January 2022 Weather Discussion

[airwolf76]

12Z EPS out to 360 hours. Wow... whose ready?


EPS.gif

Yep Im ready for the cold and mostly dry conditions coming. my 10 day does not have much moisture in it. a couple days with a 30% chance. my guess it wont be that bone dry i am thinking we get another 1-3" snow in the next 10 days, we will see.

[mikeyp]

So close but so far models look like saturdays snow will be a miss to the south west this time. Good news, it is only Tuesday so it can change of course!

[tron777]

So close but so far models look like saturdays snow will be a miss to the south west this time. Good news, it is only Tuesday so it can change of course!

Good thing no one started a thread yet. We'll see if the stronger solutions come back. Also that big high in Southern and Eastern Canada is also having a say in how that system tracks. Looks like the high keeps NE flow at the surface here and ripping NW winds aloft. A swing and a miss to the SW as you said, Mike. CMC clips us. We'll see how the 12Z suite looks for it later.

[tron777]

11 so far here this morning.

[Bgoney]

Boooooh, the overnight west shift yet again. Only good thing out of 0z suite is its a very complex, multi player set-up (aren't they all) . the Ontario high has shifted way south/west the last 24hrs. What was once a fast moving great.laakes clipper is possibly now morphing into a gulf coast low. The wave of energy doesn't hit the pac west until Thursday morning , so expect more morphing to come

[tron777]

Boooooh, the overnight west shift yet again. Only good thing out of 0z suite is its a very complex, multi player set-up (aren't they all) . the Ontario high has shifted way south/west the last 24hrs. What was once a fast moving great.laakes clipper is possibly now morphing into a gulf coast low. The wave of energy doesn't hit the pac west until Thursday morning , so expect more morphing to come

A strange track too. Almost north to south, where most clipper systems tend to track to the SE. Kind of a strange track on the overnight runs.

[tron777]

From the boys:

Model solutions continue to show good spread regarding this
weekends weather system. There has been a noted general shift
west with this system.

Flow buckles as mid level energy digs southeast from the
Northern Plains into the OH/TN Valleys Saturday. Latest GFS
deterministic model solution has trended the farthest west and
keeps the pcpn west and south of ILN/s area until the system
pivots northeast with pcpn developing only over the south late
Saturday night into early Sunday. ECMWF has also trended west
with ILN/s southern counties on the northern periphery of the
pcpn band late Friday night/Saturday. Canadian solution follows
closer to this ECMWF trend but not quite as far south. Ensemble
solutions reflect these positional trends and show some very low
probabilities for measurable snow but there is good spread
depending on the model. This system is at day 5 and will need to
be watched as we get closer and the signal becomes clearer.

Due to spread in solutions, with continued uncertainty have
limited highest pops to chance pops Friday night, with low end
likely pops south Saturday, and then chance for Saturday night.

Based on the trend west and south, have colder thermal fields,
so have all snow for p-type. Have cooler temperatures with
Saturday's highs from the mid 20s north to the mid 30s south.

As the system shifts east pcpn may linger into early Sunday but
a drying trend is expected to develop. Highs to range from 25
to 35.

[dce]

Let's face it. This winter has been horrible if you like snow. It can't get any worse. It can be as bad, but not worse. Cool and wet, or cold and dry. I hope this upcoming cold pattern can produce. My concern is that this type of cold can overwhelm the pattern and keep the storm track well south of us. Realistically, we are looking at a seasonal snowfall of 10-15 inches at best. Sure, we could hit a good stretch for a bit and possibly still exceed that, but that would not be the likely scenario. Let's face it, we could end up with less than that as a possibility also. It's still only mid January, so who knows?

[nkyoutdoors]

Let's not forget last season which also was terrible until February, then wham... an entire season's snowfall in a month with right at 21.9" recorded at CVG. https://spectrumnews1.com/oh/columbus/w ... -february-

[Bgoney]

Update from the BOM'rs on MJO status. No surprises.




moderate to strong pulse of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) moved generally eastwards across the western Pacific region in the past fortnight. This pulse is forecast to weaken, with some climate models predicting it will become indiscernible in the coming week. In addition to the MJO, equatorial Rossby (ER) wave activity appears to have contributed to tropical weather patterns around northern Australia and over the South-west Pacific region in the past week, assisting the formation of tropical cyclones Tiffany and Cody.

While the influence of the MJO is likely to diminish, the ER wave may lead to further enhanced weather across the South-west Pacific in the coming fortnight. The ER wave is not expected to significantly influence northern Australia's weather patterns in the coming fortnight. However, if the MJO remains discernible and continues tracking east towards the tropical Americas, it would typically increase the likelihood of drier than average conditions developing over tropical Australia

rmm.phase.Last40days.gif.small.gif

[tron777]

The Rossby waves have really helped to alter the Pacific Pattern to a colder one for us. Active polar and STJ. Just have to wait and see if it produces.

[winterstormjoe]

Looks like the I95 corridor may get a nice hit (again) from this Gulf system as it rounds the corner. Ugh!

[Bgoney]

Boooooh, the overnight west shift yet again. Only good thing out of 0z suite is its a very complex, multi player set-up (aren't they all) . the Ontario high has shifted way south/west the last 24hrs. What was once a fast moving great.laakes clipper is possibly now morphing into a gulf coast low. The wave of energy doesn't hit the pac west until Thursday morning , so expect more morphing to come

A strange track too. Almost north to south, where most clipper systems tend to track to the SE. Kind of a strange track on the overnight runs.

