January 2022 Weather Discussion

[Bgoney]

GFS hanging tough, and getting more juiced with each run. Would need the GEFs to back that up.

[tron777]

Awesome 500 Low track for Cincinnati.

ULLisAwesome.png

[winterstormjoe]

I hate to say this. But I hope the snow stays away. I believe I have the virus. Got a telehealth appointment this afternoon and hoping they will give the order to be tested. My brother has tested positive and I am around him quite abit. Symptoms started Saturday. Been having good days and bad days here.

Back to weather, that 0z gfs run was a doozy last night.

Hey JP, hope you feel better...
I got tested last week as I've been feeling like I have the virus as the symptoms were familiar to when I had covid in 10/20. But the tests came back negative and my doc says that it's probably these nasty colds that keep going around. Hope you can feel better to do some plowing if this snowstorm can pan out.

[winterstormjoe]

Just my thinking on the Sunday-Monday possible snowstorm, I do believe that we are going to get some snow out of it as the models seem to be trending the more middle ground now. Before it looked like clipper system moving through for late Friday-Saturday and then they trended west diving south to the Gulf coast states and now it's trending to hold back some to allow it to get stronger and go more north. Now, will it continue to go more north and we end up with snow changing to rain back to snow kind of deal or does it go back south some and we end up with minor accumulations. Or does it do a February 98 whopper kind of deal? My point is that I don't think we're going to get shafted from this system and actually may get something worth while this go around.

[tpweather]

Good afternoon and thanks to everyone for the well wishes. What is happening with the system this weekend? No doubt a clipper type system is heading southeast out of Canada and moving rather far south. If that was the only player then we would probably be missed to the south and probably get some light snow or flurries but cold. We have another piece of energy though that will be heading across the south central states and that is key to a much bigger system possible for us locally. Getting those pieces of energy to dance is important. The way the trough is looking to be lined up this promotes those two to meet and head northeast. Still need another 24 hours to see how these pieces of energy hopefully meet up and again timing is key and without those two dancing then the clipper like system will miss us to the south and probably form a east coast storm.

[tron777]

No 12Z RGEM or CMC run yet today. UKIE is in and it's been the furthest south model from the get go. It continues. Swing and a miss here but a nice snow storm for the Eastern TN Valley and App Mountain States into Interior New England. UKIE has done awful this winter though.

[cloudy72]

Good Evening. I have missed the forum the last week as my mom was admitted to the hospital on Wednesday and then today she was sent to a local rehab facility. I won't get into details but she will be 90 this year and has fallen 3 times in the past 6 months. I hope to have some time over the next few days to see what is going on.

Hey Tim - will keep your mom in our prayers!!

12z models so far quite exciting - Euro will be interesting for sure to see if these trends continue.

[tron777]

12Z GEFS - P-type members: I see more amp'ed up solutions then swings and misses.

GEFS.png

[tron777]

GEFS SLP Plot: I think we are seeing more NW members now versus 6Z. Still a good amount of spread mind you, but anyway the GFS and GEFS are absolutely looking good for snow here.

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_18.png

[tron777]

4" mean from the GEFS and that's at a 10:1 Ratio. Nice signal folks!

GEFSMean10to1.png

[Bgoney]

4" mean from the GEFS and that's at a 10:1 Ratio. Nice signal folks!


GEFSMean10to1.png

Yea , that'll work for me . EU should be interesting

[tron777]

4" mean from the GEFS and that's at a 10:1 Ratio. Nice signal folks!


GEFSMean10to1.png

Yea , that'll work for me . EU should be interesting

I don't expect it to show a direct hit, but a continued tick north would work for me just fine. Hopefully the CMC comes out at some point since it was the first foreign model to solidly follow the GFS.

[tron777]

Short Range Canadian or RGEM is slowly coming out on Pivotal Weather.

[tron777]

RGEM - Based on Hour 60, this run should come in a tick north of its 6Z run. Heights look to be a tad higher on this run vs 6Z so a good sign.

[tron777]

CMC is running now on Pivotal.

[tron777]

CMC is looking GFS like at Hour 72... It should come in a bit north of its 0Z run. Ought to be a nice run coming up...

[tron777]

12Z CMC: Not a bad run! A little less snow for Cincy / Metro due to the transfer to the coastal. Other then that a nice track and a nice run!

[Bgoney]

EU coming in stronger with the upper level support

[tron777]

12Z Euro is still going to be well S of guidance but it is going to be N of the 0Z run.

[Bgoney]

Slower, stronger , good trends

[tron777]

We get clipped by the Euro so it's a step in the right direction. Just what I wanted to see...

[Bgoney]

EU trend last 36 hrs.

trend-ecmwf_full-2022011212-f126.qpf_acc.us_ma.gif

[tron777]

Awaiting for EPS... Euro / UKIE against GFS / CMC / GEFS Place your bets... It's a little far out of range for the NAM and RGEM but it's close to their wheel house.

[tron777]

This system really isn't a clipper. It did not originate in Canada. It's really more of a hybrid Miller B type of system transferring its energy to the (we hope inland runner) and not a true East Coast low. Someone mentioned Feb 1998 and that is not the set up for that. We had a strong cut off upper low that was basically trapped over us for several days. Blizz of 1996 had an upper low that only slowly transferred its energy to the East Coast Low. I don't think that this system looks to be that strong like the 1996 event and no this is nothing like that storm to be honest either.

[tpweather]

Interesting runs today and like Bgoney mentioned the upper level support is something we always look for in these systems. The Euro really bombs this system east of the mountains so this tells me a system moving this way and getting stronger is always a good sign. This will also bring up some milder air so folks especially southeast of the area has a chance that some liquid precip could be added to the forecast. Fun and games headed this way and glad the Bengals game should be okay as love to have a fast track with the current offense we run

Just wanted to add to the above post by Les. I am not sure what system from 1996 or 1998. The current system we are watching is a clipper that arrives Thursday and Friday and dives southeast. As that happens a low forms somewhere in the GOM area and it sort of picks up the leftover energy from the original clipper and becomes its own storm. So no not a clipper that gains strength but the clipper does add energy to the systems that will emerge in the gom area. Hopefully I am correct on that Les