends again today for sure.

Always be careful with the northward shift. That is why I believe this system can get enough warm air especially above to have some folks turn over to some kind of liquid form at some point especially if this system get stronger early than models may show. I agree lets ring in the new topic at noon on Thursday lol.

Tim , glad to see you back by the way. I was a.littlr shocked to see the GFS move that far north today with that stout blocking over top, and I think that's about it pertaining to the GFS , I would be really shocked if it moved more than say, 75 miles more, again GFS

My concern Bgoney is if the system really blows up on Saturday it can bring up some really warm air quickly. So many times we have seen systems that looked like all snow and before you know it the rain has made a move all the way to I-70. If the system remains in the moderate range in strength I will feel better but its that quick strengthening that always worries me and sometimes you see the main low end up going to far west. Love to see it in eastern Tn and head towards W.Virgina but that is probably a dream lol. Going to be fun to watch and over the past several years the latter half of January has not seen many systems so hopefully this is a start of a nice 2-3 week pattern of snow and cold.

[Bgoney]

It's funny how most of the models get the low into east Virginia, bit all have a different path of it getting there

[tpweather]

It's funny how most of the models get the low into east Virginia, bit all have a different path of it getting there

I agree and I believe Thursday models will hopefully be a little clearer. The main thing that jumped out to me today was the Euro and how quickly it intensifies this system later Saturday into Sunday. That is almost a bomb kind of storm if you look at the pressure drops.

[tron777]

A wonderful AFD from the boys: Please read!

Deep, but unphased, troughing will be positioned near the NE coast
of the CONUS for the start of the period with NW flow aloft over the
OH Vly transitioning to more quasi-zonal flow through the day on
Friday. The final day of the workweek will have the region squeezed
between the system exiting the eastern seaboard and the next one in
line, which will be progressing quickly from the Upper Midwest to
south-central plains Friday into Friday night.

By this time, attention will be squarely focused on the second of
the aforementioned systems -- the one tracking almost N-S through
the central plains on Friday. Longer-range guidance remains in
relatively good agreement showing this midlevel S/W transitioning to
a closed low by Saturday morning in the vicinity of KS/OK. This
feature will be responsible for a rather impressive band of wintry
pcpn on the NE periphery of the track, which will likely position
itself from MN to MO during this time period, with the ILN FA & OH
Vly staying pretty confidently to the east of any pcpn through the
daytime on Saturday. Cannot completely rule out a few flurries,
perhaps, near/south of the OH Rvr by later Saturday evening, but the
guidance trend in taking this feature further west has left us with
pretty high confidence in a dry Saturday here locally as highs
ranging from the mid 20s to lower 30s (N-S, respectively) locally.

This is a complex winter system that will likely evolve from the
ArkLaTex region E/NE through the TN Vly and eventually into the NE
CONUS from Saturday night through Sunday. While it seemed like
previous data runs had all but written off any notable impacts
locally, the latest trends, both deterministically and from an
ensemble perspective, suggest this perhaps may not entirely be the
case. GEFS/GEPS/EPS ensemble means have all taken considerable jumps
further to the NW with the boomerang re-curvature of the system from
the northern Gulf to near/west of the spine of the Appalachians
before eventually the primary energy transfers closer to the coast,
with the inland low becoming somewhat orphaned by later Sunday.

There are several things to break down regarding potential
accumulating wintry pcpn locally late Saturday night through Sunday.
The first, and perhaps most important, aspect will be the timing of
the transfer of energy from the initial inland low to the coastal
low sometime between Saturday night and Sunday night. The prevailing
guidance would suggest occlusion of the initial sfc low in MS/TN
Saturday night with the development of a secondary low toward SC by
Sunday morning. The occlusion of the low would signal a gradual loss
of baroclinicity associated with the inland low, which guidance
suggests may track from TN NE through the ern OH Vly during the day
on Sunday. The occlusion of the LL system, prompting the loss of
baroclinicity, due in part of the lack of arctic air building in
quickly from the NW, suggests a gradual decrease in lift/LL
convergence associated with any banded pcpn. In fact, there would
likely be frontolysis underway with this system as it tracks closer
to the ILN FA Sunday, leading to uncertainties in just how
widespread and/or intense any wintry pcpn may be. There is no sharp
temp gradient or strong frontogenetic axis to work with here,
especially as the coastal low becomes the primary one on Sunday with
explosive cyclogenesis occurring in the mid-Atlantic region.

With all of this being said, it cannot be ignored the obvious and
sudden shift to the NW with the inland low tracking to the NE
near/west of the Appalachians -- a climatologically-favorable track
for accumulating snow in the OH Vly. Although there remains some
positional variability that will ultimately play a significant role
in the evolution of the system and potential impacts locally, this
trend has shown itself almost unanimously across the GEFS/GEPS/EPS
ensemble quites. Most guidance would suggest that the column may get
/just/ warm enough to promote a mix of rain/snow during the
afternoon in N KY and south-central OH, with the predominant p-type
remaining snow elsewhere with a subzero (C) profile and ample
saturation in the DGZ coinciding/overlapping with some vertical
motion with the mid/upper level low tracking through the region.
Ensemble mean probabilities continue to suggest increasing potential
for light accumulations of snowfall (1"/3") or less near/SE of the I-
71 corridor on Sunday. These ensemble means do assume a 10:1 SLR,
which would likely just a bit higher than we would be dealing with
(we may be closer to 8:1 or 9:1, depending on location).
Nevertheless, the trends with the overall closed low tracking
further to the N/W, with implications on the track of the inland
(filling) low, have raised PoPs above the blended guidance for
Saturday night through Sunday and will introduce a broad-brushed HWO
mention for now. Certainly we are still several model runs away from
being able to hone-in on whether this system will be more of a
nuisance, or perhaps a bit more significant, so we will continue to
adjust the forecast as trends and patterns dictate.

Another "kicker" S/W will pivot SE from the Upper Midwest to the OH
Vly immediately behind the "main" system for Sunday night into
Monday morning. This system may have enough additional lift to
generate some snow showers during the day on Monday as temps remain
several degrees below seasonal norms. Have not added slight chance
PoPs yet for this time period as confidence remains low at this time
in the exact track and strength of this feature. But some lake-
effect/enhanced snow showers N of the immediate local area seem like
a good bet at this juncture for the start of the workweek.

[BookNerdCarp]

BGs take….

https://www.facebook.com/briangoodewav ... 130355602/

[Bgoney]

Fantastic write up from the boys , I love when they take the same things we have brought up and put it into a more refined Meteorological sort!!!!!! Looks like they are taking the GFS way more seriously than the EU , at this point , with the upper level low track

[tron777]

18Z GFS is a bit SE of the 12Z run A bit weaker with the system and a little faster as well. Thru 84 hours...

[tron777]

This is what we don't want. Primary gets up into middle TN then already begins to transfer its energy to the East Coast low currently forming over Eastern GA. This is happening Sunday morning. 12Z run did not do that until the low got up into NE TN. So that is an issue to keep an eye on. The timing of the energy transfer to the coastal.

[Bgoney]

The GFS may have a meltdown this run trying to figure out the transfer, it is really strugglling this run, but that is the complexity of the system.