I'm starting to wonder if even a more west track, at this point , would be beneficial. Could interact more with the SW cut-off energy and and mature into a stronger low in the deep south and move up the Apps.? Maybe we want it to keep going west/south

[tron777]

Boooooh, the overnight west shift yet again. Only good thing out of 0z suite is its a very complex, multi player set-up (aren't they all) . the Ontario high has shifted way south/west the last 24hrs. What was once a fast moving great.laakes clipper is possibly now morphing into a gulf coast low. The wave of energy doesn't hit the pac west until Thursday morning , so expect more morphing to come

A strange track too. Almost north to south, where most clipper systems tend to track to the SE. Kind of a strange track on the overnight runs.

I'm starting to wonder if even a more west track, at this point , would be beneficial. Could interact more with the SW cut-off energy and and mature into a stronger low in the deep south and move up the Apps.? Maybe we want it to keep going west/south

Wondering that too. It does us no good the way things look right now. That would be a hell of a come back. To go from a cutter to a swing and a mess to the Apps Runner. Our full range of emotions would be open lol

[airwolf76]

I was just getting an update on the weekend. it looks like that system is going to drop so far south that even northern Ga could be getting a major snow out of it, that would really be something for down there if these models are correct and snows that far south. getting a 6-12" type snowstorm in Ga and South Carolina is historic . it doesn't happen often

[airwolf76]

Boooooh, the overnight west shift yet again. Only good thing out of 0z suite is its a very complex, multi player set-up (aren't they all) . the Ontario high has shifted way south/west the last 24hrs. What was once a fast moving great.laakes clipper is possibly now morphing into a gulf coast low. The wave of energy doesn't hit the pac west until Thursday morning , so expect more morphing to come

A strange track too. Almost north to south, where most clipper systems tend to track to the SE. Kind of a strange track on the overnight runs.

I'm starting to wonder if even a more west track, at this point , would be beneficial. Could interact more with the SW cut-off energy and and mature into a stronger low in the deep south and move up the Apps.? Maybe we want it to keep going west/south

that would be something for sure. i cant see it going that far west to join forces with the small short wave coming down from canada. it was just way out to sea and now its close to the coast, my guess is it will hug the coast or remain a bit off shore at best

[tron777]

Something else to ponder... that little front runner wave moving thru here on Thursday... That is also going to impact the heights out in front of it as well as track. That Thurs system, is probably going to cause the Sat one to ride south and west. Kind of make sense. Like with 1/6... that Great Lakes low screwed out the flow for it. Same thing might be happening here too.

[tron777]

Something else to ponder... that little front runner wave moving thru here on Thursday... That is also going to impact the heights out in front of it as well as track. That Thurs system, is probably going to cause the Sat one to ride south and west. Kind of makes sense. Like with 1/6... that Great Lakes low screwed up the flow for it. Same thing might be happening here too.

[tron777]

GFS is south but it cuts the system more to the west so it's inland now and does not come up the coast. The snow would not come in until Sunday now based on this solution. Best amounts south and east, lowest north and west. I would like to see the GFS continue the trends that I am seeing on the 12Z run to be honest. That would work for us. Upper low is much stronger on this run and closes off well to our south.

[Bgoney]

Boooooh, the overnight west shift yet again. Only good thing out of 0z suite is its a very complex, multi player set-up (aren't they all) . the Ontario high has shifted way south/west the last 24hrs. What was once a fast moving great.laakes clipper is possibly now morphing into a gulf coast low. The wave of energy doesn't hit the pac west until Thursday morning , so expect more morphing to come

A strange track too. Almost north to south, where most clipper systems tend to track to the SE. Kind of a strange track on the overnight runs.

I'm starting to wonder if even a more west track, at this point , would be beneficial. Could interact more with the SW cut-off energy and and mature into a stronger low in the deep south and move up the Apps.? Maybe we want it to keep going west/south

Wondering that too. It does us no good the way things look right now. That would be a hell of a come back. To go from a cutter to a swing and a mess to the Apps Runner. Our full range of emotions would be open lol

Well , there you go. GFS 12z wondering the same thing!!!!

[tron777]

Boooooh, the overnight west shift yet again. Only good thing out of 0z suite is its a very complex, multi player set-up (aren't they all) . the Ontario high has shifted way south/west the last 24hrs. What was once a fast moving great.laakes clipper is possibly now morphing into a gulf coast low. The wave of energy doesn't hit the pac west until Thursday morning , so expect more morphing to come

A strange track too. Almost north to south, where most clipper systems tend to track to the SE. Kind of a strange track on the overnight runs.

I'm starting to wonder if even a more west track, at this point , would be beneficial. Could interact more with the SW cut-off energy and and mature into a stronger low in the deep south and move up the Apps.? Maybe we want it to keep going west/south

Wondering that too. It does us no good the way things look right now. That would be a hell of a come back. To go from a cutter to a swing and a mess to the Apps Runner. Our full range of emotions would be open lol

Well , there you go. GFS 12z wondering the same thing!!!!

Slower / stronger with the upper low. We need that... nice run actually. The GFS heard you this morning.

[Bgoney]

It's turned into a whole new ballgame, per GFS. The Great lakes clipper scenario featured a miss or low ceiling event. The stronger Gulf Low features a miss or higher ceiling event. Hmmmm

[tron777]

It's turned into a whole new ballgame, per GFS. The Great lakes clipper scenario featured a miss or low ceiling event. The stronger Gulf Low features a miss or higher ceiling event. Hmmmm

Exactly. Need the system for Thurs to be weak and not dig as much so the heights will be higher for the Gulf Low to work with. Exactly right.

[tron777]

12Z CMC is a little stronger with the system as well,. although not to the extent of the GFS. UKIE is way south as down by the Gulf Coast with the low track. GEFS seems to back what the OP GFS is selling.

[tron777]

12Z GEFS on the left, 6Z run on the right:

GEFSComparison.png